Posted on 06/25/2017 6:52:28 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
How long will President Trump survive? Nobody knows, but everyone’s guessing.
It’s a basic principle of psychology that the defenses we erect to defend our value always end up producing exactly what we are trying to avoid. In Trump’s case, the relentless insistence that he didn’t do it feeds the case that he did do it. I don’t know what the “it” will turn out to be, but I know Trump well enough to know that there are countless potential “its.”
I believe the end for Trump is much closer than most people imagine. Perhaps that’s wishful thinking, and I recognize I’m not particularly trustworthy. I always feared Trump could win the presidency, but I never truly believed he would. I do believe Trump will self-immolate. The more convinced Trump becomes that he will be caught, the more desperately he will deny what will turn out to be indisputably true. Is there anyone rational who doesn’t believe he has already obstructed justice several times over? In the end, I don’t believe Trump will be impeached, or found guilty of a crime. My gut tells me that when the fire gets hot enough, he will make a deal to save himself, resign the presidency, and declare victory. —Tony Schwartz, co-author of The Art of the Deal
After the Democrats went zero for four in special elections, the delusions and fantasies continue. Trump will be reelected in 2020, and Pence will probably follow him in 2024. The analogue for Trump is Andrew Jackson, not Richard Nixon. —Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House
The likeliest outcome is a very weakened presidency that goes a full term, but discredits much of the angry rhetoric and sentiment that got Trump elected — that the problems of average people are a consequence of government overreach. And that will be a continuing dilemma for Republican members of Congress, who will be caught between the unhappiness with Trump of the electorate at large and the enthusiasm of Republican voters. —Barney Frank, former congressman
I will say this: Trump will survive as long as congressional Republicans lack a conscience. They are too afraid of the right-wing base to speak up for decency, as Howard Baker, Barry Goldwater, and others did during Watergate. —Jill Abramson, senior lecturer, Harvard
It is perhaps naïve to underestimate Donald Trump’s capacity for self-inflicted wounds. But, even so, Trump is likely to weather his scandals because he has advantages that Richard Nixon could never have imagined: (1) He has an alternative-reality media infrastructure that will provide him air cover and attack his critics, regardless of the facts that emerge. (2) The Republican base remains solidly behind him, regardless of his erratic behavior and reckless rhetoric. Until that base cracks, GOP politicians will be loath to distance themselves from Trump. And, finally, (3) conservatives have allowed themselves to be corrupted by Trumpism, as they jettison long-held principles in the service of what has become a cult of personality on the right.
All of this could change, of course, but until Republicans show even a modest willingness to stand up to the president, it’s hard to see how they would be complicit in bringing him down. —Charlie Sykes, former talk-show host
The great conundrum of the Trump era is that it is almost impossible to imagine this level of public agitation, chaos, lawbreaking, and unpopularity sustaining itself for four years. Yet it is equally difficult to imagine any credible way it ends, at least before 2019. Clearly one of these premises must be wrong. I’ve struggled to figure out which one it is. My best guess is that Trump is more likely than not to leave office before January 2021. The number to watch is approval from self-identified Republicans. That number now stands at over 80 percent. It likely needs to fall to 50 percent or below before removal from office becomes credible. —Josh Marshall, editor and publisher, Talking Points Memo
Whether Trump survives — and I think he will — has nothing to do with the professional pundits and prognosticators who write for this magazine. The media has less credibility and influence today over politics than at any time in modern times. Instead, his survival is based on maintaining the support he has from the tens of millions of Americans who voted for him. And from what I see and hear — and I have spent more time with Trump voters than just about anyone in America — they’re behind him 100 percent.
These alienated Americans don’t support him because of his economic policies, though they do believe the American workforce has been used and abused by the international economic community. They don’t support him for his foreign policy, though they eagerly embrace his America First clarion call. They support Trump because of his persona, the in-your-face bravado that is so often condemned because it is so often misunderstood. His base, about 35 percent of the American electorate, has waited a lifetime for a president to stand up, speak out, and reorder the world order. It’s been chaotic and messy, but to the average Trump voter, it’s exactly what they wanted — and they are grateful. —Frank Luntz, Republican pollster
One thing I learned during my time in Obama’s White House: Never underestimate the cravenness of Mitch McConnell. If all you care about is cutting taxes for the rich and repealing Obamacare in secret, a Watergate-size distraction is a feature rather than a bug. As long as Trump’s base (and Fox News allies) punish Republicans who push for impeachment, I just don’t see McConnell and his party cutting the president loose. Until he becomes toxic in the brightest-red states and districts, they’ll be more than happy to use the chaos as cover while they ram through as much regressive policy as possible. —David Litt, former Obama speechwriter
Trump himself hasn’t proved predictions wrong — he is exactly what his critics expected — but the American people and the Republican Party did, by not standing up to Trump’s nationalist demagoguery in time. The people and other elements of government and civil society are rising to the challenge, but unless the GOP starts putting principles over party, America is headed for more chaos, more division, and a constitutional crisis. Trump cares only for his “brand,” so he’ll look for a way out before impeachment. —Garry Kasparov, chairman of the Human Rights Foundation
Because of the administration’s exhaustive attack on the media, accusing them of constantly reporting fake news, when Trump mysteriously abandons the presidency in August of 2019, no one will know why. All eyes will then turn to Woodward and Bernstein, the only trusted reporters left, for the answer. As they begin to share with us the brilliant Machiavellian coup d’état just staged by the deep state, we all wake up, it’s November 7, 2016, and this was all a horrible dream. Who are we kidding? Trump’s a two-term president. Enjoy! —Larry Wilmore, host of Black on the Air podcast
Today’s guess: I would say he is more likely to be felled by fast food than anything else but, on his current path, is no more than a one-termer. —Norm Eisen, chairman of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington
Assume that Trump manages to avoid stumbling into a major war. (Should that assumption prove false, then all bets are off.) But if our current situation persists — lesser wars that drag on indefinitely — then the current obsession with Trumpian scandals, real or alleged, is likely to intensify. Trump has shown himself to be astonishingly thin-skinned. He will grow weary of being pursued. Before his enemies close in for the kill, he will leave the field. —Andrew J. Bacevich, historian, Boston University
Although beset and besieged at every turn — and gaining an average of ten pounds a year — Trump indeed will make it through his first term. He’ll choose not to run again in 2020. Mike Pence will run and lose to New York senator Kirsten Gillibrand, who thus becomes the first female president. (I offer this prediction having been wrong about every bit of political prognosticating I’ve ever been foolish enough to make.) —Margaret Sullivan, media columnist, Washington Post
Which jackass wrote this?
"One thing I learned during my time in Obama’s White House: Never underestimate the cravenness of Mitch McConnell. If all you care about is cutting taxes for the rich and repealing Obamacare in secret, a Watergate-size distraction is a feature rather than a bug. As long as Trump’s base (and Fox News allies) punish Republicans who push for impeachment, I just don’t see McConnell and his party cutting the president loose. Until he becomes toxic in the brightest-red states and districts, they’ll be more than happy to use the chaos as cover while they ram through as much regressive policy as possible. —David Litt, former Obama speechwriter
Worked for Bobo, bug boy...
My husband was just now watching the MSM news. Gee..after listening to them I’m in shock Trump isn’t in prison!
1. He’s trying to destroy the gays. (What has he done to them specifically?)
2. He’s basically the catalyst for Alt-right nazis - this didn’t happen before Trump so it’s all his fault. And these people voted for Trump so it’s his fault.
3. Someone left a bag of bacon at a mosque so this is Trump’s fault. There was no intolerance like this before Trump according to them. My comment is for them to let me know when someone burns a Muslim alive or puts their Muzzie kids in a dough kneading maching.
4. And then there was Shameless Schumer. I couldn’t even listen to him.
Gee, replace Trump with either Clinton, and replace 'nationalist demagoguery' with 'self-serving policies' and 'GOP' with 'Dems', and I could agree with such an assessment - other than the fact that Hillary isn't president now.
"Although beset and besieged at every turn — and gaining an average of ten pounds a year — Trump indeed will make it through his first term. He’ll choose not to run again in 2020. Mike Pence will run and lose to New York senator Kirsten Gillibrand, who thus becomes the first female president. (I offer this prediction having been wrong about every bit of political prognosticating I’ve ever been foolish enough to make.)" —Margaret Sullivan, media columnist, Washington Post
Shrill hosebeast picks shrill hosebeast no-hoper. Quel dommage.
Shit Marge, Bezos is gonna make you take a buyout package next year, you'd think you might have come up with something more clever...
8 years of Trump, 8 of Pence, 8 of his VP, and at then least 4 of his VP’s VP should help a lot.
Especially if the latter folks hold FDR and company with the contempt they are due for casting aside governance by constitutional means as they did.
Eight years minimum. More likely 12, or even 16, if libs don’t give up their endless quest to destroy American democracy and freedom and transform this country to one of the the hardest of the hard Stalinist regimes on earth.
Depends on how long the Russians want him to serve.
Alex CRAP.
8 years.
Allow me to fix this crap. To wit:
He faces an alternative-reality media infrastructure that attacks him relentlessly and provides air time for the most outrageous lunatic conspiracy theories, regardless of any facts that emerge to validate his positions.
They were basically managing scandal with scandal there under Obama.
By this I mean that the administration actually seemed to help there to be a constant state of scandal whereby their own supporters would become entirely immune to any hint of Democrat wrong doing, as indeed many are, having been so thoroughly calloused over amid constant hullabaloo.
So no scandal was really too bad, relative to the last, to disabuse libs all at once and this let the ramp things up so that their abuses could increase.
Humans, you see, can rationalize a proverbial heating frying pan and get grilled alive where frogs, lacking the ability to excuse and accommodate, will sensibly jump out and survive.
Who is this yob?
It deserves repeating...8 years
Agreed. 8 years.
Trump will likely last 8 years, but the country will be more violent. If Mueller’s special counsel fails, if the Democrats fail to pick up the House and Senate in the 2018/2020/2022 elections, and if the Democrats lose in 2020 and 2024 to Trump and Pence, they will go insane.
“8 years..”
That would also be my guess.
WHEN WILL THESE PEOPLE GET OVER IT ALREADY!!!!!
I actually believe that there are a good number of Dems who are getting sick of this, and they will demonstrate their displeasure in 2018 and 2020 by just not showing up to vote.
“1. He’s trying to destroy the gays. (What has he done to them specifically?)”
I’ve also been trying to figure this out.
So America returns to monarchy huh? If you are trying to make people's heads explode let's also assume that with advances in medical and cybernetic technology, Trump is able to extend his lifespan and our redheaded royal cyborg is able to lead for thousands of years ! :).
8 big beautiful years plus all the years following before the Dems get their chance to try to destroy us again!
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