Least you're thinking in the right direction. One thing no one considers in this argument? The state insurance commissions, who are charged with approving all plan changes.
So, let's just say that Congress does end zerocare, as you suggest, by the end of January 2017. By then, it is entirely too late to setup any new plans for 2017 (plan changes are usually reviewed/approved by about the middle of the year prior to them taking effect). Any plan changes would not occur until at least 2018, AFTER the insurance carriers have had the chance to run the #'s, put together corresponding plans, etc. and then get approval from the state insurance commissions.
Sounds feasible, right? Well, maybe, but not likely. Considering the fact that the changes mean COMPLETE changes across the board, that also means re-fitting the carriers themselves to meet the demands of the new system/plans and to be sure their internal infrastructures are ready, employees staffed, etc. If Congress ends zerocare by the end of January 2017, the best possible scenario is we see the changes take effect in 2019, but most likely not until 2020.
Yes, ANOTHER government program.