Posted on 08/17/2016 5:00:06 AM PDT by MichCapCon
Not long ago, many experts were projecting gas prices above $5 per gallon for the U.S. President Barack Obama said “with more research and incentives” there would soon be 1 million electric plug-in cars on the road. The top executive at General Motors claimed the company could sell 120,000 Chevy Volts in a year.
That was in 2011, when GM’s electric plug-in car was still in its infancy. Former Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm very publicly bought her own Chevy Volt after telling the media that electric car batteries represented the “beginning of new Michigan.”
That didn't happen, despite massive spending on taxpayer-funded production and subsidies for buyers. Today Chevrolet sells more $55,000-plus Corvette sports cars than Volts.
Annual sales of the $40,000 Volt peaked at 23,461 in 2012. Sales remain stagnant even though buyers get up to a $7,500 federal subsidy. Federal and state governments have given billions of dollars to promoters and corporations to build battery plants and other infrastructure for electric cars, leaving a line of bankrupt companies.
“It hasn’t lived up to the political expectations,” said Nicolas Loris, an economist with The Heritage Foundation. “It speaks to the government's inability to predict markets. The broader point is government can’t usher in new technologies with subsidies, targeted tax credits and those type of funding mechanisms. Time and time again politicians try to outsmart the market. The market will bear what the market bears.”
In his 2011 State of the Union address, the president predicted there would be 1 million electric plug-in cars on the road in the U.S. by 2015.
Then-General Motors CEO Dan Akerson followed by saying production of the Volt could reach 120,000 in 2012, double the company’s earlier estimate of 60,000.
According to media reports, Akerson’s projections presumed that high oil prices would persist and spur consumer demand for alternatives, including electric cars.
But something happened that Washington D.C. didn't see coming. Innovations in an existing oil extraction technique called hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking,” converted oil shortages to a worldwide glut that helped drive the price of gas below $2.00 per gallon in some places.
Just 9,808 Volts were sold during the first six months of 2016, putting the Volt on track toward annual sales below 20,000. In June, GM sold 1,937 Volts. By comparison, Chevrolet sold 49,662 Silverado SUVs and 2,483 Corvettes in the same month. Ford sold 70,937 F-Series pickups, America’s best-selling vehicle.
An early version of the Chevy Volt made its debut in Detroit on Sept. 16, 2008. The average U.S. gas price then was $3.87 per gallon. Just two months earlier, gasoline had topped $4.00 per gallon for the first time.
The Volt was on the market by December 2010. The price of gas declined during the Great Recession, but by May 2011 it was back up to $3.96 per gallon on average. It reached as high as $5 per gallon in some cities, and some oil experts speculated that $5 gas was coming to stay.
Except it didn't. With domestic oil production skyrocketing, prices plummeted, and U.S. gas prices have been below $3.00 per gallon since October 2014. As of July 25, 2016, gas was selling for $2.18 per gallon on average. In many places, a gallon can be had for less than $2.00.
Industry experts estimate there were 400,000 electric cars in the U.S. in 2015, far short of Obama's goal.
Henry Payne, the auto critic for The Detroit News, said the Volt has never come close to its predicted sales.
“Contrary to government predictions, battery-powered cars are a niche market (like muscle cars, for example) for green buyers,” Payne said in an email. “They make up just three percent of the market (and Prius sales are half of that). … With gas prices well below $3 a gallon, it only makes sense to green buyers to purchase a Chevy Volt — which is essentially a $35,000 version of the already fuel-efficient, $20,000 Chevy Cruze.”
Payne said the Volt is essential to GM if the company wants to meet federal electric vehicle and miles-per-gallon mandates.
“The Volt gains GM enormous federal credits which allows Chevy, for example, to continue to sell vehicles consumers want, like SUVs and Camaros,” Payne said. “Ultimately, California will require 10 percent of sales be zero-emission cars by 2020 — which the Volt will help GM make.”
In spite of cheap gas and stagnant sales, General Motors continues to promote its battery-powered car. Spokesman Fred Ligouri wrote in an email:
“We are very proud of the Chevrolet Volt. The Volt established an entirely new market segment for both Chevrolet and the industry when it was first introduced and we’re pleased to see that the segment has grown over the past six years."
"We continue to innovate with regard to the Chevrolet Volt, having recently introduced a second generation [2016/2017 model year] that’s sleeker, sportier and delivers greater range, greater efficiency and stronger acceleration," Ligouri said. "In fact, through June, sales of the Chevrolet Volt are up 57 percent year over year. And we continue to build on our history of electrification innovation as we prepare to introduce the industry’s first affordable, long-range electric car, the Chevrolet Bolt EV, later this year."
Even high gas prices will not sell this albatross. Americans have shown time and again that they are willing to spend whatever it takes for their entertainment and their vehicles (for better or for worse).
Chevy Volt = Solyndra with wheels
I met a tech-wonk ( who maybe a household name soon ) who basically said we are limited by chemistry. Obtaining 400kw/hr(/gm?) is the limit and anything else is hype for funding. we are @ 140 to 160ish now.
So do the Math, I did. That means IMHO a "Leaf" with 100 mile range on a good day has a theoretical max of 285 mile range w/ a 400kw/hr battery.
Now what all the hype might be about is can the get to those levels with consistency, reproducibility and reliability, that in itself might be a mini-revolution. Now can adding things like Graphene make them more reliable? Perhaps.
But the bottom line to make these things work, everything has to be "optimized" since you have so much less potential energy to start with vs the BTU's in a gallon of fuel. If I did my math correct even @ 400kw/hr that is 1/50 the energy density of Gasoline. Something to consider.
Emission standards and absolute desire for low Specific Fuel Consumption are a negative impediment for true Locomotive Style Hybrids with small high power to weight ratio engines for generators ( think Wankel and other "inventor" engines ), that literately would allow a power module that would fit under your back seat.
My 2 cents...
Let’s start a list of Obama’s economic failures:
1) Obamacare
2) Solyndra
3) Electric cars
That is not cankles body!
This week, here in Germany....they had to admit that a program that they passed over a year ago....with one-billion Euro attached (1.25 billion dollars)...which was parted out into bonus-packages designed to help you buy an electric car (you had to trade the old car in)....still has almost the billion Euro still in the account. Almost no one has taken the deal as is....trading in the old car to get the electric car.
I think you could actually come to the market with a $20,000 electric car, and people would still refuse to buy it because of the fear of running out of power or juice.
eCar = impractical toy.
I had a Leaf for two years. Excellent vehicle. Decent range, great performance, nice to have the option of running on various fuel options (coal, hydro, gasoline, wind, nuclear, solar).
I wonder how many Volts the feds bought since the beginning ?
I can’t seem to find any decent number
A couple of questions for you: Do you do any long distance driving in your Leaf? How long does it take to recharge your car?
Coal powered cars.
This article made me think of an experience I had yesterday driving home.
I was on a 4 lane street (25 MPH) and there was a car in the left lane going 10 MPH. As I pulled up next to him I realized the car was a Prius. We proceeded into first a 30 MPH zone, then 40 MPH and finally 50 MPH. The Prius stayed in the left lane and was consistently running 15 to 20 MPH below the speed limit. Then it dawned on me that the driver was “hyper miling”. The arrogant creep was attempting to maximize his mileage while driving in the left lane with a long line of cars stacked up behind him.
“nice to have the option of running on various fuel options (coal, hydro, gasoline, wind, nuclear, solar)”
Wait, what? Coal? Nuclear? Are you from Back to the Future (or in case of coal, Back to the Future III)?
This will happen some time when the government is not pretending to make it happen.
Actually that’s a VERY lightweight version of the current Hillary, who is at least 100 pounds heavier than that photo.
“had”?
So you weren’t so impressed that you still drive it?
They just need to do what I saw some of the early DIY electric car converters in Los Angeles did in the 80’s.
Tow a little generator behind the car and connect the output as a battery charger...:^)
IIRC small Honda Civics and Pontiac Fieros were popular for conversion.
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