Posted on 09/29/2015 6:30:48 AM PDT by RoosterRedux
If the race were held today: In the Presidential Republican primary, Donald Trump leads with 25 percent, while Carly Fiorina, Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio are all within the margin of error of each other.
•Donald Trump – 25 percent
•Marco Rubio – 14 percent
•Jeb Bush – 13 percent
•Carly Fiorina – 11 percent
•Ben Carson – 9 percent
•Ted Cruz – 6 percent
“We’re more than five months away from the primary, and the front runner today very well may not be the front runner in March 2016,” said Andrew Wiggins, Senior Director of Campaigns and Elections for the Florida Chamber of Commerce.
(Excerpt) Read more at saintpetersblog.com ...
Ping
4 of the 6 are Cheap Labor Express candidates.
If you want to keep your country, you MUST elect someone who WILL enforce the laws and secure the border.
I live in the Tampa Bay area. Over half of my friends will vote for Trump. (That’s 50% on my non-statistical poll)
Even his home state wants nothing to do with him.
I would think 13% is the cap for Jeb or Marco unless one drops out.
Maybe ¡Yeb! needs to campaign in Spanish full time.....
Ender?
I believe that the chances of the Democrat, whomever it might be- they could pick a candidate by drawing straws, being the next president are way more than 50%.
You are certainly right that the Bush/Rubio voters are pretty much the same. The question is whether all of the others would coalesce around Trump. Interesting that Carson is so low here, yet second everywhere else.
I think this is pretty much correct, though I don’t think it will be Bush. Jeb looks like a deer in the headlights pretty much all the time, and Trump has him tagged pretty good as a “low energy candidate”. That stuck.....because it really is true.
My guess is Rubio is more likely to be the candidate establishment, moderate, etc, Republicans look to.
Trump seems to hover around 25%, but he also has about 1/3 of Republicans that repeatedly say they’d never vote for him. He is the rare candidate that when polled can often be both the most favorite and least favorite candidate. Trump also tends to fare the least well against Hillary in a general election matchup.
I wish Cruz would catch on as it seems like he could be a consensus candidate, but it just doesn’t seem to be happening yet.
Trump touts these current polls because he is trying to create an air of inevitability, but I don’t think that is working - at least not yet.
The scenario you describe would be tantamount to the Republican Party committing suicide.
I think it already did that and conservatives are stumbling over the bones.
Highly unlikely. Trump is extremely polarizing, you can see it in poll after poll. Carson and Fiorina seem to be the "we want an outsider, but not Trump" candidates. I just don't see their support going to "the Donald". I hope it would go to Cruz, but much as I like and support him so far it doesn't seem like he is generating a real groundswell of broad support.
I looks to me like Rubio may end up being the more establishment candidate in the race. He may be perceived as a "consensus" candidate that can largely unify the party. And yes, I know - Gang of 8, Gang of 8, Gang of 8... Then again, Trump was against tough immigration reform in 2012 and claimed Romney was too TOUGH on illegal immigration. All Romney wanted was to enforce eVerify, punish businesses for hiring illegals and let the jobs for them dry up here so they have no reason to come. Here is Trump in 2012:
The Republican Party will continue to lose presidential elections if it comes across as mean-spirited and unwelcoming toward people of color, Donald Trump tells Newsmax. Romney’s solution of “self deportation” for illegal aliens made no sense and suggested that Republicans do not care about Hispanics in general, Trump says. “He had a crazy policy of self deportation which was maniacal,” Trump says.
And yet now he's flip flopped and put out an even harsher plan that is bound to be demagogued even more than what Romney was proposing.
A Democrat victory next year will end non-Democrat participation in the government. Immigration will be vastly increased immediately and there will be no "illegal" immigration as all immigrants of whatever provenance will be legalized and made citizens either by the fact of their entry or after a three line form is filled out in whatever language is convenient. The Democrats will then have a monopoly on election wins until the new class splits into its own parties. Then the dictatorship will simply swap around among Marxist, Gramcist, Guevarist, and Fabian parties until one of these new elected dictators simply does away with the inefficient process of election.
Agree Rubio is the target to beat now, but Trump had crushed him early. Once the Pauls, Huckabees, and the rest siphon out, people will have to choose more of the same (losers) or someone else. They'll choose someone else.
By the time Carson drops out Cruz will be long gone. Carson is doing much better than Cruz. Carson supporters will go to Trump.
The establishment is divided between Jeb, Rubio and Fiorina. If none of them drops out this will be a cakewalk for Trump. My guess is that Jeb will drop out after the NH primary so that Rubio has a shot at winning Florida.
The sad part is that you can’t even really pressure the GOP-E away from trying a blatant maneuver like this by telling them that you won’t vote for their candidate.
Because THEY DON’T CARE.
They don’t really want to win. The K-streeters are just fine with a Democrat in office, so long as they get to sidle up to the trough, too.
I’m beginning to think the GOPe will push out either Yeb or Marco Amnestio before the FL primary because if Trump wins FL the race is probably over.
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