Replies

BJK to central_va: "In fact, as DiogenesLamp happily points out, had Confederates won they would have strong claims to states like Illinois, Indiana & Iowa whose exports shipped down the Mississippi to New Orleans.
Washington. DC, itself could become the Confederate capital, surrounded by Confederate states.
The rump US capital would once again flee north, to Philadelphia or New York.
So North America would split up into its several constituent parts and the United States would be no more:"

DiogenesLamp: "Not exactly my argument, but not that far off.
The South would have come to dominate the Western and border states, and those would have eventually come into it's political orbit, but none of this would have happened immediately.
It would have taken decades."

Important to note, in this long-running debate between central_va & others, that DiogenesLamp is on the "others" side, which posits a much more robust victorious Confederacy than central_va will admit.

Indeed, DiogenesLamp admits "it would have taken decades" but will not just yet admit the other necessary event: "Civil War II".
Had Confederates won the first Civil War there would have been a second to decide the fates of such other North American nations as "the Bread Basket" and "the Empty Quarter".

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BroJoe, you sure love fantasy games!

Is reality just too dull and boring for you?

Had the confederacy won, we might still have a functioning constitution!

Anyway, “what if” seems to be your “safe space,” but the rest of us have to deal with reality.
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I know we are getting into what if territory here, but I think the most likely outcome if the confederacy had been successful in their attempt at breaking away from the union would be another war between the US and the CS within 10-20 years. Here are the scenarios I think were most likely to happen;

1. Due to an increase in the Underground Railroad spiriting even more slaves north to freedom the CS petition the US to stop it. The US tells the CS to pound sand and the southerners feel their “honor” is besmirched and they declare war against the US.

2. The CS attempts to expand southward (Cuba or Central America), Britain says no way are we letting a slave country expand. They form an alliance with the US and war begins.

Just my two cents.

Had Confederates won the first Civil War there would have been a second to decide the fates of such other North American nations as "the Bread Basket" and "the Empty Quarter".

That is not necessarily true. If the United States accepted the idea that the populations of states have a right to become independent, "and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness...", then there would have been no need for a war. States could have joined the confederacy if/when they saw it in their best interest to do so.

More like, the Union would have had to adapt to the economic conditions caused by the South's embrace of lower tariff trade(not exactly free trade, but closer to it), and engage in less protectionism, less subsidies, and less tax and spend fiscal policy.

It might have caused Washington to have more discipline than it has now.