Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Who will be the BIGGEST LOSER today: Obama, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, or Nate Silver?
one man's opinion...

Posted on 11/06/2012 6:52:49 AM PST by ken5050

Nate Silver has gone all in for Obama. In his final column today, he gives Obama a 91.6% chance of winning, which is UP 14.2% since Sandy.


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS:
In short, he bases his analysis on the many individual state polls; in effect discounting the national polls which show Mitt winning.

State polls, most of which are run by the MSM, have used sampling models that assume a Democrat turnout that is, a best, unrealistic; and at worst, a deliberate attempt to influence the election by discouraging the GOP base.

2004 pretty much discredited exit polls. Hopefully 2012 will be the year that finally buries most of these so-called polls.

Nate Silver started out analyzing baseball players. Maybe after today, he can get a new gig, as a statistical analyst for the National Hockey League..

1 posted on 11/06/2012 6:52:56 AM PST by ken5050
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: ken5050

http://www.natesilverwaswrong.com/


2 posted on 11/06/2012 6:55:40 AM PST by Nervous Tick ("You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ken5050

use the “bigger they are, harder they fall” model. Obama, then Reid, then Pelosi, then Silver. Silver is a peanut, no matter how far he falls, he hasn’t lost much, because he doesn’t have much to begin with.


3 posted on 11/06/2012 6:56:10 AM PST by Cboldt
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cboldt

Agree totally with that.


4 posted on 11/06/2012 6:57:49 AM PST by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: ken5050

I will go with Michael Baronne over silver. Silvers claim to fame is picking 49 of 50 states last time. Big deal. I picked 45 of 50


5 posted on 11/06/2012 6:59:00 AM PST by wny
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Cboldt

Good morning my friend! How goes the war? Hearing good early news out of Ohio, Iowa and Virginia.


6 posted on 11/06/2012 7:02:00 AM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: ken5050

All of them !


7 posted on 11/06/2012 7:02:32 AM PST by American Constitutionalist
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ken5050

They’re all guilty of Treason. No blindfolds; no last Kobe burger! I want them to see it coming...................


8 posted on 11/06/2012 7:02:55 AM PST by Doc Savage ("I've shot people I like a lot more,...for a lot less!" Raylan Givins)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ken5050

I sure as heck hope that they all come out losers but the damn MSM is so giddy today that it is alarming.
I am going to set a record for prayers today, that is the only thing I am sure of.


9 posted on 11/06/2012 7:05:55 AM PST by JerseyDvl (Cogito Ergo Doleo Soetoro, ABO and of course FUBO!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Doc Savage

All of the above


10 posted on 11/06/2012 7:06:26 AM PST by scooby321 (AMS)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: ken5050

91.6% is pretty damn high,either he is wildly optimistic or he knows something we dont.

Either way, If Zero wins, then the American people lose.

If Romney wins, then all the above lose...

its that simple. Liberty or Tyranny will win today.


11 posted on 11/06/2012 7:07:00 AM PST by wyowolf
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ken5050

Biggest loser in a way will be Silver. His entire future cred rides on this. Obama? This is his last rodeo anyway.


12 posted on 11/06/2012 7:09:18 AM PST by C. Edmund Wright ("GONE: The Four Year Wave That Rocked The Bubble" due out Nov 8th)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ken5050

Can anyone believe anything from the NYT? Silver is just another ‘in the tank’ journalist who spews his venom on the printed page. It is shameful that the once proud Grey Lady has turned into a political rag!


13 posted on 11/06/2012 7:09:37 AM PST by 2010Freeper
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: wyowolf

I think everyone has it wrong. In betting, the goal is to pay as little as possible. If he sees that all of the betters are pro obama, and they bet on him, then there will be fewer for romney and less of a payout. That’s how I see it. It is a money-making scheme and has little to do with reality and more to do with what his bettors are thinking.


14 posted on 11/06/2012 7:10:00 AM PST by Suz in AZ
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: ken5050

Nate Silver, no doubt.

Anyone who calls a 91% probability in an election where one of the candidates is not wearing an orange jumpsuit is a damned fool!


15 posted on 11/06/2012 7:11:03 AM PST by Buckeye McFrog
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ken5050

Moochelle.


16 posted on 11/06/2012 7:11:25 AM PST by eartrumpet
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ken5050

The biggest loser will be anybody who bought hope and change four years ago and is buying it again!


17 posted on 11/06/2012 7:12:33 AM PST by AngelesCrestHighway
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ken5050

May the heros of Benghazi be proud of how we vote today.

They gave their lives for us, now we need to give our votes for them.

Vote as if the lives of our Military Men and Women depended on it.


18 posted on 11/06/2012 7:13:38 AM PST by Graewoulf ((Traitor John Roberts' Obama"care" violates Sherman Anti-Trust Law, AND the U.S. Constitution.))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ken5050

As a life long Hockey fan, please don’t give Bettman any more bright ideas.


19 posted on 11/06/2012 7:17:06 AM PST by NYCop (In Memory of Maj Francis E Visconti USMC, MIA since 22 NOV 65, but not forgotten)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: trappedincanuckistan
-- Good morning my friend! How goes the war? --

Gorgeous but chilly weather. Will go to the polls this afternoon, taking daughter who turned 18 in February. Three Romney votes in a blue district and blue state. There is a homo marriage thing on the ballot. I'm not sure which side that favors, in this liberal la-la land.

I see a repeat of 2010 coming. Some people (press, DEMs, politicians) learn real slow, and need to be reminded over a long period of time.

I'm hoping we put Charlie Summers in the Senate, but I don't expect that.

Will be a typical quiet day at work/home, up until 8 PM or so when watching teevee and reading news will start to get more interesting.

Hope you and yours are doing well. Enjoy the camaraderie at the polling place!

20 posted on 11/06/2012 7:17:51 AM PST by Cboldt
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Cboldt

“Enjoy the camaraderie at the polling place!”

I’m in Canada. However, I have voted three times in NJ by email.


21 posted on 11/06/2012 7:21:08 AM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: ken5050

How can any of these individuals who are already complete LOSERS lose more? Pelosi, Reid, and Obama are morally bankrupt and Silver is completely in the tank for Obama. You can’t take more from those that already have zero...negative numbers don’t work with LOSERS.


22 posted on 11/06/2012 7:21:38 AM PST by 2010Freeper
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ken5050

Nate Silver will learn today that Statistics do lie and have little in common with sociology.

Reid will be the big loser after his whopper of “we won’t work with Romney” — as it may lead to him being ousted as Senate Leader (or minority leader) If not, then look for some Democrat Senators defecting to Independent.

Pelosi’s 15 minutes of fame ended 2 years ago so who cares about her.


23 posted on 11/06/2012 7:23:39 AM PST by Usagi_yo
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ken5050

Whoever has the “most to lose” will be the biggest loser.
I don’t know who that might be if it’s not Obama.
But ALL those named will not lose anything they’ve managed
to accumulate during their political careers, they’ll just lose their effective careers, which will be coming to an end right about now, anyway.


24 posted on 11/06/2012 7:26:55 AM PST by supremedoctrine
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ken5050

I don’t care who is the biggest loser today as long as it isn’t America.

If Obma wins we are in for some dark days, (No pun intended).


25 posted on 11/06/2012 7:28:10 AM PST by Venturer
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: trappedincanuckistan
-- I'm in Canada. However, I have voted three times in NJ by email. --

Heh. Well, the mail server there is probably down, so your sendings are still queued up for delivery.

Maybe grab a coffee at a Tim Horton's then.

26 posted on 11/06/2012 7:28:17 AM PST by Cboldt
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: ken5050

The media.


27 posted on 11/06/2012 7:28:22 AM PST by ryan71
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ken5050

I HOPE Harry Reid is the biggest loser. We need the senate.


28 posted on 11/06/2012 7:28:49 AM PST by SandyInSeattle (Romney is my choice.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ken5050
I'm watching Nate. It's not that he is biased toward Obama, but merely the polls and coverage he watches and compares could be biased.

I'm very interested if his predictions will be accurate or the long list of 'conservatives' who contest his predictions.

29 posted on 11/06/2012 7:30:29 AM PST by Theoria (Romney is a Pyrrhic victory.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ken5050

All those pols will find a soft landing somewhere, at some lib think tank or institute I guess

But Nate Silver will be running a tire store twelve months out lol


30 posted on 11/06/2012 7:44:32 AM PST by Reaganite Republican
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ken5050

Liberalism will be the biggest loser -

It lost in 2010

It lost in WI twice with the recall

It will lose again today.

People have had it - even liberals are seeing the light - liberalism doesn’t work.

Romney 366 - Landslide


31 posted on 11/06/2012 7:51:56 AM PST by MissH
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ken5050

Intrade is jumping onto the Obama bandwagon now, too. It’s currently 72.5 to 27.5.


32 posted on 11/06/2012 8:13:32 AM PST by ScottinVA (Pray hard!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Usagi_yo
After the Dems lose the Senate, Reid will retire..rather than being forced out..his wife is, sadly, quite ill, so he has that as a face-saving reason..the need to care for her..

Schumer and Durbin will fight a steel cage death match for the minority leader spot..

33 posted on 11/06/2012 10:06:58 AM PST by ken5050 (Another reason to vote for Mitt: The Mormon Tabernacle Choir will perform at the WH Christmas party)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: ken5050

NATE SILVER IS THE BIGGEST LOSER!


34 posted on 11/06/2012 10:10:21 AM PST by WashingtonSource
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson