Posted on 07/25/2015 11:12:55 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Thanks to Barack Obama, it is only a matter of time before Israel feels forced to conduct a massive military strike against Iran’s nuclear program. When that happens, Iran will strike back, and hundreds if not thousands of missiles will rain down on Israel. This exchange will likely spark a major regional war in the Middle East, and that could end up plunging the entire planet into chaos. If Barack Obama was attempting to prevent such a scenario from playing out, he failed miserably. Personally, I think that the deal that was just made with Iran is absolutely horrible. Perhaps you disagree. Perhaps you believe that it is the greatest piece of diplomacy of all time. But it doesn’t really matter what any of us think. If this deal was going to work, it had to be strong enough to convince Israel that Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons has been completely stopped. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has sworn that he will never, ever let Iran get a nuclear weapon, and he has pledged to use military force if necessary. So what Barack Obama needed was a deal that would calm Israeli nerves while satisfying the Iranians at the same time. Such a deal may have theoretically been impossible, but that is what it was going to take to prevent war. Instead, Obama has made a deal which has utterly horrified the Israeli government. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu even called it “a license to kill“. So now the odds that war will happen have gone way up, but Barack Obama is too busy congratulating himself to notice.
And it isn’t just the Israeli government that has responded very negatively to this deal.
One recent survey found that a staggering 74 percent of Israelis do not believe that this deal will prevent the Iranians from developing a nuclear weapon.
A different survey discovered that 47 percent of Israelis would now support a military strike against Iran and only 35 percent of Israelis are currently against one.
Of course the Israeli government would very much prefer not to have to bomb Iran. Before resorting to military action, the Israeli government will certainly try to encourage the U.S. Congress to derail this deal. And we should probably expect to see more covert action against Iran’s nuclear program.
But in the end, those methods will almost certainly not be enough. At that point, the Israeli government will have a decision to make, and I think that the following exchange between Netanyahu and Steve Forbes gives us some insight into what Israeli officials are thinking right now…
*****
BENJAMIN NETANYAHU: I think if the deal goes through we’re in danger of war, and it might be the worst kind of war we can imagine. Because this deal will open the way for Iran not to get a bomb but many bombs. Within a decade it will be free to enrich uranium on an unlimited basis. And it will be able to make the fissile core for dozens of bombs–indeed, hundreds of bombs–which it can then put on the hundreds of ICBMs it already has.
Under this deal Iran is going to get $100 billion to $300 billion, which it will be able to use to fund its terrorism and its aggression in the region–its aim being to destroy Israel. Given Iran’s history of aggression, I’d say that this double bonanza of a guaranteed pathway to a nuclear arsenal and a jackpot of money to continue its aggression actually makes the danger of war, even nuclear war, a lot greater.
SF: You make a very important point. Even if Iran sticks to the deal, which is highly problematical, in a decade it will be a major global nuclear power, and it will have ballistic missiles.
BN: Iran is producing them, and guess what? Within a few years they will be able to reach the Eastern seaboard of the United States. And then every point in the United States. But this deal will also enable Iran to tip those missiles with nuclear weapons, with atomic bombs. And I think it’s a huge mistake to allow the foremost sponsor of terrorism in the world, Iran, to have nuclear weapons, as well as the capacity to give such weapons to its terrorist surrogates. This is a big, big mistake. Not only endangering Israel and the entire Middle East but the entire world, specifically the United States. The mullahs, the dictators in Tehran, they call us the little Satan; they call America the big Satan. You are their ultimate target, and you should not give such a terrorist regime the weapons of mass destruction. Because I think the greatest danger facing our world is the marriage of militant Islam with nuclear weapons. Here you have a militant Islamic state, Iran, arming itself with nuclear weapons and receiving a huge cash bonanza in the bargain. That’s a mistake.
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Let there be no misunderstanding – as long as Benjamin Netanyahu is in power the Israeli government will never, ever allow Iran to build nuclear weapons.
This deal that Barack Obama just made with Iran guarantees the Iranians a path to a nuclear weapon, but the Obama administration is apparently hoping that regime change will happen before that time if they are able to kick the can down the road far enough.
But the big mistake that almost everyone in the western world is making when analyzing this deal is that they are assuming that the Iranians will actually keep their promises.
Just like the U.S. government, the Iranians have a very long track record of blatantly lying. And they were caught lying even in the midst of these recent negotiations. The National Council of Resistance of Iran produced evidence that the Iranians were enriching uranium intended for nuclear weapons at a site known as “Lavizan-3” just outside of Tehran. But even after this information came out, the Iranians and the Obama administration just continued with their negotiations as if this facility did not exist.
This is how utterly incompetent the Obama administration is. The Iranians were hiding things and blatantly lying to us before the negotiations were even completed. And the truth is that it is possible that Iran might already have developed nuclear weapons.
Let us hope that this is not the case, but if reports about Lavizan-3 are accurate, the Iranian nuclear program may be far more advanced than any of us have been led to believe.
Sadly, most people in the western world end up believing what they want to believe about Iran instead of what the facts on the ground actually tell us.
Not too long from now, I believe that we will see some sort of “trigger event” which will motivate the Israeli government to finally conduct a massive military strike against the Iranian nuclear program. Israel has a history of conducting these kinds of assaults, and the Israeli military has been preparing for just such an attack for a very long time. The following comes from a recent article by Joel C. Rosenberg…
Israel has used surprise military force twice to neutralize foreign nuclear programs. In 1981, the Israeli Air Force attacked and destroyed Iraq’s nuclear facilities. Then in 2007, the Israelis attacked and destroyed a Syrian nuclear facility being built with the help of the North Koreans. An attack on Iran’s facilities would be far more complex, and the possible retaliatory blowback could be horrendous. But yet, the Israelis certainly have the capability to do what they need to do, and they’ve been preparing for years for that moment. Given Israel’s historic track record, it is possible Israeli leaders will come to the point of feeling they have no choice but to launch attacks on Iran.
And just because Iran has made a “deal” with us, the American people should not assume that we have now become “friends” with the Iranian government.
In fact, the president of Iran recently led a march through the streets of Tehran during which the crowds were chanting “death to America”…
“Even over the weekend, as Iran continued to receive more and more concessions at the negotiating table, Iranian President Rouhani led a march of hatred in the streets of Tehran in which the masses cried, ‘Death to America! Death to Israel!‘” Netanyahu said, describing Iran’s recent “Al Quds (Jerusalem) Day” in an address to the Knesset Monday.
What a horrible thing to want. Even though I am very pro-Israel, I would never wish death to Iran. The Iranian people work hard, they take care of their families, and most of them want peace.
Unfortunately, Iran is run by a cadre of radical Islamic nutjobs that are obsessed with wiping the nation of Israel off the face of the planet.
For a long time, Israel and Iran have been on a collision course, and now time is running out.
War is coming to the Middle East, and it is going to be absolutely horrifying.
^ all of the above. And yes BIG money.
**************************** NEWSFLASH 4 DEMS ****************************
Iranian Spiritual Leader Ayatollah Khamenei recently sent President Obama a secret letter in his own handwriting to let him know he was still in the game.
Obama opened the letter which appeared to contain a single line of coded message, 370HSSV-0773H. Obama was baffled, so he e-mailed it to John Kerry. Kerry and The State Department aides had no clue either, so they sent it to the FBI. No one could solve it at the FBI, so it went to the CIA, then to the NSA. With no clue as to its meaning, the CIA finally sent a secure cable and asked MOSSAD for help.
Within a few minutes MOSSAD cabled back with this reply, “Tell the President he’s holding the message upside down.”
I think Israel missed their opportunity several years ago. They trusted Obama, which was a grave mistake.
Saying that, you could be right. It's just reviewing all the options I don't see how Israel degrades Iran's nuclear program under the current circumstances. It's a great distance, they'd need some sustained strikes over repeated days unless they use low yield nukes, the world condemnation would put pressure on them to curtail any robust multi day operation, there is the problem of what airspace to fly over, etc, etc, etc.
If you or someone could wargame me a plausible scenario I'd love to hear it.
I wish the Israeli Air Force smooth air and the blessing of God. I also hope they use nuclear weapons on ground blasts that will spread radioactivity all over Iran killing as many of the scientists, mullahs, revolutionary thugs, and the cowards who have failed to stand up to them over the years since The Cricket pulled the rug out from under the Shah.
Don’t forget the dead civilians in Iran and elsewhere. Radioactivity knows no borders.
Okay, then, big money from who? The Saudis don’t want it, Syria can’t afford it, Egypt’s afraid of the Pali’s getting loose. Where does the money come from? George Soros?
Look for a “September Surprise”?
Many things are coming together for bad things to happen in Sept.-Oct.
If Iran starts to attack Israeli cities, Iranian cities will also be targeted...with far more firepower, accuracy and effect.
Hell, if Israel REALLY wanted to, they could protect the movement of an artillery division up to the outskirts of Tehran.
And supply it for months.
One recent survey found that a staggering 100 percent of the WH do not believe that this deal will prevent the Iranians from developing a nuclear weapon.
That may be true but they weren’t going to let people know that. Fake survey.
The distance factor is greatly reduced if Saudi Arabia provides a re-fueling/re-arming base.
I cannot imagine a US field commander issuing orders to intercept Israeli planes.
I cannot imagine a carrier commander following such orders.
I cannot imagine American Christian pilots firing on Israeli aircraft.
Deal or No Deal, you are in danger Israel. Go for it, and sooner rather than later.
I think they’d probably go in by overflying Syria. I don’t know what state Assad’s air defences are in these days, but they must have been severely affected by the civil war there. ISIS aren’t capable of opposing Israeli aircraft, neither are the Kurds, who in any case generally have favourable relations with Israel. I guess it would have to be a multi-day campaign because they’d have to degrade Iran’s air defence network first before they could go in and bomb the reactors, so nukes would be the most effective, if politically costly decision. Sunni Arabs would be secretly please by Israel bombing Iran and if not actually supporting them, would be acquiescent to their campaign.
Roger that
We have maybe 45 - 60 days to fine-tune any preps one may have....
I think it is far too late for anything but a"massive" strike, and by that I mean a full nuclear attack on Iran, and that is unlikely unless Iran nukes Israel first.
“War is coming to the Middle East, and it is going to be absolutely horrifying.”
Obama’s legacy ... for which he’ll be remembered for centuries.
Fun song. As a bonus, it makes lieberals’ heads explode.
Oh I agree the Sunni’s would be happy, but they’d have to pretend not to be which severely limits their inaction. I think your right about Syria, I also think they could get a day or 2’s worth of over flight of Jordan or Saudi Arabia as those 2 countries would just claim they couldn’t stop them. What they wouldn’t get is basing rights unless the entire Sunni world cooperated to give them cover - and I just find that unlikely.
Again though, the problem comes back to this having to be a multi day operation. I really doubt Israel would use nukes, tactically they should as it would get the job done fast - but strategically they’d be crushed by public opinion around the world and everyone knows it.
The problem is, much as most of us view Netanyahu as a tough guy, his track record to Israeli’s is almost the opposite in some cases. He did win re election, but took quite a hit in the polls by ending the Gaza operation without destroying Hamas. Bibi is actually quite cautious, much more so than the perception we have of him.
I think if Israel is about to attack Iran you’d see some unusual diplomatic and/or military activity from them. “Clearing the deck” as they say. They might suddenly do a deal with the Palestinians, or they may do the opposite and strike the Pali’s and Hezbollah in quick succession to knock them out of any fray that follows a strike in Iran.
The most sensible attacks for Israel to make are unconventional and indirect. For example, Iran has a large number of dams and reservoirs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_dams_and_reservoirs_in_Iran
Properly attacked, the destruction of some of these would cripple Iran in many ways, both power and water. Popping a dam upriver can knock out several dams downriver as well.
The Israelis could easily make a robotic minisub, dropped in a dam’s reservoir late at night, which would quietly guide itself to the dam, at just the right depth, then use what amounts to a very large shaped charge to blow a hole in the dam. Water pressure alone would do the rest.
With Israel on the edge it looks like time for an Israel and Iran agreement.
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