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To: Longbow1969
Third possibility. Russia pushes into Ukraine and is bled by guerrilla warfare till it withdraws with an even more broken economy.

That's what the Chechen terrorists and Chechen Military said about Russian Military at it weakest point, twenty years ago.

The Chechen Military is now one of the options Putin can order against the Ukes if he so chooses. Let's hope he doesn't, because they will do as they are told.

11 posted on 04/25/2014 1:56:09 PM PDT by Navy Patriot (Join the Democrats, it's not Fascism when WE do it, and the Constitution and law mean what WE say.)
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To: Navy Patriot
That's what the Chechen terrorists and Chechen Military said about Russian Military at it weakest point, twenty years ago

Point taken, but I don't think that sort of blunt, brute, frontal attack against Ukrainians is possible for very long because I do believe it would draw such condemnation and actual sanctions (not Obama's pinpricks) that could cripple the Russian economy. I think much of the world was, even if they didn't admit it, sympathetic to Russia in the conflict against the Chechens. No one much wanted the Chechen terrorists to win that one. Ukraine looks like a Western country that many in the West can relate to, the kind of tactics Russia employed in the Chechen war is probably not viable here.

I think Russia could obviously seize whatever parts of Eastern Ukraine they want, but I am not so certain the support for that, even amongst ethnic Russians in Ukraine, really exists. I think you'll even begin to see protests and unrest in Crimea as the initial euphoria wears off and people start having difficulty receiving pensions, buying goods, etc.

The deeper Russia pushes into Ukraine, the more I think the Ukrainians can just bleed them till they leave.

Anyway, you seem pretty learned on this subject, so I have a question for you. I am of the opinion that Russia is really not that strong, that only about 10-20% of their military is first world, and that they really don't have the ability to project power in any meaningful fashion. What do you think about that assessment? And one more, do you think in a head to head fight, Russia could defeat Poland (minus the nukes ofcourse)?.

26 posted on 04/25/2014 4:12:38 PM PDT by Longbow1969
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