Let’s see if DWS’s first mission on the HRC campaign is to write the NY Times and complain that this negativity has got to stop . . .
"However, in his polls-only forecast and in his polls-plus forecast, Clinton was still favored to come out on top. In the polls-only model, Clinton had a 53.7% chance of winning while in the polls-plus model, Silver gave Clinton a 58.2% chance of winning in November. But those numbers are a drastic drop off from where they recently were, hovering around 80%."
As they say here often, the trend it looking good. And with this email debacle... who knows...
Your title is incorrect—he is still forecasting Clinton to win in November, just saying that Trump would be more likely to win if the election were held today.
Why does it say Hillary 53.7/ Trump 46.2 when I click the link?
Why does it say Hillary 53.7/ Trump 46.2 when I click the link?
Now I am worried! This guy has a spotty history, but if it makes the Liberals so sad they don’t vote. GREAT!
Hillary drawing the firewall at Virginia is like WWII Germany drawing a line at the outskirts of Berlin. If they are they worried about Virginia, they are in trouble.
But we should anticipate a bounce back within a week when the post DNC convention polls start to roll in with most of these polls adding a little Secret Hillary Sauce.
This is not good considering how wrong he has been this election cycle :p
Though, let’s hope it is a return to form :)
Isn’t Silver a liberal?
So—Nate Silver is an imbecile until he comes out with data we like?
This is the official ‘signal’ to activate the unions, thugs, and malcontents for KAINE & UNABLE effort. It usually comes in September/October, but the BERNIE coup is speeding things up a bit.
No, I don’t think it’s even started. This Wiki leak was just the final nail in the “Crooked Hillary” coffin, showing everyone what Trump meant.
Much more to come.
The gray states could go either way but not enough to help Clinton.
I don’t care what any pollster or Nate silver thinks, says or polls! We were burned the last time with Mitt leading some of summer polling higher than Ovomit! All I can say is vote!!....go out vote and bring as many people as you can to the voting booth! If we lose this election our country is so freakin cooked!!
Nate Silver: ‘Calm down,’ Donald Trump won’t win the GOP nomination!”
The Democrats will be setting themselves on fire in the streets as this catastrophe that is Hillary unfolds.
The Green Party will have a decent showing this year, at least.
Oh, and more people will vote Republican than ever before.
Hillary is winning by +7%, I tell Democrats.
Trump is behind by -3%, I tell Republicans.
I just read another post that quoted this same source as having Trump “up” to forty point something. Did I misread it, or was that an old one vs. this new one?