Saw Claire Shipman and another woman on TV touting their book The Confidence Code and they said something interesting - confidence matters more than competence when it comes to getting ahead (their point is that women lack the natural confidence of men). I actually have seen this many many times - but there are certain jobs where it finally catches up to you. Many sciences are immune to braggadocio, although not climatology apparently, and certainly the truth of Obamacare would have put any rational person who was responsible for the mega-disaster into the mental ward.