Posted on 02/24/2015 9:21:38 AM PST by alexmark1917
Greek 4 month extension does nothing for the people of Greece. Sub-prime auto loans all time high and delinquencies are rising. Existing home sales implode while home price fall. Baltic Dry Index falls and ship builders are filing for bankruptcy. US blimp in Maryland used to watch the people. Ukraine bans Russian media and sets up their own propaganda media. Poroshenko wants Crimea back as they pull more weapons to the front line. US and the coalition forces getting ready for a major offensive in the middle east. DHS budget in trouble, using fear and a false flag event to get their budget approved.
Why The Price Of Oil Is More Likely To Fall To 20 Rather Than Rise To 80
This is just the beginning of the oil crisis. Over the past couple of weeks, the price of U.S. oil has rallied back above 50 dollars a barrel. In fact, as I write this, it is sitting at $52.93. But this rally will not last. In fact, analysts at the big banks are warning that we could soon see U.S. oil hit the $20 mark. The reason for this is that the production of oil globally is still way above the current level of demand. Things have gotten so bad thatmillions of barrels of oil are being stored at sea as companies wait for the price of oil to go back up. But the price is not going to go back up any time soon. Even though rigs are being shut down in the United States at the fastest pace since the last financial crisis, oil production continues to go up. In fact, last week more oil was produced in the U.S. than at any time since the 1970s. This is really bad news for the economy, because the price of oil is already at a catastrophically low level for the global financial system. If the price of oil stays at this level for the rest of the year, we are going to see a whole bunch of energy companies fail, billions of dollars of debt issued by energy companies could go bad, and trillions of dollars of derivatives related to the energy industry could implode. In other words, this is a recipe for a financial meltdown, and the longer the price of oil stays at this level (or lower), the more damage it is going to do.
The way things stand, there is simply just way too much oil sitting out there. And anyone that has taken Economics 101 knows that when supply far exceeds demand, prices go down…
Oil prices have gotten crushed for the last six months. The extent to which that was caused by an excess of supply or by a slowdown in demand has big implications for where prices will head next. People wishing for a big rebound may not want to read farther.
Goldman Sachs released an intriguing analysis on Wednesday that shows what many already suspected: The big culprit in the oil crash has been an abundance of oil flooding the market. A massive supply shock in the second half of last year accounted for most of the decline. In December and January, slowing demand contributed to the continued sell-off.
At this point so much oil has already been stored up that companies are running out of places to put in all. Just consider the words of Goldman Sachs executive Gary Cohn…
“I think the oil market is trying to figure out an equilibrium price. The danger here, as we try and find an equilibrium price, at some point we may end up in a situation where storage capacity gets very, very limited. We may have too much physical oil for the available storage in certain locations. And it may be a locational issue.”
“And you may just see lots of oil in certain locations around the world where oil will have to price to such a cheap discount vis-a-vis the forward price that you make second tier, and third tier and fourth tier storage available.”
[…] “You could see the price fall relatively quickly to make that storage work in the market.”
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/price-oil-likely-fall-20-rather-rise-80
I just went out to the military base near here. At the lowest, it was $1.62 a few weeks ago. Today it was $1.92.
And investors in American oil producers. Lots of money and jobs lost. When they go out of business, we can just buy from Saudi and they will increase price.
Not to mention the gub'ment is going to come down on Fracking more and more whether there is a need for such or not. Thus costs will go up.
I am sorry, I do not see this as a problem for the greater economy. Cheap energy usually spurs increased economic activity and greater savings for customers.
What has happened over the last six year is that the average consumer has been hit with a silent tax on everything they buy, not just auto fuel, but all products to compensate for the ridiculous high price of gas. We have all gotten a big tax break.
Nonsense! When the cost of energy goes down so does the cost of everything else, including the cost of living. This leads to an increase in creation/distribution of wealth and paying down of personal debt releasing money for more creation/distribution of wealth.
Plentiful low cost energy is always a good thing. And the only reason we haven't had it for decades is "government". Our recent increase in oil supply and its reduction in price is due entirely to the private sector while our government, especially federal, scrambled to kill it.
So thank the private sector for lower prices at the pump and home heating. Thank the private sector for more money staying in your pocket to purchase groceries. And damn the government and its worrywarts for trying to take it all away from you!
Woe is me.
While everyone says inflation is down. Right.
BDI is lowest in 5 years Are there any longer charts? I can’t find one.
I see the west's insistence at poking the bear in Ukraine and not stopping ISIS when they could've as to real bad situations. I also wonder about maniacs spreading their reach in Africa as economies fail. Can those folks self-govern? And what about Europe and the US, enabling those who practice an alien religion having such a strong presence? And what if there's a disease out of a refugee camp or out of Africa that can't be controlled? What happens when the Turks try to keep Kurdish territory? etc
It's a house of cards, all inter-related. Something's got to give.
BDI back to 1985, arthurus:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Dry_Index#mediaviewer/File:BDI.png
or search for Baltic Dry Index historical.
Copper is at a low ebb too, so a recession is due (or formal recognition of the ongoing one) is in the offing.
“The realization that the public debt is the government selling you and your posterity into slavery because by income taxes (which are non-voluntary) it is guaranteed against the income of you and your posterity ...”
Or you can choose not to be a slave to this fascist state and go Galt (or in my case, go Harden. Doesn’t quite have the same ring though.) Keep your MAGI low, and you won’t be paying to support this overreaching government.
Lucky you... In California the lowest it got around where I live was 2.19. Now 2.69.
Thanks.
On that 30 year chart the index doesn’t look nearly so ominous. 2004 to 2009 looks like an anomaly.
I see it as ominous — indicative of a formal recession. The lower BDI levels, reflecting lower shipping costs, indicate lower international shipping costs — with the usual supply/demand relationship. Low BDIs mean low costs, which means lots of capacity meaning economic activity (often in ores and coals shipped) is at a low, low ebb. High levels indicate higher shipping costs and higher economic activity as the price to ship gets bid up as demand for shipping space rises commensurately.
This correlates with copper and oil tumbling. There is a lot less economic activity worldwide. And all of this despite trillions in Fed “easing.”
Federal Reserve Insider Alan Greenspan Warns:There Will Be a “Significant Market Event Something Big”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3260461/posts
On This Day In History, The Baltic Dry Index Has Never Been Lower
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3244977/posts
It is 95% full. Why do you think we should expanded it? How many days of OPEC imports do you want the Feds to spend our tax dollars on@
The major U.S. “banks” are calling for higher interest rates in June of this year already. Along with ending QEs.
And why? The “ACA” has now every U.S. person in the, “hammer” “hammer” “clink” “clink”, shackle of a body mortgage. (minus the exempt)
In short, I am concerned about the saber rattling in the Ukraine. I see military action in the future and if it happens, it will have a significant impact on the fuel supply.
Since it is almost full, the capacity may not need to be expanded.
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