Why these polls are different from the ones in 2008 and 2012

The Coach's Team ^ | 8/12/16 | Kevin "Coach" Collins

[T Ruth]

Thanks for your informative reply.

[T Ruth]

Thanks for your thoughtful reply. I agree with almost everything you say. And I do think Trump is likely win.

But I am also concerned that a large enormous part of the electorate is ignorant and emotional, and that the dishonest media can create such a fog of lies and distortion that the voters will simply vote according to what's "cool," in the sense of the subtext created by media personalities.

Jon Stewart has more influence than any ten people talking sense. So I guess we agree on your last point: despite all the cogent points you make, Hillary might still be elected, and then the country will deserve what it gets.

[UKrepublican]

My point was for Brexit they were miles wrong at every point, even hours after the polls closed. They were used to surmise a 90% chance of remain winning.

[sagar]

After the vote is counted, it is not speculation anymore, is it. I said the odds provide the best speculation. Can you name me a better speculation methodology than the betting odds where people are actually putting their money on the line?

[UKrepublican]

Point is it was equally as unreliable before the polls closed.

As for speculation methodology - One could cite opinion polls if you see them in that light.

Not denying they are a useful thing to look at - however my point was only that they can and have been hugely wrong, so I would not be despondent if the markets went against my preferred candidate.

[sagar]

“Point is it was equally as unreliable before the polls closed.”

Can you show me evidence that betting odds are “equally as unreliable”?

“As for speculation methodology - One could cite opinion polls if you see them in that light.”

As wise people say, opinions are like aholes. Everybody’s got them. Unless they put their money on the line, their opinion means nothing.

“Not denying they are a useful thing to look at - however my point was only that they can and have been hugely wrong, so I would not be despondent if the markets went against my preferred candidate.”

That is why it is called an upset. Things that are not expected to happen, using the most rational speculation methodology like betting odds, sometimes do happen. This is also the perfect opportunity to bet on Trump and get 4 times the return in 90 days.

[UKrepublican]

I said equally unreliable as in equally unreliable as how the betting markets were after the polls closed. It was insanely in wrong, a complete reversal of what the bookies were saying.

And yes I know what an upset was - my point was and remains, they can be hugely wrong, and so I won’t lose any sleep based on what the bookies are telling people, which I can only imagine right up to election day will be that HRC will be the next President.