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NY Times: Maybe the Comey letter didn’t determine the outcome of the election
Hot Air ^ | May 8, 2017 | John Sexton

Posted on 05/08/2017 6:58:49 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

Did FBI Director James Comey’s letter to Congress announcing an ongoing investigation into Hillary Clinton’s email scandal cost her the election? That’s the argument that FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver has made and which Hillary Clinton herself has seemingly endorsed. But what if it’s not true? Today, Nate Cohn of the NY Times makes the case that it’s possible Clinton’s lead had largely evaporated before Comey sent the letter.

Cohn bases this, in part, on a poll of Florida which was completed the day before the letter was released (meaning no one polled knew about it) but not published until after the letter became news. This poll, which seemed an outlier at the time, showed Trump up 4 points, 46 to 42. And though there aren’t a lot of polls like this from the days immediately before the letter, there are a few which suggest Clinton was hitting bottom pre-letter:

The ABC/Washington Post tracking poll conducted over the same period as the Upshot/Siena poll of Florida, for instance, showed Mrs. Clinton’s lead at just two points, down from a double-digit lead after the third debate. That poll was also released after Mr. Comey’s letter.

Most important, the polls taken before the letter were as bad for Mrs. Clinton as those conducted after it. Again, there aren’t many of these polls, but taken at face value there’s a case that Mrs. Clinton had nearly or even completely bottomed out by the time the Comey letter was released. Even if she had not, the trend line heading into the Comey letter was bad enough that there’s no need to assume that the Comey letter was necessary for any additional erosion in her lead.

These polls are consistent with an alternative election narrative in which the Comey letter had no discernible effect on the outcome.....

(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...


TOPICS: Government; Politics
KEYWORDS: comey; hillary; hillarylost; trump
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1 posted on 05/08/2017 6:58:49 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Limited Liberal Logic: Comey issues a statement basically exonerating Hillary, then is blamed for her loss.


2 posted on 05/08/2017 7:06:06 PM PDT by SERKIT ("Blazing Saddles" explains it all.......)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

They just can’t figure out why the rotten old hag lost.


3 posted on 05/08/2017 7:06:26 PM PDT by bigbob (People say believe half of what you see son and none of what you hear - M. Gaye)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

IMHO, Hillary lost the minute she was anointed the democrat candidate and feel free to choose your own date of anointment.

I say this because Hillary was depending on the vote of women and too many women hate her.


4 posted on 05/08/2017 7:11:05 PM PDT by onyx (Donate Monthly ~ Join 300 Club!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

...how did Russia and Putin convince 25% of the rust belt to swing vote?


5 posted on 05/08/2017 7:20:11 PM PDT by combat_boots (God bless Israel and all who protect and defend her! And please, God, bless the USA again.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Duh! It s about time the left including the adoring media accepts the fact most people in this country are finished with the Clintons.


6 posted on 05/08/2017 7:20:31 PM PDT by hillarynot (I play in Peoria)
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To: hillarynot

..most people in this country are finished with the Clintons...
There’s always Roger.


7 posted on 05/08/2017 7:23:54 PM PDT by Sasparilla ( I'm Not tired of Winning)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; Jane Long; BlackFemaleArmyCaptain; Black Agnes; djstex; RoosterRedux; DoughtyOne; ..
The closest person running against Candidate Trump was Sanders...

He had the big rallies, they were not as big as Candidate Trump's rallies, but they were big...

Sanders was cheated out of a lot of his delegates because the DNC wanted “The Butcher of Benghazi”...no doubt about it and so did the media, talking heads and some radio show hosts...

The American People didn't want her, or Sanders or anyone else; my gage to who was going to win the election was the rallies, no matter what the media tried to do, we could see what Candidate Trump was saying to all of us, the American Voter...

And now the media, talking heads and radio show hosts are back at it as they were, trying to undo President Trump's base, it isn't going to happen, you seen the last rally in PA...WE ARE BEHIND PRESIDENT TRUMP 100% AND THERE ISN'T ANYTHING OR ANYONE THAT CAN TAKE THAT AWAY!!!

Stories after stories about depressing things about our economy, about what O is trying to do, the hearings that our FAKE CONGRESS is doing, it's all a ‘theater’ to get us to go against President Trump...I see it on here day after day after day...it isn't going to work...

‘The Benghazi Butcher’ didn't make a good candidate, nor would she make anything good, everything she touches turns to crap, she ISN'T the smartest woman in the world, she's the dumbest by far...

Le Pen lost last night in France, she came out and congratulated the winner and went on to a party and danced, did we see that with the ‘Butcher’ NO, from what we are told she swore, threw everything she got her hands on, and they had to sedate her to knock her out...her campaign manager had to come out...even the next day you could tell she was a hopeless POS always has been and always will be...

8 posted on 05/08/2017 7:34:46 PM PDT by HarleyLady27 ( "The Force Awakens!!!"...Trump and Pence: MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

It was the GOD factor that put PRESIDENT TRUMP into the WHITE HOUSE.

DANIEL 2:21
He (GOD) controls the course of world events; He removes kings and sets up other kings. He gives wisdom to the wise and knowledge to the scholars.


9 posted on 05/08/2017 7:50:50 PM PDT by stars & stripes forever (Blessed is the nation whose God is the Lord. Psalm 33:12)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

hmmm- NY Times now saying ‘perhaps not’ and lindsay graham saying ‘absolutely did’

NY Times more a friend to GOP than lindsay evidently?


10 posted on 05/08/2017 7:54:09 PM PDT by Bob434
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To: HarleyLady27

Yup!!


11 posted on 05/08/2017 7:58:14 PM PDT by I_be_tc
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Yes, Comey's letter kept Hillary from campaigning in Wisconsin.

(sarcasm?)

12 posted on 05/08/2017 8:23:47 PM PDT by airborne (I don't always scream at the TV but when I do it's hockey playoffs season!)
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To: HarleyLady27

You may have already heard this, but in fifteen short years, Ms. LaPen doubled the votes her father collected from the more nationalist French people.

I didn’t know that until FOXBiz reported it, but that explains to me why it was that she told her supporters that win or lose, they had won. France is turning, slow as the Queen Mary, but they are starting to look around and buy a clue. Their new Obama will either finish France, or turn France.


13 posted on 05/08/2017 8:54:22 PM PDT by RitaOK (Viva Christo Rey! Public Education/Academia are the farm team for more Marxists coming... infinitum.)
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To: onyx

LOL! Truely, women hated her. Hillary represented nothing women ever wanted to be. Name any quality and Hillary couldn’t pass a meat inspection among American women, outside of those two states whose names shall not be mentioned.

Even there, it was the truly unwashed, unshampooed and the unshaven who thought she rocked. The schrool girls, with heads full of lice on the outside, mush & bananas on the inside.


14 posted on 05/08/2017 9:04:12 PM PDT by RitaOK (Viva Christo Rey! Public Education/Academia are the farm team for more Marxists coming... infinitum.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The Left Institutions seem to be showing some discomfort at the thought that they are going to be saddled with Hillary Stassen.


15 posted on 05/09/2017 12:42:43 AM PDT by arthurus
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I think Obama keeping her at State was a way to keep enemies closer and throw her under the bus for his troop humiliation agenda in Ben Ghazi.


16 posted on 05/09/2017 1:28:10 AM PDT by lavaroise
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To: Bob434

The GOP rinos always had this weakness for Hillary, a sort of racism against Obama, like she is their girl. I think NYT-Obama want him to run again and keep Hillary out,


17 posted on 05/09/2017 1:31:15 AM PDT by lavaroise
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To: HarleyLady27
WE ARE BEHIND PRESIDENT TRUMP 100% AND THERE ISN'T ANYTHING OR ANYONE THAT CAN TAKE THAT AWAY!!!

I thank my lucky stars
To be living here today
Cause TRUMP still stands for freedom
And they can't take that away...

18 posted on 05/09/2017 2:20:32 AM PDT by poconopundit (FR: Self-Reliant Lovers of Liberty who can't stop the Chatter)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Maybe Comey didn’t elect Trump, but we know a lot of other reasons why the most lovable and qualified candidate in history lost:

People hating Hillary because she is so professional, so polished, such a wonderful lawyer, so brilliant, so good, so righteous, and so much better than us elected Trump.

The lack of energy among Hillary supporters and expectations of Hillary being the inevitable candidate elected Trump.

Robby Mook selecting the wrong travel stops for Hillary and spending heavily in the wrong states elected Trump.

Hillary’s campaign team failing to hone her message and get voters to the polls elected Trump.

Bill Clinton’s appearance of an inappropriate meeting with Attorney General Loretta Lynch elected Trump.

Blatant sexism elected Trump.

The ugly stew of racism elected Trump.

Hillary’s lack of likability and lack of trustworthiness elected Trump.

Self-hating women elected Trump.

Evangelical, Catholic, anti-marriage equality, and anti-choice social conservatives elected Trump.

Misogyny elected Trump.

Hatred of Hillary Clinton at the FBI (how could anyone hate a lovable woman like Hillary?) elected Trump.

The Russians elected Trump.

Wikileaks elected Trump.

FBI Director Comey elected Trump.

Sinister outside forces elected Trump.

Whitelash elected Trump.

Democrat policies that favor the rich elected Trump.

Failure to talk to working-class white voters elected Trump.

FBI investigation elected Trump.

Email scandal elected Trump.

Men elected Trump.

Lower-level FBI agents pressuring their Director (because that’s how professional relationships work) elected Trump.

Tim Kaine gave Hillary Virginia, but he also elected Trump.

White women elected Trump.

Racists elected Trump.

Sexists elected Trump.

Rural voters elected Trump.

The working class voting against their own interests elected Trump.

Fake news elected Trump.

Facebook elected Trump.

Supermarket tabloids elected Trump.

Celebrity (The Apprentice) elected Trump.

White male resentment elected Trump.

Over-shaming Trump supporters elected Trump.

Rejecting Bernie elected Trump.

Reagan democrats elected Trump.

Gary Johnson and Jill Stein voters elected Trump.

Backlash against political correctness elected Trump.

There are many terrible reasons for President Trump’s victory, but there are two things that were not a factor. First, Hillary was the perfect candidate; nothing she did harmed her candidacy in any way. Second, President Trump was the worst candidate imaginable; nothing he did helped his candidacy at all, except with racists, sexists, bigots, and the rest of the basket of deplorables.


19 posted on 05/09/2017 3:23:37 AM PDT by Pollster1 ("Governments derive their just powers from the consent of the governed")
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

It begins to look like the media has had enough of Clinton. Chipping away at her standing with the DemocRATS.


20 posted on 05/09/2017 3:54:16 AM PDT by Jimmy Valentine (DemocRATS - when they speak, they lie; when they are silent, they are stealing the American Dream)
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