U.S. will reach 400 Million Private Firearms by end of Obama Presidency

Gun Watch ^ | 1 September, 2015 | Dean Weingarten

[marktwain]

The National Instant Check System (NICS)  performs a check when people buy firearms from federally licensed dealers in the United States.  It is also used to perform background checks on people applying for firearm carry permits in those states where such permits are required or offered by law.  As there are now over 15 million carry permits in the United States, and firearm sales numbers are in the 10 to 20 million range per year, you can see that the number of NICS checks is not a perfect fit for the number of firearms sold.

One of the reasons for this is that one check can be used to purchase multiple firearms, and most people with carry permits are not required to have an instant check performed when they purchase a firearm.  They had it done when they obtained their permit.

We have a good measure of how many additional firearms are added to the U.S. private stock each year.  That number is compiled by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF).  The ATF tracks licensed firearm manufacture, import, and export numbers.  Those numbers are assembled each year.  ATF takes about 18 months to process the numbers and publish them.  We do not have data on how many used firearms are sold by dealers.  Presumably, they fall into the 40% of NICS checks that are done in excess of the new firearms added.

You can compare the ATF increase in the private firearms stock with the NICS checks done for that year.   The correlation is very high, with r= .9776.  1.0 would be a perfect fit.  At that correlation level, I have confidence in predicting the increase in private firearms from the NICS numbers.

Over the fifteen years that have been recorded, there have been 1.685 NICS checks for each additional firearm added to the private stock in the United States.  Multiplying the NICS check numbers (provided monthly by the FBI) by .5934 gives us a good approximation of the firearms added.

At the end of 2013, the private firearm stock in the United States is estimated at 363.3 million firearms.  16 million were added in 2013.   According the the FBI figures, the NICS checks for 2014 were 20.969 million.  That would be another 12.44 million firearms added in 2014.

In the first seven months of 2015, there were an additional 12.067 million NICS checks.  Another 7.16 million firearms were added.  Continuing that rate for the whole year would bring the total to 12.277 million added in 2015.

At the end of 2015, the stock should be at 388+ million firearms.  Given the current trend, another 12 million or more firearms will be added in 2016, bringing the total stock to 400 million+ firearms by the end of the Obama presidency.

At the end of 2008 and the beginning of the Obama presidency, there were about 308 million private firearms in the United States.   After eight years of President Obama in the highest executive position, I predict that there will be over 400 million.

If the trend for 2013 only is applied to 2014 and 2015  (based on the NICS numbers they are very similar), the 400 million mark will be reached by the end of May, 2016, and by the end of the year, there will be about 409 million private firearms in the United states.

That is a net gain of between 92 million and 101 million firearms in eight years, making President Obama the greatest firearm salesman of all time.

Source for NICS numbers: From fbi.gov(pdf)

©2015 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.  Link to Gun Watch

[Duckdog]

Good gun to start with. Only problem is that firearms can be addicting, you always want to try the another one.

[Marcella]

“Yep! Bought my first gun two weeks ago... Ruger 38 Special Revolver”

I have that weapon and bunches of hollow points for it. I also put a red laser light on it to be sure I hit the target.

A warning to bad guys, break into my house and the red light hits you and you are gone. My front door and the one window on the front of townhouse, are rigged with motion sensors and if they move, a loud alarm goes off so at first sight of someone setting off one of those alarms, the red light goes on bad guy(s).

Upstairs, on the front of my bedroom door there is a practice target with bullet holes in it in center mass of man and one low on the target man outline in the crotch area. Bad guy is dead if that door opens. Have a Colt 38 revolver on my bedside table. First shot is bird shot to hit bad guy, then hollow points after that. Will have to clean carpet of blood if bad guy enters. :o)

[nikos1121]

I see that a lot, I mean a lot. I have many friends that have bought several guns, almost like each time they’re in the gun shop they buy. Then comes the purchase of vault. My friend’s latest buy was a bazooka.

[SkyDancer]

Our family did our bit - added four new firearms.

[marktwain]

“Would those purchases be outside of the numbers above?”

The answer is in the article.

[QualityMan]

this is the same as in IA.

I acquired six firearms in the last two years...four of them are handguns.....only one NICS check, because of CCW.

that is...before the tragic boating accident.

[Prov1322]

[yefragetuwrabrumuy]

I think there is a great opportunity for some entrepreneur in making “family friendly” gun ranges. In cities, the best locations would be underground facilities in industrial parks, which would avoid a ton of zoning and NIMBY problems.

The ranges would be built beneath warehouses that are normally very expensive to operate, so they could split the expense. Most of the cost would be in having high quality air filtration, a/c and heating. Add-ons would be a packaged food and drink lounge that could double as a briefing room; a young children’s play area, and game room. Local gun stores could even have their catalogs in a kiosk there.

This would save a lot of travel time for police departments and others who need to do periodic pistol qualifications, who normally have to travel far to find a range.

[moovova]

Sorry. I missed that.

[Georgia Girl 2]

There is a reason Obama was voted number one gun salesman. :-)

[Ancesthntr]

I wouldn’t shoot .38 birdshot at anyone, and in your position I would change it.

1) You have a Crimson Trace or something similar, plus you undoubtedly practice. You ARE going to hit the center-of-mass target on the first shot.

2) Birdshot can kill or blind someone (though not the latter with a COM shot), but it is more likely to just wound them...and piss them off. Especially if the person is on some serious drugs, that won’t come close to stopping them, but will actually cause you more danger.

Re-evaluate. If you come to the same conclusion, fine. But at least consider the above facts first...we want you around for a long while.

[libstripper]

During the WWII battle of Guadalcanal one stretch of water became known as “Iron Bottom Sound” because of all the ships that were sunk there. In the future, due to all of the horrible TBS that occurred under Obola, whole lakes will be known as Gun Bottom Lake.

[Ancesthntr]

I agree, there are probably more.

These figures not only include very spotty numbers (or non-existent ones) from the 100 or so years before 1968, but they also don’t include:

1) War trophies from the Spanish-American War through Korea (and even some in Vietnam, though the Feds were already tightening up things by then);

2) Guns smuggled in throughout our history;

3) Guns manufactured by individuals; and

4) 80% receivers - even now, you can buy an AR-15 paperweight for about $40-$50, and if you have a jig (maybe $75-$100, sold by the same people that sell you the paperweight - and good pretty much forever) and a drill press (under $200 at Harbor Freight, or free by using a friend’s). I suspect that there are several hundred thousand of these out there, mostly bought during the last 7 years or so, and their production and sales are continuing to rise.

Yeah, there are more than 400 million - and if the Russians and we thought that taking control of shitholeistan, err, excuse me, Afghanistan, was tough, then let the statists consider what 400 million+ guns in the hands of pretty well educated First Worlders could do. My advice to them, same as that of the Founders, is to leave us alone.

[libstripper]

Indeed, before my TBA, the Gun of the Moth Club threatened to drive me out of my house.

[Ancesthntr]

“In the future, due to all of the horrible TBS that occurred under Obola, whole lakes will be known as Gun Bottom Lake.”

Yeah, well, there might be something else at the bottom of a lot of lakes...or in pig feces, or remote holes in the ground in the middle of nowhere. Just sayin’

[libstripper]

Before the TBA, my protection system was a 115 lb. Great Dane sleeping on the living room couch and an 85 lb. Pitador on the bed, backed up by a Beretta .40.

[Lazamataz]

A warning to bad guys, break into my house and the red light hits you and you are gone. My front door and the one window on the front of townhouse, are rigged with motion sensors and if they move, a loud alarm goes off so at first sight of someone setting off one of those alarms, the red light goes on bad guy(s). Upstairs, on the front of my bedroom door there is a practice target with bullet holes in it in center mass of man and one low on the target man outline in the crotch area. Bad guy is dead if that door opens. Have a Colt 38 revolver on my bedside table. First shot is bird shot to hit bad guy, then hollow points after that. Will have to clean carpet of blood if bad guy enters. :o)

You just laid out the map so I know how to effectively attack.

[libstripper]

Now, now I know none of us would do anything like that.

[N. Theknow]

Here is another map you might find interesting.

Gotta love Texas!

[Romans Nine]

I think that there are 400 million that they can’t deny. I suspect this is just like 99% of statistics that are 100% made up on the spot 93% of the time.

I don’t trust any information what so ever that comes in any way shape or form through any government agency. I don’t have time to imagine every angle that they “might” be trying to take when playing “fun with numbers”.

Here is an example;
A very close friend of mine was a missionary to Brazil for 35 years. When the CDC and the World Health Organization needed to show how much good there “work” was doing they would wait until the time of year they knew certain diseases where suppressed and take surveys to show they had “conquered” these diseases knowing full well that it was not the season that said diseases were prevalent. Case in point was Dengue fever. They specifically checked number of cases when mosquito’s were not in season.

We know our politicians lie to us everyday. Why would anyone believe agency’s headed by politicians have any credibility at all.

I trust nothing what so ever the government reports, nothing!! Anyone that does is naive.

Just like the statistics about vaccines on the .gov site that disappeared. I am not taking a side on that here just pointing out they did pull the information down because it was not going along with their narrative.