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Posted on 03/20/2002 12:51:00 AM PST by Jim Robinson
Excerpted from The Washington Times | 3/20/02 | Greg Pierce
Inside Politics/Cold as ice (Gray Davis)/Strategic advice (Bill Simon)
Cold as ice
"After three years in office and an easy primary win, [California] Gov. Gray Davis faces a strange problem: More California voters than ever actively dislike him," the Los Angeles Times reports. "When asked why, in a Times poll last month, voters most often blamed his handling of the power crisis. Beyond performance-related gripes, many said in follow-up interviews, that he seems soulless and ambitious, a tactitian who sees all issues through the lens of political advance," reporter Robin Fields writes. "'He's as cold as ice,' said John Cohen, a Los Angeles Democrat who voted for Davis in 1998, but is undecided about whether to do so again in November. "The pragmatic Davis has never pretended to offer much in the way of warm fuzzies. "Still, heading into the long middle section of his re-election bid, he faces a decision. Should he try to woo the disaffected? Or should he use his resources to target his Republican opponent, Bill Simon Jr., accepting voters' reluctant embrace? Put another way, must Davis be liked to win?"
Strategic advice
Rep. Bill Thomas, California Republican, said there is a clear strategy for Bill Simon to win the California governor's race: Spend lots of money now to define incumbent Democratic Gov. Gray Davis for the electorate. "I don't believe Republicans can win by running a positive campaign with someone who doesn't have a track record. I think what you have to do is define Davis, so when you do run, people know who you're running against. And you've got to do it early," Mr. Thomas said. But he said the task won't be easy: "Starting dead even following the primary, our chances are pretty slim. It would take a very creative campaign, and I don't see that coming." Winning would duplicate the feat of another conservative, Ronald Reagan, who won the Republican primary in much the same way as Mr. Simon before capturing the governorship. "With all due respect to my friend Bill Simon, I know Bill Simon; he's no Ronald Reagan — only because he brings to the race so many potential political liabilities in terms of cheap shots, which Davis is master at," he said. Still, he said, it's not clear that Richard Riordan, the liberal former mayor of Los Angeles whom Mr. Simon overtook late in the race to win the nomination, would have been a better candidate. "You can't say that based on the way he died in the final week, and one of the reasons you have primaries is to see if people can perform," he said.
I think Simon will do just fine. Voters like a positive message, as Reagan repeatedly showed, and Simon is going to offer SOLUTIONS to problems, not just hit Davis.
Why people in DC feel compelled to open their mouths and blab to every paper about every little thought they have is amazing to me.
But he said the task won't be easy: "Starting dead even following the primary, our chances are pretty slim. It would take a very creative campaign, and I don't see that coming."
I don't see the reason for being so negative. One recent poll shows Simon up by seven (which is hardly "starting dead even" against an incumbent Gov. of a large state).
Also. Whenever an incumbent statewide candidate polls under 50% in a two-way poll (s)he is in a vulnerable position. The fact that Davis has >50% negatives and is seven points down to a reletive unknown says that the people of California don't want him to be Gov. Heck - if he keeps it up he may draw a green/lib to run as a third party candidate.
None of this should be taken to mean that Simon is some kind of shoe-in (he is "out of step" with most of California), but it's far from "our chances are pretty slim".
JMHO - but,
IMRight
I know Bill Simon; he's no Ronald Reagan — only because he brings to the race so many potential political liabilities in terms of cheap shots...Too many potential political liabilities, Bill Simon??? Apparently Bill Thomas stayed too long in the beltway!!! This guy had no idea who he's talking about. He should get back home to smell the coffee.
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