Torie's U.S. House Prediction Spreadsheet

Self | September 6, 2002 | Self

[Torie]

Below is my updated spreadsheet on the House races. I know you were all waiting breathlessly for it. The predicted GOP gain has dropped from 4 to 1 since I last posted this about 2 months ago.

Net GOP changes from redistricting and plus close seat calls	
		
Georgia	        -2		Florida 	3	
Md 	        -2		Mich	        2	
Oklahoma	-1		Penn	        2	
Tenn     	-1	        Texas	        2	
New York	-1		Arizona	        1	
New Mexico	-1		Minnesota	1	
			        Nev	        1	
			        Ohio 	        1	
					
Total	        -8		               13	
Net GOP				                5	
Existing	211			224	7	
Change	         -5			        5
Post Elec       206			229    12	
Vulnerable GOP		        Vulnerable Dem		
Riley (AL open)	1 0.510	        Skeen (NM open) 1  0.490
Arizona (new)	1 0.510	        Morella (MD)	1  0.490
FL (Thurman)	1 0.510	        Matheson (Utah)	1  0.450
Sununu (NH open)1 0.510	        Georgia 3rd	1  0.450
So Dak (open)	1 0.510	        Colo 7th (new)	1  0.450
Indiana (Roemer)1 0.525	        Maine 2nd(open) 1  0.450
Johnson (Conn)	1 0.525	        Boswell (Iowa)	1  0.300
Nevada (new)	1 0.525	        4th CD (TN open)1  0.300
Luther (MN 2nd)	1 0.550	        Georgia 11th	1  0.300
Hayes (N.C.)	1 0.550	        Pomeroy (N.D.)	1  0.300
Simmons (Conn)	1 0.600	        Hoeffel (Penn)	1  0.300
Penn (6th)(open)1 0.600	        Condit (Calif)	1  0.300
Nussle (Iowa)	1 0.600	        Moore (Kansas)	1  0.300
Iowa (Latham)   1 0.625			
Penn (Gekas)	1 0.650			
W.V. (Capito)   1 0.700			
KY (Northrup)	1 0.700			
New Jersey (5th)1 0.700			
PA(Toomey)(15th)1 0.700			
Mich(Open)(11th)1 0.700			
Mich(Open)(10h)	1 0.700			
Iowa (Leach)    1 0.700			
Total	        22 13.200		       13  4.880
			Gain			Gain
Existing		211			224	
Net Change	         -5                   	  5
                        206                     229
Best Dem	        228	17		207 -17
Best GOP		193    -18		242  18
				      R toss +  R Toss -
Toss net				4.880	-8.800
Net Toss	                                -3.920
Existing		211		 224	 0
Predicted		209.92	-1.08    225.08  1.08

[Coop]

You're still putting MD down for minus 2, huh? From what I've seen lately, Morella is looking good against all four of her prospective opponents (though obviously still vulnerable), and Helen what'shername is competitive as well. I've got fingers crossed the GOP gets one of these seats.

[Coop]

Wait a sec. Am I reading that right? You've got Morella listed as a vulnerable Dem?

[lasereye]

The predicted GOP gain has dropped from 4 to 1 since I last posted this about 2 months ago.

Not a good trend. In another month it'll be a loss of 2 or 3, and by election day, who knows? Hopefully the GOP candidates have more money to spend in the key races, but I doubt it.

[BlackRazor]

Wait a sec. Am I reading that right? You've got Morella listed as a vulnerable Dem?

I noticed that too. He also has Tim Roemer's seat listed as Vulnerable GOP. I sent Torie a private FREEPmail asking him to explain this. I have a similiar breakdown of all the House races myself, and look forward to this discussion.

[Torie]

Vulnerable Dem means seats I have called for the Dems, but have odds of at least 30% of going the other way. I know it is confusing.

[Torie]

See reply number 6. Thanks. The appelation has nothing to do with which party currently holds the seat. It has to do with the odds that having called the seat for one party or the other, it could go the other way.

[Coop]

Hopefully the GOP candidates have more money to spend in the key races, but I doubt it.

The Republicans are definitely in better shape financially than the Dems. And Dubya ain't even warmed up yet!

[BlackRazor]

If a particular race does not appear on your list, does that mean you don't believe it is realistically competitive, or could it simply mean you think the incumbent party will hold the seat (by however small a margin)?

[Torie]

I means that the underdog has less than a 30% chance of winning.

[Torie]

Not much here really that is new and exciting, but whatever.

[BlackRazor]

I had every one of your listed races on my top-tier list, with the lone exception of PA-13 (Hoeffel), which is on my second-tier longshot list.

I did have several races on my top-tier or "tweener" lists that don't appear on yours. Just for comparison/discussion, those would be:

AR-04; CO-04; FL-22; FL-24; IL-19; IN-07; KY-04; MS-03; MN-06; NH-02; NM-01; OH-03; OH-17; PA-18; TX-05

[Torie]

Yah, your addendum of seats pop up from time to time, but I don't think any of them are in play frankly (it is mostly spin) except maybe for the seat Dickey is running in in Arkansas, where he seems competitive in the polls. But I don't see his chances as hitting 30% yet, although he is close. Some seats, like the Colorado 4th, Bush carried by over 20%.

[BlackRazor]

Agreed - most of the extra ones I listed have a definite favorite. If I had to pick the ones that I thought were truly competitive, I'd say IL-19, NM-01, and possibly NH-02. It looks like OH-03 is an all but certain pick-up for the GOP. I also have OH-17 listed simply because of the fact that Traficant's name will remain on the ballot. I'm not sure how much impact that will have on the Dem candidate, but I think it's worth keeping an eye on.

[Torie]

Well one can argue about Heather Wilson and Bass in NH, but they are running way ahead in the polls. I can't imagine Shimkus losing, unless the governor's race has coattails, which I doubt. Gore won the Traficant seat by 2-1, so I don't see how Benjamin could slip in.

[nunya bidness]

Thanks for putting this together. Let me know when you update it.

[BoomerBob]

Torie, I would adjust your CO 7th CD as a slight lean to the GOP (I know Gore eeked out a small win in this district in 2000 but there are several local factors that have translated into a 5-8 point lead for the GOP).

[Torie]

Yes, I watched the candidates in the Colorado 77th on CSPAN, and Pubbie was much more impressive. But the Gore plus Nader vote in the district was 54%, and it really has a slight Dem lean. I must await a poll before I adjust my odds. But it is ripe I suspect for an adjustment unless the macro climate for Pubbies deteriorates. This is one district where a weak economy will hurt the Pubbie, since the district has a large blue collar component.

[Torie]

You are welcome, and I will. Regards.

[crasher]

Thanks for the update. I agree with the vast majority of it.

One slight disagreement is, I would flip your odds for AZ (new) and NM (open). I think the GOP has the edge in NM, and the Dems have the edge in AZ.