Fatal Firearm Accidents vs Private Gun Ownership 1965-2013

Gun Watch ^ | 27 August, 2015 | Dean Weingarten

[marktwain]

The red line is the number of private firearms in the United States, in units of 100,000.  At the end of 2013, the estimate was 363.3 million.

The green line is the number of fatal firearm accidents, or unintentional firearm fatalities, in the United States.  The number in 2013 was the lowest recorded, 505.

The number of fatal firearm accidents, or unintentional firearm fatalities, have been falling for more than 50 years.  At the same time, the number of firearms in the United States has been steadily rising.  The cause of fatal firearm accidents is not correlated to the number of firearms in society. 

The absolute numbers are important, but the rate of unintended firearm fatalities per 100,000 population is a better measure of safety.

Chart courtesy of extranosalley.com

Since the per capita chart was produced, we have a few more years of data.   Here is a blow up of the last 15 years, including the tail end of the above chart.

A large number of factors have been proposed for the falling fatal firearm accident rates.

Here are a few of the more prominent ones:

Training in basic firearms safety.  The NRA has been pushing firearms safety training for decades.

Safer firearms.  Modern firearms, which make up a majority of the private firearms in the United States (half the stock has been manufactured since 1984, three quarters since 1965), have more safety features.  It is almost impossible for pistols manufactured after 1973 to fire when dropped, due to liability concerns.  Safety triggers have become common on rifles in the last decade.

Blaze orange hunting gear.  A significant drop in hunting fatalities occurred after many states required hunters to wear blaze orange during crowded hunting seasons, such as deer hunting in Wisconsin.

Requirements for hunter safety training to obtain a hunting license.  Most states now require a hunter safety course for new hunters.

Better emergency medical response.  People who might have died from a gunshot wound are saved by better emergency medical care.

Rise of concealed carry permits.  Most concealed carry permits require some safety training.

Rise of private tactical training academies, which teach gun fighting as a martial art, such as Gunsite in Arizona, Rogers Shooting School, InSights Training Center, Front Sight Firearms Training Institute, and a host of other private, for profit, firearm training schools.

The rise of the gun culture magazines from the 1960's on, such as Guns and Ammo, Shooting Times, Garden and Gun, Special Weapons, Handguns, Guns, and numerous others.  While the print versions are being supplanted by online versions and blogs, all preach gun safety, and have had significant impact on the gun culture for the last 50 years.

Substitution of pistols for home defense from shotguns and rifles.  A wound from a pistol is less likely to be fatal than from a high powered rifle or a shotgun at close range.

Heightened awareness of gun safety due to the push for more legal restrictions on guns by the media and elite politicians.  As the population has been inundated with "guns are bad" and "guns are dangerous" messages, one consequence may be a heightened concern for following the safety rules.

All of these factors probably contributed, but the total drop is astonishing, a 95% reduction in the rate of fatal firearm accidents since 1904.  This occurred as the per capital number of firearms has increased from .35 in 1945, to 1.14 in 2013, a tripling of the number of guns per person in the United States.  The per capita numbers are not available before 1945.

Here are the data sources:

Number of Private firearms in the United States, 1945 to 2012 from a previous article at Gun Watch.  The 2013 number was calculated using the same methodology and ATF sources as in the article.

Unintentional firearm fatalities, 1965-1987, from Kleck, Point Blank Page 306 Table 7.1

1981-2000 unintentional firearm fatalities from An Analysis of Firearm-Related Accidents in the United States(pdf;  rates from Kleck or calculated using Census figures.

1999-2013 unintentional firearm fatalities and per capita rates available in WISQARS.

1904-2008 U.S. Accidental Firearm Death Rate chart courtesy of Extranosalley.com.

©2015 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice is included.

Link to Gun Watch

[marktwain]

Those pushing for severe restrictions on firearms ownership claim that heavy regulation of automobiles reduced automobile fatalities. They claim that there is no comparable regulation of firearms. The facts show that personal regulation of firearms has reduced firearm fatalities far more than government regulation of automobiles, in the same period.

[Tupelo]

Very interesting statistics. Very.
Thanks

[grobdriver]

This is excellent.
Thanks for posting it.

[piroque]

Thanks for the charts,,,bump

[Manly Warrior]

The real value lesson here is that the data shows something like a 95% reduction in firearm accidents since 1900- almost reaching the statistically improbable rate of perfection ( show me any other accident mechanism that has similar results!).

Other activities/objects need to look at firearms safety as a test case of how to reduce risk.

[jsanders2001]

Now compare the shootings to terrorist murders to prove once and for all Obummer was speaking out of his obunghole the other day...

[jdege]

“A wound from a pistol is less likely to be fatal than from a high powered rifle or a shotgun at close range.”

True, but perhaps more importantly, a handgun kept around the house for self-defense is far less likely to be involved in an accidental discharge. The shotgun in the closet is more likely to be knocked over or dropped and more likely to discharge if it is.

[marktwain]

Another possible factor, certainly. A pistol is more easily secured than a long gun.

[Fry]

This is excellent information and thanks for sharing it in this format. Safer firearms, fewer hunting accidents, the nature of the firearms in the house and an increased emphasis on safety are all clearly the main reasons for this amazing drop. However, for some reason I feel compelled to throw this out there as another possible reason for the drop in "accidental" deaths.

They weren't all accidents in the first place.

Maybe with the improvements in crime scene methods and forensics a lot of what used to be classified as accidents are now suicides or even homicides. eg The family (or sympathetic police) didn't want to say it was a suicide so instead "the gun went off when he was cleaning it..." or sometimes people do get away with murder.

Of course, I have absolutely NO data to back that up but just think it is an interesting thing to throw out there.

[marktwain]

It is a possibility. We cannot know what is not known.

It is a conceit of the current age that we can know everything. There is far more unknown than known.

That conceit is one of the primary fuels of the “climate change” scam.

People have watched countless movies and TV shows where the “scientist” appears to know all and to be able to calculate probabilities at the drop of a hat, when in fact, such knowledge does not exist, and is, as a practicality, impossible to acquire.

[NotQuiteCricket]

I do not believe the number of gun owners has increased as much as the numbers of guns owned. Firearms are like potato chips, you cant stop at just one.

[goodnesswins]

Bfl

[aimhigh]

Many accidental shootings still result from holstering a handgun while failing to remove the trigger finger.

[jdege]

And until recently, pistols were more likely to be drop safe.

[jdege]

Many accidental shootings still result from holstering a handgun while failing to remove the trigger finger.

Given the inconvenience and expense of reattaching a finger, I generally try to avoid removing them...

[Torcert]

They claim that there is no comparable regulation of firearms.

That is SOP for the gun grabbers - pretend no laws of regulation and anything new is just a 1st step.

[Oatka]

Great info. Thanks.

I’d love to see some politician do a Ross Perot and have a TV discussion on gun control and use these as props.

[marktwain]

You are correct.

Looking at the evidence, I think the percentage of gun owners stayed fairly steady until about 20 years ago. But in 1994, with the Clinton push on stricter gun laws, many people that did not have a gun, decided that the had better get one while they could. At the same time, concealed carry was starting to really take off, motivating even more to get a gun. In the last decade, the number of women and minorities obtaining guns has started to take off.

I think the percentage of gun owners today is at an all time high, likely about 40% of the population. Many will not admit their ownership to pollsters. If you obtained a gun for fear that it might be taken, would you admit ownership to a stranger?

[AllAmericanGirl44]

bkmk