Posted on 03/21/2016 10:38:11 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
I know the pundit world is tying itself up in knots with how the GOPe is driving toward a contested convention, and/or trying to change the rules to prevent a Trump nomination.....
I personally don't think the contested convention is even possible, I don't see Cruz or Kasich or both of them combined keeping Trump from 1237, but that's just me.. to me this whole exercise comes across as political theater... I completely expect Trump to handily top 1237, and I see very little opportunity or path for anyone or anything to stop that from happening, and I also see the actions of the GOPe and others as doing nothing more than solidifying and galvenizing Trump's support even further....
So, if their end game is to stop Trump from the nomination, why are they doing it?
Why is Cruz seen as more in bed everyday with the establishment? Appointing Bush's to his finance teams, publicly announcing meetings with GOP big donors, etc etc? Blaming Trump for the actions of paid agitators?
Why is Kasich even in the race?
Why are they spending millions on ads to bash Trump that have shown ineffective in the republican primaries???
The more I see of this, the more I believe this may be a long game strategy to damage Trump for the general election and to provide cover for other republicans to say He's not our guy and try to still win. The more I see of this, the more I am convinced the folks selling the stop Trump at the convention are just selling something they know to be a lie, for an alternate motive.
At this point I do not believe there intention is to stop Trump from the nomination at all, They see the same math I do, they see the same results of attacking Trump as everyone else.. They see the more Cruz is aligned with the establishment the bigger Trump's wins generally seem to be.... So why? oh why, do they keep doing it?
I believe it is not to lead to a contested convention, I do not believe it is even to stop the Trump nomination... I believe they are playing long game, and trying to damage Trump so badly that he is destroyed before he is even the nominee in the general.
Yes, yes, the folks who disagree with this would say, Why Bother with that? Trump loses the general in polling they say.... That's why he must be stopped.... Or they might say..No, we must keep Trump off the nomination to save the party, that's all there is to it...
Yet, that not the net result of this garbage... Trump support is as strong and broad as ever in the Republican primaries... The more the establishment attacks him the more his claims of being an outsider and that the establishment doesn't care for them are perceived as true... No, these actions are completely counter productive if the end game is to lower Trumps delegate count for the nomination.
However if taken from the long game of, we have to make sure Trump can't win the white house and protect "our brand" as much as possible knowing the nomination cannot be stopped... what do we do? We destroy the man... we attack the man... we know it won't stop him from the nomination, but we can make him as unappealing as possible to those who aren't voters in our primaries.... Try to destroy him before he is even the nominee, and provide cover for the rest of the ticket to say see... he's not us.
Now, this could be giving the power that be more credit than they deserve, but I really think this is the unstated goal of all this garbage. I don't think a contested convention is remotely the end game at this point, it just makes for the excuse they can use for doing it.
I see what you mean. I don’t agree, but I understand your view. Unless Trump starts getting about 8% higher results in the remaining primaries, and those delegates are bound, there will not be a majority winner. Unless Cruz gets 3 more majority wins, or Kasich 7, no votes in any round will count for anyone other than Trump. (Unless the delegates don’t read the rule changes and hose themselves again.) The idea of having the delegates bound is to answer your objection. Some of the states seem to have set up loopholes to get around that.
If Trump continues to win the same percentage of the delegates he has so far, he will not win on the first ballot. He needs 55% of the remaining delegates, and has received < 47% so far. The next few contests will be telling. Utah won’t tell us anything. Arizona could.
Thanks, Ingtar.
I am lousy on the math and the tricks, but I can compute a simple majority of “one man, one vote” in the popular vote, going into a convention. LOL! ( I mean that with humor.)
We now know that certain powers (delegates) get TWO votes, many of them under *duress*. AKA, as corruption.
Geez, not this garbage math again. Run the numbers again. This time compare how Trump has done against the other 2. That is what matters. Not against a field of 15! LOL. Then throw out the home states of Texas and Ohio. Then look at the remaining types of races left. Only 2 are Cruz-friendly closed caucus states. When you put that data into your calculations you will see that Trump should get about 67% of the remaining delegates. Game over.
Watch and Learn.
Trump is the guy who once promised to put Hillary in the White House. And who is practically the only person in America who could lose to Hillary in the general election.
Cruz is simply finally picking up the Republican Party endorsements now that the only other option is the guy who promised to put Hillary in the White House.
You mean "watch and laugh." I will. Heartily.
Unless, that is, your treacherous candidate's actions result in the nomination of Paul Ryan or some other GOPe loser. In which case, I will watch and loathe.
Reality....as it passes you by.
So I have watched and learned, as you suggested I should. I watched Trump win the nomination and I learned a lot about Ted Cruz. A lot.
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