[sodpoodle]

I posted this on an earlier thread.

The professor’s record is based on only EIGHT elections.

1984 Reagan Obvious - a popular incumbent
1988 GHW Bush Not so obvious but was (a Navy Pilot hero)&
VP
1992 Bill C Good guess
1996 Bill C Incumbent & Newt did the heavy lifting
2000 GW no incumbent and Clinton disgraced the office
2004 GW Incumbent and a decent man
2008 Obama Obvious - no incumbent & slick marketing
2012 Obama Obvious - Incumbent

[poconopundit]

I hear what you're saying. And certain it appears that many of the contests were easy to pick.

However, many of them were toss ups.

By the numbers there's a one in 256 chance that a model will predict 8 elections in a row

The formula is 2⁸ = 256

Four elections in a row is not as hard at 2⁴ = 16

I wouldn't be surprised if FReepers would pick winners more readily than the public at large.