Posted on 11/05/2016 4:18:00 PM PDT by grey_whiskers
It’s because NV + NH + ME (2nd district - 1 EV) = 270 EVs, the minimum needed to win the election.
A couple of things. I see a 32k more Ds than Rs in Clark County according to this chart. Also, notice that this chart is for "Week 2" implying that there is a "Week 1" that is reported separately.
I’d say it favors Trump.
The analysis shows that 2% of Republicans are going for Clinton, but 5% of Dims are going for Trump. However, the big item is that Indies are going to Trump at 2:1.
Thus, total for Clinton thus far would be 170,651 and total for Trump would be 189,803.
“Where is Clark and why is it so dem?”
Clark Co = Las Vegas and surrounding population. Almost all the casinos are Unionized.
you know the rest....
Las Vegas is in Clark. Heavy SEIU presence due to all of the hospitality workers. The Clinton machine has its most strength there. The rest of Nevada is pretty conservative.
That makes sense. Without the Week 1 data, the analysis is incomplete.
Unfortunately, this doesn’t include yesterday, which was a monster day in Clark.
The final numbers can be found here - http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4567
Dems
Total EV (In-Person, Absentee, Mailling): 324,239
% of total: 42.11%
Reps
Total EV (In-Person, Absentee, Mailling): 276,611
% of total: 36.18%
Unaffiliated
Total EV (In-Person, Absentee, Mailing): 167,148
% of total: 36.18%
Dem lead over Rep in EV - 46,628
Still, this is not as bad as I thought or heard (some were saying 65K lead)
I have done polling for political campaigns and even helped run a House campaign several years back.
The analysis done here is solid as long as the CNN poll results are correct. If Trump truly holds on to more GOP voters than Hillary holds Dems, and if Trump is up with Independents by 28% (I’m skeptical of that), then all the Dems have done with their huge turnout is lower her margin of defeat.
On the other hand, if the CNN numbers are off, and Trump leads by only 2 or 3 points, then the Dem turnout is likely enough to win the state.
Bottom line, the notion that the Dems have an insurmountable lead in Nevada even though Trump is polling ahead there is a laughable conclusion. I suspect Nevada will be very tight on election night, but at this point, no one knows with any certainty which side will come out on top.
I was digging into these numbers earlier today and trying to find a breakout of Romney’s numbers among independents going into election day. The best I could find was him +7 but wasn’t clear if that was Clark county or the whole state.
In any case, as someone pointed out above, Trump is +27 with NV Independents in the latest CNN poll. I try not to read HotAir anymore but AnalPundit has it on good authority from some NV expert named Ralston (a leftist, to be sure) that he’s dead f’n certain Crooked has NV in the bag. Key takeaway:
“He predicted in 2010 that Harry Reid would hold onto his Senate seat when many conservatives thought the red wave that year would wipe Reid out and hand his seat to Sharron Angle. Ralston was right. He predicted in 2012 that Obama would defeat Romney in the state but that Republican Dean Heller would win a Senate seat in a nailbiter. Right again. He predicted in 2014 that the big red wave that was brewing would lead to wins for Republicans up and down the ballot in Nevada. Correct.”
So, I don’t know. I wouldn’t spend any more time there or CO if I were Trump. I think you’ve got to play to your base (white working class), and the midwest is where the greatest percentage of those people are. They also have more EV’s, so bagging one of them may be enough with OH-NC-FL-IA - even if NH doesn’t come through.
Using your updated numbers and the above percentages for Trump and Clinton, I have Trump with a 65K vote lead.
If trump is up 28% in independents, that is more than enough to close the gap.
Small transposition mistake. Reps are at 278,611 and not 276,611 as I said previously. So the Dem lead is 45,628.
he final numbers can be found here - http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4567
Dems
Total EV (In-Person, Absentee, Mailling): 324,239
% of total: 42.11%
Reps
Total EV (In-Person, Absentee, Mailling): 278,611
% of total: 36.18%
Unaffiliated
Total EV (In-Person, Absentee, Mailing): 167,148
% of total: 36.18%
Dem lead over Rep in EV - 45,628
Still, this is not as bad as I thought or heard (some were saying 65K lead)
With your updated numbers and my calculation correction, Trump's lead is 23K.
BTW, I’m also sticking with my home state of VA as Tuesday’s sleeper pick - emphasis on sleeper.
NOVA D’s almost let Warner & McAuliffe go down because polling lead people to believe their opponents had no shot. They were non-prez elections, so maybe the turnout will be more predictable. But, you’d hardly even know there’s an presidential race up here by the dearth of Hillary signs and bumper stickers - her support is that unenthusiastic.
You hit on another key point.
If the Dems build even bigger advantages over the weekend, then it gets much tougher for Trump to overcome.
If I had to guess looking just at the most current numbers, I would say Trump by one or two points. If the Dem ballot return lead grows even further before Tuesday, however, then they could very well take it.
I am one of those 16,841 “Others” in Washoe County, and I certainly did not vote for Hitlary.
I’m not so sure a casino employee would automatically be inclined to vote against a guy who used to build casinos.
Where is Clark and why is it so dem?
Clark county is Las Vegas, where half the population are refugees from California who are too dimwitted to correlate the reason they left California with their voting choices.
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