I don’t disagree, all I’m saying is if they had gotten the carriers, it would have taken much longer to ultimately defeat them.
That being said, I don’t see any way Japan could have invaded Hawaii. But they certainly would have taken Australia if they got to the carriers. Then you’d be talking ultimately fighting land battles in Oz.
The forces in Hawaii at the time could not have stopped an invasion the size of the one sent 6 months later to midway. 4 battalions of Marines and one infantry division was not going to stop a Nip invasion.