CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Pro-hamas / Antifa elements are calling for emergency protests as early as last night (see the Met Gala). These protests are anticipated to spread across major cities in the next few days. Exact nature is not yet certain, but I suspect that a large number will consist of highway blockages and some seizures of buildings.
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New York Police declared a Level 3 Mobilization as Pro-Palestine rioters broke thru barriers and clashed with police outside the Met Gala.
Multiple Reports say that multiple arrests have been made law enforcement.
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Protestors at MIT evacuated their compound on time as ordered by the college, only to return back into the camp (with additional high school aged protestors) - “technically “ obeying the college’s demands while maintaining the protest encampment.
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The tech publication Wired reported Thursday that the Three Percenter, or III%er, militia is again proliferating on Facebook ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
The Three Percenters are a national network of militias, the name being a reference to the fact that only about 3% of colonists took up arms against King George in the American Revolution. The Three Percenters were involved in both the Whitmer kidnap plot and the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol Hill uprising.
However, what Wired didn’t mention in its report is that the Three Percenters were heavily infiltrated by the FBI. In fact, the FBI used the Three Percenters as a front group in the Whitmer plot—going so far as to have its informants run fake III%er Facebook groups.
OBSERVATION - One needs to realize the hard fact that the feds have infiltrated most of the more outspoken militia type organizations out there. This was brought to the deadly forefront during the Malheur standoff of many years ago. Casual PERSEC, accepting members at face value is most dangerous. With increasing tensions and emotions as the election nears, it is expected that many will organize in opposition to the violent potential of the leftists to win at all costs. The J6 ‘trials’ show that the deep state will stop at nothing to jail any threats from such militia-like organizations.
A warning to all - even those with prepper support groups - closely screen new members.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
Israeli operation in Rafah increases the potential for sympathetic, lone wolf attacks here and globally.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) is back in the Red Sea and has been deployed for more than 200 days, according to USNI News Fleet and Marine Tracker data. Ike transited the Suez Canal late last month, moving into the Mediterranean Sea after operating in the Red Sea for almost four months, USNI News previously reported. The carrier then stopped in Souda Bay, Crete, for its first publicly announced port call since departing on deployment in October.
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The American military battalion stationed in Lithuania since 2019 will now remain there indefinitely, extending beyond the initially planned departure in 2025
The decision to extend the stay of the U.S. military forces was announced by Lithuanian Defense Minister Laurynas Kasčiūnas during his visit to the U.S.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
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Speaker Johnson’s position is being protected from being vacated by the house democrats lead by Pelosi.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden had the United States Military Academy’s Black Knights to the White House on Monday to present the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy to them for winning the competition among military academies.
Reading his remarks from the teleprompter -
“We’re also joined bry [slurring] Army’s biggest fans,” Biden said. “Bill and Steve of the..radio show...Crawdads... Countdown to Kickoff.” You can see him struggling to read it and his eyes and body following, moving to his left, as he tried to read it. “
OBSERVATION - I am surprised that he has lasted this long in office. I thought he would be out within a year, but his handlers have kept him drugged up and carefully (until recent) crafted his interactions with the public. He’s not all there upstairs - and he has the nuclear codes. The big question going into November is how long the left will tolerate his increasing self destruction before pulling some kind of effort to swap him out of the candidacy for president?
Phillipines –
Philippines states that it will not retaliate with fire cannons when attacked by Chinese vessels in order to avoid escalating the incidents.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russia will perceive the appearance of F-16 jets in Ukraine as carriers of nuclear weapons regardless of their modification - Russian Foreign Ministry
Russia reportedly called in ambassadors of France and Britain to warn them about becoming more involved in the Ukraine conflict, threatening to stoke their capitol cities with nuclear warheads if they crossed Moscow’s ‘red lines’.
Kerch Bridge update –
There is additional evidence that Russia has pretty much discontinued using the bridge to transfer military supplies into Ukraine, relying more on an expanded rail network from Russia into eastern Ukraine. The bridge is a key supply lifeline for Russian forces in Crimea and the southern fronts.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 60-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Scattered periods of rain..
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian channel Fighterbomber reports that the crew of a Russian Su-34 died today, claiming the jet went down in battle.
Ukrainian forces launched successful counterattacks south of Ivanivske near Bakhmut, repelling Russian assaults & pushing them back over 500m, with the use of FPV drones & kamikaze strikes. This attack hits the flank of the salient where Russia is attempting to secure a crossing of a strategic canal southeast of Chasiv Yar.
Outlook —
Though put on the back burner of news due to the Israeli operation in Rafah, fighting on the eastern Ukraine front continues to be fierce.
The counter attack on Russian forces may be indicative of the resupply of arms and ammo reaching Ukraine defenders and the Russians being caught off guard having faced a retreating Ukraine for the past month. Securing exposed flanks may resulting in Russian slowing down its advances. It does not appear that Ukraine has the forces capable of cutting off the Russian salients in the near term, but does indicate that it can make life miserable for them.
Russian rhetoric towards the coming delivery of F-16s is noted, but it currently falls into the often used tactic of escalate to de-esculate tactic. It has been used to try to force western nations to decrease support to Ukraine , one that has not succeeded so far.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel starts the Rafah operation
- Hamas accuses Israel of not negotiating in good faith on a hostage/cease fire agreement.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
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Hamas: We call on the United States and the international community to put pressure on Israel to stop the escalation in Rafah
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Al Jazeera has been banned in Israel, please note Al Jazeera is ALSO banned in the following countries:
- Saudi Arabia
- Jordan
- United Arab Emirates
- Bahrain
- Egypt
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
A Hamas command and control center located in central Gaza at an active UNRWA location was precisely struck by IAF fighter jets. The location served as a staging ground for multiple attacks on IDF troops and humanitarian aid distribution efforts as well as a weapons supply facility for Hamas terrorists.
Shortly thereafter, Israel initiated its operation to clear out the last Hamas stronghold in Rafah overnight. It quickly pushed into and along the Gaza/Egypt border and took control of the Gaza side of the Rafah border crossing. IDF reports that at least 20 terrorists were killed, 3 Hamas tunnels were destroyed, and a car bomb which was attempting to strike a tank was also destroyed; with Israeli Force suffering no casualties.
The Israel Defense Force has announced that last night’s operation against Eastern Rafah in the Southern Gaza Strip was carried out by forces of the 401st “Iron Tracks” Armor Brigade and the 84th “Givati” Brigade alongside Special Forces Units.
Hamas attempted to stall the operation by claiming to have agreed to an Egyptian peace plan, but that so called plan was shown to be bogus within hours of the operations start.
Part of the Hamas proposal saw a change in previous Israeli demands, with the release of “33 Hostages” by Hamas being changed to “The bodies of 33 Hostages both alive and dead” which possibly indicates that Hamas no longer has even 33 hostages left alive in the Gaza Strip.
Israel has not indicated which direction the operation will move onto next. Current objectives of securing the Gaza/Egypt border seems to be first priority.
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Egyptian Defense Officials are reporting that the readiness level of military forces, in the Northern Sinai Peninsula near the border of the Gaza Strip, have been raised to Maximum Alert. Israeli Channel 12 News reports that a large group of Gazans tried to enter Egypt last night from Rafah but we’re beaten back by the Egyptian Army.
There are unconfirmed reports that Hamas is planning on blowing up a section of the Egyptian wall to try to facilitate uncontrolled exodus of gazans into Egypt with the goal of hamas fighters trying to blend in with the civilian refugees to escape the IDF.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between IDF and Hezbollah.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces continues to raid numerous areas, arresting terrorism suspects.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Calls by multiple nations for an unconditional ceasefire by Israel and a stop to the Rafah operation.
——— FORECAST ————————-
I expect a temporary pause today as IDF consolidates their gains, sweeps for tunnels and isolated terror groups before moving onto their next objective.
IMHO, I expect that one main thrust will be to continue to secure the border zone ( a northwesterly direction) with Egypt. This would keep the Egyptians happy by Israel stopping any attempts for refugee breakout that the Egyptian military would have to otherwise deal with. Then Israel will pivot to the northeast and pincer in from Israel with additional forces moving to the NW. This will still allow refugees to flee to designated safe zones. Waiting additional Israeli warnings to escape imminent operations just like the one that preceded the overnight operations.
Hamas tried to play the hostage card, but over played their hand. First targeting a relief supply entrance with rockets/mortars, then refusing to negotiate a deal, then at the last minute claiming to ‘agree’ to some proposal Israel hadn’t seen, then realizing they had conjured up the ‘plan’ out of thin air.
I seriously doubt there will be any kind of a ceasefire / hostage agreement now. Hamas apparently doesn’t have the leverage any more. The international community will cry for a ceasefire but at this stage it will fall on deaf ears, particularly since this same international community has been silent over the Hamas retaining and treatment of hostages so far.
Iran / Hezbollah and the “Islamic Resistance” have been relatively silent so far concerning the Rafah operation. I think Iran has pretty much written off Hamas as a combat force and will only offer lip service levels of support . Hezbollah faces a more immediate concern as Israel continues to bleed it dry thru a thousand cuts. I think Hezbollah is falling into the dangerous ‘fighting the last war’ mindset and is having difficulty adjusting to the new Israeli mentality of fighting, exhibited in part by the actions in Gaza. This has been made worse thru the losses of so many key leaders in Hezbollah and IRGC. Again, I don’t see Israel pivoting north for the next several month, or at least until they have a good handle on the Rafah operation. That doesn’t mean that Hezbollah isn’t capable of launching a preemptive strike, but by all appearances Israel is ready for that contingency.
Saudi Arabia –
A lot of rumors that the crown prince faced an assassination attempt, but those rumors appear to be false.
Misc of Note –
So many threat vectors coming together that it is becoming hard to track them. Any one of them could be triggered at any time, with secondary effects causing adjacent vectors to trigger. The magnitude of such a ‘perfect storm’ scenario are staggering. Unless there is some kind of divine intervention (and no, I do not necessarily believe Trump is that intervention at this go round), things are being put into place that will spin apart and do so quickly.
In using the information that I scan and relay to you in these posts for my own preparedness, options are running low. Most of the “traditional” preparedness advice for TEOTWAWKI may not be sufficient. Hard news and hard on the normalcy bias, even here in the Redoubt where many of the impacts will be diluted but still hit with the force of an after shock.
My recommendation - reinforce the basics - water, food, comms, medical/sanitation, security, etc. And do so as quickly as possible.
I remember WAYYY back when, in the late 1990's, when I was with the Western New York militia. There was a guy who ran things who, in retrospect, was obviously FBI. There was also a woman who orbited him, who also in retrospect was obviously a female agent.
One of the guys in the group began altering firearms to include illegal 'fun switches'. Well wouldn't ya know! He got raided and caught some Federal charges! What a coinky-dink!
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
With all bouncing around the world, movement towards the approval of the WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ is flying below the radar. Final meeting is scheduled for the latter part of the month.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
The threat of a Trump assassination has reared its head by one of the lefts talking heads. Former White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki fantasized about Trump dying before the 2024 election on a Tuesday morning appearance on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.” Psaki fantasized about all the ways Trump can be eliminated this election season.
“Maybe Donald Trump will go away. Maybe he’ll go to jail. Maybe he will die…..”
OBSERVATION - She is not the first to voice such a desire for the death of Trump. These revelations of the desire to kill Trump illuminate the deep, dark pit of current leftist thinking and many see such statements as potentially conditioning the masses for such an attempt. As questionable at this stage of the election cycle some of these polls are - it seems the left is taking them very seriously and even beginning to fear a blowout of monumental proportions. This will drive further radical actions to get Trump out of the race, especially as the law fare efforts are falling apart.
One thing that will trigger a violent response from the center-right is an assassination.
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There are stll a few campus protest tent villages holding out at liberal colleges.
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Antifa / pro-hamas are calling for emergency protests to stop the Israeli operations in Rafah.
Antifa elements in Black bloc showed up to disrupt various presentations / meetings, such as one by Charlie Kirk at UW.
One thing clearly noted is the improvement in personal body armor by the black bloc elements. More tactical (military ) helmets, full face masks, light weight body armor (mostly non bullet proof), improved foot wear, a tactical gloves, etc. In a hand to hand situation they appear to be ready. One important thing to remember is that part of their tactical ‘doctrine’ would include armed elements further back that could in essence provide overwatch fire if necessary. The display of these better equipped forces raise red flags for predicted violence later this summer.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
Israeli operation in Rafah increases the potential for sympathetic, lone wolf attacks here and globally.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
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Judge Cannon has indefinitely postponed the classified document case against President Trump following revelations and admission by the prosecutor that the govt tampered with evidence.
Bragg’s case against trump is imploding as well as prosecutors dismantled their own case via their own witnesses.
Biden / Harris Watch –
According to a Washington Post-Ipsos poll, black voters’ desire to vote in the 2024 general election has fallen off since 2020, which could be worrisome for President Joe Biden.
The poll found that 62% of black voters said they were “absolutely certain to vote,” which is down from 74% who said they were certain to vote in June 2020. The Biden campaign recently announced it would spend $25 million trying to reach key demographics of voters in battleground states in what some have called “the largest and earliest investment in Black media for a reelection campaign in history.”
Younger black voters showed the biggest drop in enthusiasm. Only 41% aged 18-39 said they are certain they will vote in the 2024 general election.
OBSERVATION - Don’t say whoopee too fast but this poll tracks with other similar ones that show support sinking fast.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT as of April 20, 2024
Illegal Immigration –
The president elect of Panama has promised to close down illegals migrating thru the country.
There has been a spike in military aged men from China being intercepted along the Californian border with Mexico.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Putin began his fifth term as Russian President on May 7 and stressed Russia’s need for unchallenged autocratic rule while indirectly calling for victory in Ukraine.
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French troops will become a target for the Russian army if they find themselves in the Ukrainian conflict zone - Russian Foreign Ministry
Logistics –
Reports that Russia has significantly ramped up its production of arms and ammo in anticipation of a summer offensive.
Further reports that NK provided ballistic missiles are largely inaccurate and often blow up in flight. Problems also persist with NK supplied artillery rounds.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 60-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Scattered periods of rain..
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Busy overnight as Russia launched a large deep missile attack. Ukrainian air defense shot down 33 of 45 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 4 of 4 Kaliber cruise missiles, 2 of 2 Kh-59/Kh-69 missiles, 20 of 21 Shahed drones overnight. Russia also launched 1 Kh-47M2 missile, 2 ballistic Iskander-M missiles, 1 cruise missile Iskander-K. Lviv region in western Ukraine as well as the Kyiv region were targeted.
Poland reportedly scrambled aircraft as a precaution.
Ukrainian forces successfully struck a fuel storage depot in Russian-occupied Luhansk Oblast, using at least one US-suppled MGM-140 ATACMS tactical ballistic missile.
Ground combat subsided slightly overnight, but Russia continues to press its main attacks in the Chasiv Yar and Ocheretyne areas.
Ukrainian counterintelligence investigators have foiled a Russian plot to assassinate President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other top military and political figures, Ukraine’s state security service said Tuesday.
Two colonels in the State Guard of Ukraine, which protects top officials, were detained on suspicion of enacting the plan drawn up by Russia’s Federal Security Service, a statement said. The colonels were recruited before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, according to the statement.
Outlook —
It has been a while since the last major Russian missile assault, suggesting that supplies may be running low. Ukraine use of ATACAMS on petroleum targets, especially if they use cluster munition ones, has the potential to really harm Russian oil supplies both domestically as well as for military support.
More evidence that US munitions are quickly reaching embattled Ukraine forces in the Chasiv Yar and Ocheretyne regions as Russian advances appear to be on the brink of stalling out. Now Russian forces have to contend with Ukrainian artillery support they didn’t have to worry about previously.
I expect that Russia will continue to push its efforts in those two regions to gain as much ground as possible before the effects of a re-armed Ukraine can take full effect.
Belarus -
Belarus military forces, and in particular those with nuclear capable missiles, conducted a readiness exercise over the past few days.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Confirmation from the US of deliberate delays of precision munitions in an effort to dissuade the Rafah operation.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
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Israel has reopened the Kerem Shalom Crossing with the Gaza Strip for humanitarian aid after it was shuttered on Sunday following a deadly rocket attack
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Channel 12 reports that a very tense call between Israeli and US officials about the hostage deal occurred prior to the start of the Rafah operation. The Israelis were very upset and concerned about the position taken by the US about the fake Hamas deal. The US told them they refused to reject it flatly and instead said it was a “counter offer.” IMHO, I think it’s related to what was reported in Axios, that Israel believes the US had a part in this deception. Israel, under massive pressure from the US in the past month, comprised to crazy levels while Hamas didn’t move an inch. I think Israel believes the US wants them to compromise even further.
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A senior US administration official confirmed on Tuesday that the US paused a shipment of bombs to Israel last week over concerns that Israel was approaching a decision on launching a full-scale assault on the southern Gaza city of Rafah, The Associated Press reported.
The official said the decision to pause the shipment was made last week and no final decision had been made yet on whether to proceed with the shipment at a later date.
The shipment which was paused was supposed to consist of 1,800 2,000-pound bombs and 1,700 500-pound bombs, according to the official, with the focus of U.S. concern being the larger explosives and how they could be used in a dense urban setting.
The confirmation follows a report by Axios’ Barak Ravid that the Biden administration had stopped a shipment of US-made ammunition to Israel last week.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/389587
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Overnight, there were further Israeli air strikes in the Gaza Strip, hours after Israeli forces backed by tanks took control of the Palestinians side of the key Rafah crossing on the border with Egypt.
The Israeli bombardment was particularly intense around Rafah. The crossing remained closed on Wednesday morning, but the Israeli military said it was reopening the nearby Kerem Shalom crossing, which had been closed for four days because of Hamas rocket fire.
Further ground advances, other than those for immediate tactical positioning, appear to remain at a pause. Some media sources are suggesting that the territory gained in the initial attack is being prepared as the jumping-off point for the main thrust into the city.
A secondary effort may be to ratchet up pressure on Hamas to agree to a real ceasefire deal, not the bogus agreement that Hamas said it would accept just minutes before the attack on the border crossing began. Combat would pose real risks to any surviving hostages and that is something Israel would like to avoid at the present - get as may hostages out of harms way before finishing the job on Hamas.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Reports of extensive airstrikes overnight in southern Lebanon with IDF aircraft targeting Hezbollah targets after numerous Hezbollah attacks on Israel earlier yesterday.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces continues to raid numerous areas, arresting terrorism suspects.
——— FORECAST ————————-
More revelations of US backstabbing of Israel both on the bogus Hamas acceptance of a ceasefire ‘agreement’ as well as withholding munitions.
As noted above, Rafah operations are in a tactical pause as IAF softens targets for the next phase of the operation. It doesn’t appear that there will be any significant movement on any hostage release agreement in the near future, so continued ground operations may well begin at any time, once Israel has set the tactical situation into its favor.
Israel is facing portions of an estimated 8 Hamas ‘battalions’ and has committed 3 brigades for this phase of combat. How combat capable these battalions are is uncertain, but from the force Israel has projected into the operation, they may not be fully up to snuff. However, Israel has many brigades available in ready operational reserve.
I expect ground operations to resume within the next 24 hours in order to retain the initiative and further pressure Hamas into a hostage release agreement more favorable to israel, similar to the one earlier in the war. Unfortunately, I think the mental mind set of Hamas is to die a martyr’s death and kill the hostages before IAF forces can free them.
Hezbollah remains and I expect it to continue as such, on the sidelines, offering little in a way of attacking Israel to take pressure off Hamas. Israel has continued to increase military forces towards the north, so that any action by Hezbollah would be strongly countered and result in severe losses.
Misc of Note –
The encrypted-messaging service Signal is the application of choice for dissenters around the world. The app has been downloaded by more than 100 million users and boasts high-profile endorsements from NSA leaker Edward Snowden and serial entrepreneur Elon Musk. Signal has created the perception that its users, including political dissidents, can communicate with one another without fear of government interception or persecution.
https://christopherrufo.com/p/signals-katherine-maher-problem
OBSERVATION - It would not be surprising to me to see that Signal is compromised in some fashion (see link to article above). As advertised, Signal was to be the unbreakable comms means for all. But if backdoors have been installed, full reliance on its security features would be unwise. Monitoring to see just how bad the potential danger is.
Also note - it appears that Proton mail has been compromised.
Consider your comms wisely