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The Iranian shoe has dropped, now waiting on the Israeli shoe. Is this the start of a regional war that may blossom into a world war?

Very busy but now the fog of last night’s attack is clearing and we can see the fuller extent of the action.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Additional alert to be aware now that the Iranian strike against Israel is passed. This may encourage more aggressive, pro-hamas protests today.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of APR 8, 2024

US/UK/Jordanian and Saudi Arabian support given to Israel may spur an increase in Iranian supported terrorism globally. This threat will be expected to increase when Israel executes its promised counter strike.

Economy-

MSN reports that the greatest concern Americans have is an economic collapse.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

See Israel for US military intervention in Iran’s attacks on Israel.

POLITICAL FRONT –

July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL

***

Some outspoken support by political leaders for Israel following last nights attack by Iran.

Biden / Harris Watch –

The onset of the attack on Israel caused biden to be drug off his Delaware vacation back to the WH, where he allegedly met with military and political advisors, monitored the ongoing attack, contacted Netanyahu and finally went to bed. The WH had initially stated he would address the nation, then withdrew the announcement.

The big question is what the *&%$ is he doing of ‘vacation’ when his staff knew this attack was imminent.

Illegal Immigration –

Iowa has joined Texas in empowering state law enforcement to do the job the Biden Administration has refused to do: arrest and remove illegal aliens.
On Wednesday, amid the unfettered surge of illegal aliens into the U.S., Republican Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds signed into law SF 2340, which mirrors a Texas law currently being held up and challenged in court by the Biden Administration.

Iowa’s new law is necessary in order to protect the safety of the state’s residents from the dangers of Pres. Joe Biden’s open-border polices, Gov. Reynolds explained in a statement:

“The Biden Administration has failed to enforce our nation’s immigration laws, putting the protection and safety of Iowans at risk. Those who come into our country illegally have broken the law, yet Biden refuses to deport them.
“This bill gives Iowa law enforcement the power to do what he is unwilling to do: enforce immigration laws already on the books.”

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.

Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -

- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.

Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.

With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.

In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.

The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.

When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.

Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.

Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.

Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.

The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..

While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.

Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.

Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Increasing chances of showers/rain next week.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Action in Ukraine vastly overshadowed by events in Israel.

Ukrainian air defense shot down 10/10 Shahed drones over Kharkiv region overnight. More blackout also reported.

IAEA reports that all six reactor units of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant are now in cold shutdown for the first time since late 2022 after unit 4 reached this operational state early today,

Russian is developing an enveloping attack on Chasiv Yar, attempting to advance both north and south of the city.

Outlook —

Though largely pushed off the news and OSINT streams by Iran’s attack on Israel, evidence continues to indicate that Ukraine is increasingly under great stress in maintaining its defensive posture against Russia. Losses in Ukraine artillery and air defense capabilities are giving Russian openings it has not had in the past and is increasingly exploiting them.

ISRAEL –

Dates to remember -
Passover - April 22

Key overnight developments -

- Iran attacked Israel with some 331 drones, cruise and ballistic missiles

- Multiple nations defended Israel.

- Iran threatens Israel if it retaliates.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

***

Hamas praises the Iranian attack on Israel, sees it as a “natural and deserved response to the aggression” against the Iranian consulate in Damascus. “We call on all the forces of the nation to continue to support the resistance”

Israel has reopened their airspace.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant: “The event is not over”
The Israeli security cabinet authorized Prime Minister Netanyahu, Minister of defense Gallant and Minister Benny Gantz to decide on the Israeli response to the Iranian attack, two Israeli officials said. The Israeli war cabinet will convene tomorrow to discuss the issue

Israel calls for an emergency meeting of the UN security council over the Iranian attack

The US will not participate in any offensive operations against Iran, Biden made clear to Netanyahu during their phone call tonight, a senior administration official told CNN

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Israel continues it new tactic of quick strikes on Hamas elements as they attempt to regroup in areas of Gaza IDF forces have recently pulled out of. Overnight (and during the Iranian attack) IAF struck a number of Hamas concentrations in Gaza.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

The Israeli army says it is shelling the launch sites in southern Lebanon after some 25 rockets were fired at the Golan Heights in coordination with the Iranian missile attack. IAF also attacked a significant site for the production of Hezbollah’s weaponry in the area of Ain Beida deep inside Lebanon.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Overnight, Iran launched a significant drone/missile attack against Israel. Most were launched from Iran, but some also came from Iraq and Yemen, according to Israeli officials. Hezbollah fired a barrage of about a couple dozen rockets as well.

Various systems were synchronized so that the faster ballistic and cruise missiles would strike at about the same time as the slower drones reached Israel.

Of the 331 (341?) missiles and drones launched by Iran (and proxies) at Israel:

- 185 out of 185 Kamikaze Drones were shot down

- 103 out of 110 (120?) Ballistic Missiles were shot down.

- 36 out of 36 Cruise Missiles were shot down

- 7 Ballistic Missile impacts have been recorded on Israeli territory

The few missiles that got thru struck the Nevatim airbase in the Negev Desert, causing minor damage. Only one reported death, that of a bedouin boy in the Negev region. The overall focus of the attack also appears to have been the Negev region, where Israel has major military bases.

Deaths from falling debris were also reported in Jordan.

A multi-national quick response joined Israel in striking most of the drone and cruise missiles before they could reach US airspace.

US warships in the eastern Med and US fighter jets were involved ,intercepting 70+ drones & at least 3 ballistic missiles.

Jordanian jets shoot down dozens of Iranian drones flying across northern and central Jordan heading to Israel - two regional security sources to Reuters

British jets took down drones and cruise missiles as well.

Saudi Arabia reportedly joined in by shooting down Iranian drone/cruise missiles too

Debris from the shoot downs, as well as failed devices, are scattered all over Iran, Iraq, Jordan and Syria this morning.

Massive explosion took place in Amir Al-Momenin ballistic missile base of the IRGC Aerospace Force near Tehran. That base launched four MRBMs at Israel. Cause of the explosion believed to have been a missfired ballistic missile. The extent of damage to the base is not know at this time.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

A number of Houthi launched missiles were intercepted over the Red Sea.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Jordan and Lebanon have reopened their airspaces.

Iran’s IRGC said in its second statement that Tehran will give a “reciprocal and proportionate response” to any regional country that is used by Israel and the US for attacking Iran

——— FORECAST ————————-

Addition assessment from last night. Iran launched a couple billion dollars worth of drones and missiles on Israel and achieved very little in return due to the aggressive defense. US/UK/Jordanian/Saudi Arabia managed to take a pretty good chunk out of the drone/cruise missile threat, saving Israel a lot of work, but even without that help, the Iranian attack would have been seriously blunted by Israeli ADA and air force by itself.

Costs of Israel’s defense is listed in the 1.3 billion dollar range. Some scoff at the expense, but fail to realize that had those systems gotten through, the cost in lives and facilities, and infrastructure alone would be 10 times that cost.

Lets not understate the size and nature of that attack, because if it were against another opponent, that country would be a smoldering wreck this morning. This was not a great victory for Iran and now it has exposed itself to direct, retaliatory fire by Israel.

Iran’s attack also showed how dangerous a nuclear armed Iran could be.

Iran’s propaganda has switched back to a passive-aggressive posture again, in an effort to portray themselves as victims of Israeli aggression when the Israeli counter strike takes effect.

We now enter the waiting game for Israel’s counterstrike. Again, it is saving face time. Israel even prior to the attack warned Iran it would face severe consequences if it attacked Israel. Where a coalition of nations rose to defend Israel, they have stated that they will not engage in an attack on Iran - Israel will have to do that herself. And if Israel doesn’t, then it portrays weakness that will only encourage Iran and its proxies.

Israel has numerous options open to it. One likely highest on their wish list is taking out Iran’s nuclear program. While there are dozens of sites, there are only 4-5 key ones. A nuclear armed Iran is Israel’s worst nightmare and the greatest threat to its existence. iran’s attack opened wide the doors to taking that program out, or at least pushing that years down the road.

Another would be to damage its missile production capabilities and even storage. There are other military sites available too. Add to it the Iranian backed forces in Syria, Iraq and Houthi’s who also fired on Israel. Israel is well equipped with a triad of systems - land based ballistic and cruise missiles, submarine launched systems and fighter systems. Though unlikely to use them, Israel is generally understood to have nuclear weapons in that mix.

Israel has most likely already drawn up numerous strike options that in part would be executed depending on the outcome of the Iranian attack. The go - ahead for the counter strikes have been given, but the strike options are being given a final tweak based on last night and current intelligence on Iran’s defensive posture.

Iran may well have overplayed its hand in the matter and is now extremely vulnerable. They do not have the dense, well developed and experienced air defense that Israel possesses, nor the willing allies to assist in defending against an Israeli counter strike. Iran is a big country and its air defense assets are likely stretched to the max in an attempt to defend against counterstrikes. There is a remote chance that Russia airfare assets in Syria could attempt to intercept some of the counter strike force but they would not be as effective as demonstrated by the US/UK/Jordanian/SA response last night.

Longer term and more regional - Iran may well step up its harassment of vessels in the Straits of Hormuz region against anything remotely Israeli and US associated. Houthi actions have slowed way down in recent weeks, suggesting that the US/UK interdictions have had an effect, limiting its options on that front. What actions Iran can or is willing to take against Jordan and Saudi Arabia are not clear at this time. Jordan could face attacks by Iranian proxy militias in Syria, but that would likely not go well for those militias. In the past Iran has used the Houthis to attack Saudi Arabia, but to resume direct conflict means taking resources necessary to keep the Red Sea under attack and diverting them to that effort. Houthi may not have the resources necessary to essentially fight a two front war.

So we have more uncertainty in the region. Israel will attack, it only needs to see just what that attack will be composed of. Iran is far, far less capable defensively than Israel, so it will hurt.

Iran – HIGH Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Apr 2, 2024

Iran’s embassy in the UN in a statement:
“As far as we are concerned, the event is over.” If Israel makes another mistake (and responds) our response will be much harsher. This is a conflict between Iran and the unruly Israeli regime and the US should not interfere in it”

Misc of Note –

Still on the horizon is the potential for oil disruptions by Iran as punishment for any Israeli counter strike. Probably a good idea to make sure your vehicles are topped off - and keep them topped off for the near future.