Posted on 03/16/2014 5:30:23 PM PDT by Starman417
I've avoided this topic, waiting for another shoe to drop. Now it has.
Malaysian Air Flight 370 has been an enigma almost right from the beginning. Large jet aircraft do not simply disappear. Not in 2014. A little voice in my head kept saying that there's a lot more than we're being told.
No debris field was found. Had the jet exploded high in the air, a large debris field would have been spotted, as seen following the loss of TWA flight 800. If the jet dove into the water, the debris field would have been smaller, but most definitely findable. The black boxes are designed to send signals following a crash or an explosion. It hasn't. The 777 has redundant communications systems, which are not easy to disable.
We were told the aircraft just disappeared without a trace. Later we learned that that was not true. The Malaysian government has been the biggest pain in the ass during the time the flight has been missing.
Kuala Lumpur: Malaysian authorities said on Thursday there was no evidence that a jetliner missing for almost six days flew for hours after losing contact with air traffic controllers and continued to transmit technical data.
Those in the know knew better:
U.S. investigators suspect that Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 stayed in the air for up to four hours past the time it reached its last confirmed location, according to two people familiar with the details, raising the possibility that the plane could have flown on for hundreds of additional miles under conditions that remain murky.The investigators believe the plane flew for a total of up to five hours, according to these people, based on analysis of signals sent by the Boeing 777's satellite-communication link designed to automatically transmit the status of certain onboard systems to the ground.
Throughout the roughly four hours after the jet dropped from civilian radar screens, these people said, the link operated in a kind of standby mode and sought to establish contact with a satellite or satellites. These transmissions did not include data, they said, but the periodic contacts indicate to investigators that the plane was still intact and believed to be flying.
But those dopes in Kuala Lumpur denied it:
"Those reports are inaccurate," Malaysian Transport Minister Hishammuddin Hussein told a news conference. "As far as both Rolls-Royce and Boeing are concerned, those reports are inaccurate. The last (data) transmission from the aircraft was at 01:07 a.m.(local time) which indicated that everything was normal."
Now the big question- is the Malaysian government that stupid or are they inept? Or worse?
It stinks. It stinks bad.
Now come some amazing revelations:
The pilot is described as a "fanatic" and there is more eyebrow raising news:
An image has emerged of the pilot of the missing Malaysia Airlines jet wearing a T-shirt with a 'Democracy is Dead' slogan as it has been revealed he could have hijacked the plane in an anti-government protest.Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah, a father-of-three, was said to be a 'fanatical' supporter of the country's opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim - jailed for homosexuality just hours before the jet disappeared.
It has also been revealed that the pilot's wife and three children moved out of the family home the day before the plane went missing.
It comes as FBI investigators say the disappearance of MH370 may have been ‘an act of piracy’ and the possibility that hundreds of passengers are being held at an unknown location has not been ruled out.
Officials also revealed that it is possible the aircraft could have landed and transmitted a satellite signal from the ground. If the plane was intact and had enough electrical power in reserve, it would be able to send out a radar 'ping'.
The second we learned that officials were seeking to search the pilot's home it was apparent something curious was ongoing, and we weren't privy to it.
Malaysian officials are now certain that the jet was hijacked.
The jet is described as having climbed to 45,000 feet, possibly to cause the passengers and crew to lose consciousness, before plunging rapidly. The accuracy of the altitude changes is in dispute, however:
Goglia said he is very skeptical of reports the plane was flying erratically while it was being tracked by military radar, including steep ascents to very high altitudes and then sudden, rapid descents. Without a transponder signal, the ability to track planes isn't reliable at very high altitudes or with sudden shifts in altitude, he said.
There seems little doubt that the aircraft was hijacked and given the complexity of the actions taken, it appears that it was conducted by those with specially trained skills:
(Excerpt) Read more at floppingaces.net...
No thanks.
SUMMARY PROVIDED BY MEMBER [ rcair1 ]: EXTRACT FROM POST 66 IN THREAD 27
http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/6026788
Sanity Check
• Doing this as much to keep my brain aligned as to provide a data source.
• The facts have not changed much, however the is more data about track and time-line
• I’ve tried to be as factually accurate as I can - but I’m not an expert in each system - so if there factual errors please advise.
• I’m going to try to list what we know, not what we think - we being the public. And sadly it is very short.
First a synopsis
• The ship took off normally and headed on course to Beijing
• The last ACARS transmission was about 01:07 local. Confusion continues about if and when ACARS was turned off(See ACARS below)
• The last comms were a normal hand-off from Malaysia to Vietnam control at about 1:30 local. It was a normal ‘good night’ on the Malaysian side, but Vietnam was not contacted.
• The aircraft dropped off secondary radar with no communication from the cockpit.
• There are reports of a climb to 45K, uneven descent and some changes in altitude. Since this is based on primary radar - altitude data is somewhat uncertain. The last has been reported as 29,500ft but that seems in dispute.
• There are subsequent primary radar returns west over Malacca Straight and then north west Since it is primarily radar - a reflection - it does identify the a/c, however it has been correlated with SATCOM pings so confidence is high that the returns are from MH370
• SATCOM system pings continued for 7+ hrs after LOS (loss of signal)
• SATCOM pings do not locate the aircraft but based on correlation to signal strength there are 2 paths the aircraft could have taken
• Path one is north over Andaman Sea, Bay of Bengal as far as Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and is consistent with primary radar.
• Path two is south over the India Ocean west of Australia. We’ve had no reports of radar signals in that area.
• The last SATCOM ping was at 8:11 am Malaysian time. At that time it would be dark on the north path and light over the south path.
• We have no ELT signal detected.
• While authorities (Malaysian) have not confirmed this is a hijacking or purposeful event - it is believed that is highly likely by most, however, motivation is unknown.
ACARS
• ACARS is an automated aircraft communication system that transmits a/c information, primarily maintenance information, to maintenance facilities like the airline, Boeing, Engine Manf, etc.
• ACARS is NOT a flight system - it is not needed for safe flight.
• ACARS is a subscription service and costs money. All indications are the MH370 was subscribed only to engine health monitoring and data from that is sent to Rolls Royce.
• ACARS communicates via VHF or SATCOM (and maybe Wifi at the gate). The communications channel depends on availability and is independent of the ACARS.
ACARS data from MH370
• The ACARS system sent 2 engine health reports to Rolls Royce, both prior to the LOS event.
• There seems to be disagreement on if the ACARS was switched off, or if it was not expected to send more data.
• The Malaysian PM stated they had high confidence ACARS was turned off.
• But, Rolls Royce has not commented on if more ACARS reports would have been expected prior to landing.
• Turning off ACARS reportedly requires entering the EE bay which is not simple in flight.
• UPDATE per TriStarSteve,26, 186:Pilots can deselect ACARS transmission by VHF and SATCOM. This does not turn off the VHF and SATCOM, just stops ACARS from using them.
• The ACARS report received prior to LOS had ‘interesting’ altitude data/fluctuations including 40K drop in a minute. That data is suspect.
• UPDATE: Per the RR webpage a snapshot would be expected at takeoff, climb, cruise and summary post landing.
• Since no “landing” report was received, then either the ACARS was turned off, or the a/c did not land. It is not clear to me if the last report was climb or cruise.
• We have not heard if ACARS would send a report upon fuel starvation flame-out.
SATCOM
• SATCOM is a communications channel - Satellite Communications. It is a radio system that uses satellites to communicate various information.
• SATCOM is not ACARS - it is one of the channels ACARS can use.
• The SATCOM system on MH370 was connecting to Inmarsat satellites.
SATCOM Pings
• The SATCOM system sends (or responds to) periodic ‘pings’ to/from the satellites. These ‘pings’ are a network communication that says “I am here.”
• SATCOM pings are not communicating a/c status, they are part of the communications channel.
• The last pings were detected at 8:11am Malaysia time
• SATCOM pings provide no aircraft heading, speed or altitude information, however, distance from the Satellite can be estimated.
• Based on analysis of the SATCOM pings by Inmarsat, two possible routes have been predicted based upon a radius from the satellite picking up the pings.
• People have asked if SATCOM pings would occur if the aircraft was landed, but operating.
• We have not seen data on this, but I would presume it would.
• People have asked if SATCOM pings could come from a crashed plane if the right parts survived.
• Very unlikely. The system is not self contained, the equipment, power and antennas are separate.
CRV/FDR Data
• The CVR (cockpit voice recorder) and FDR (flight data recorder) do not transmit data in flight.
• They do emit sonic pings if immersed. These will last a minimum of 30 days. We can expect sonar is being used to listen for them.
• The CVR reportedly is a 120 minute CVR so it would contain only the last 120 minutes of flight (presuming it did not fail or was turned off prior to that).
• I don’t have data form the recording time of the FDR, but it is typically much longer.
Way-point Tracks
• The use of way-points to the navigate are conjecture. They happen to line up with the direction indicated by the primary radar returns and Inmarsat data to the north.
• While many believe the aircraft was under control - we cannot conclude if these way-point were used, or just along the path.
Airworthiness Directive
• The airworthiness directive about corrosion near the SATCOM antenna does not apply to this ship.
• The ship DOES have SATCOM - but uses a different antenna
Lithium Battery Fires.
• There are reports of a shipment of lithium batteries on the a/c and that perhaps they caused a fire.
• It seems very unlikely a fire could be intense enough to disable the crew, but then the a/c would survive and fly for 7+ hours.
• Opinion: as a firefighter, I doubt this. The fire would destroy the a/c.
Search Areas
• Along the planed route. I believe searching in this area is ending or decreasing based on new data indicating the a/c is not there
• West over the Malacca straight
• North west of Malacca straight
• Along the two tracks predicted by the SATCOM pings which continue north to Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and south to the India Ocean.
• These are huge search areas - I do not have a good handle on what assets are deployed where
• It appears the north route is considered more likely because of primary radar signals that roughly correlate.
• I would expect review of primary radar west of Australia is in process if not done.
Conspiracy Theories
• There are lots of conspiracy theories out there - from the Malaysian government hiding something to pilot suicide, to hijacking to whatever.
• The breadth of the countries searching alone makes me discount many of the government is hiding it aspects
• It is likely there are covert (secret) resources in the area that are trying to provide the info without revealing themselves.
• Currently, it seems most believe there is some positive action here - hijacker or crew based.
• Opinion: Mostly, I believe this is because a mechanical failure that selectively terminates communication, incapacitates the crew/passengers, but then allows the a/c to fly on uncontrolled for 7 hours seems unlikely.
• Investigations of crew have begun in earnest.
• Despite the belief this is incident required human actions - we have no evidence of that. Rather - no other theory seems credible.
Mobile phones
• We know that if any mobile phones were connected to the tower - we would have a location and would search there.
• We don’t have any reports or evidence of that - so I conclude that it is not viable to consider.
I’ve deleted the sections on incompetence and false sitings - for brevity.
IN summary what we know is.
• The a/c disappeared from secondary radar and stopped communicating. We do not know why or what happened to it.
• There is evidence from SATCOM and Radar that the a/c traveled west - then most likely north west.
• SATCOM signals show the a/c was operating till at least 8:11am Malaysia time, over 7 hrs total flight time
• We have not found it despite multiple governmental agencies from multiple countries searching hard.
What seems likely.
• A hijacking or positive intervention by human agency seems likely.
• The erratic altitude and course may indicate a struggle on board.
• While we would like to believe the a/c landed safely somewhere, that seems unlikely to have happened unobserved.
That is all.
Respectfully Submitted - rcair1
More precisely, "Political Fanatic", it's the new liberal rhetoric for terrorist, or workplace violence.
Good job. I’d like to know what time it is there. It is 5:50 here on West Coast U.S. — what time in Malaysia?
Until I personally see those ACARS message I have doubts as to any veracity of them. Boeing has NDAs going out to all personnel even remotely involved in crash investigations. They cannot so much as mention the name of the flight outside Boeing walls. They cannot comment in any way. The ACARS processing companies have the same NDA as do the flight operations companies.
North Korea launched a missile in a plane’s flight path within a week of this incident.
Saber rattling can have consequences.
Someone who knows something may not be talking.
Then again, Sec. of State Hillary denied the North Koreans were at fault when a Japanese boat was sunk by a torpedo...
Malaysia is UTC/GMT + 8 hours.
Have you read the story?
Syria can cross a “line”. So can the Russians. So can North Korea. So can the Chi-Coms. So can...
Until they find the bird or its pieces its all speculation.
The Western provinces in China have a lot of very militant Muslims who have been agitating for their own 3rd world Islamic slum for many years
I have wondered if they might be involved in this somehow or another.
The same thing has come to my mind but I have not voiced that here. It’s bad enough the flak I’ve taken FReeprs for going out on a limb...and being right.
But something like this would be a game changer especially it happened on US soil. That’s why I say prepare now in case this happens.
As in the movie Red Dawn the way the Russians first attacked were with chartered commercial airliners . Just adding another theory.
>>No thanks.<<
Many words, all speculation — nothing anyone needs to know.
I usually like Flopping Aces but this was clarifying nothing.
Shades of TWA flight 800
Also, if the nations of the world go at each other’s necks over who did this then they’ll need a global peacemaker to keep the worst from happening.
Enter the false messiah to the world stage.
Were there ship(s) standing by while the plane was being ditched. Did divers remove the black boxes and destroy them? It was a number of days before people switched from looking in the South China Sea to the Indian Ocean. Plenty of time to perform the operation and skiddadle.
Russia's airlifters belong to the civilian fleet so this is possible in real life. We had the CRAF which is the civilian cargo birds with strengthened floors that are supposed to augment our airlifter fleet if things went hot during the cold war.
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