If the Ukies just ran a simple raid on Belgorod and then immediately pulled back the Orcs would probably pull back a division or two to defend the critical city.
I hope they do this since the opportunity is sitting there. It’ll force the Orcs into reacting to an incursion and they’ll freak out and predictably overreact.
Correct.
Orcs would probably pull back a division or two to defend the critical city.
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or just follow policy and nuke the offending part of the UA