I was bookmarking this until I realized that FR will be down.
Ping for election night.
I’m praying that our margins prevent the same old late night tricks from the usual places like Madison county etc.
If our (Ravi, LS, and me to a lesser extent) analysis of the early numbers hold true along with even a modest least with independents (6 points) and “undecideds” breaking 2-1 for Romney then I think the final number in Ohio will be too big for any outcome other than Romney wins.
Probably by 1:00 AM just because of network reluctance.
On the other hand I think it’s very possible that RR beats zero by a few points less than the margin Walker won this last time (which was 6.8). If RR is up by even 3% after most counties have reported then no late night tricks will be enough to change the outcome IMO.
Conservatives in Wisconsin have really proved themselves and the GOP counties have gotten smarter about not letting Madison report last.
As long as NH goes our way then all the drama in the world won’t change Ohio.
That would really take the wind out of their (media) sails election night.
I do however agree that if the margins end up being as close as you suggest then the evening would unfold just like you say.
But I don’t think it will be that close and I’m quite confident that the media will have to call FL, VA, and CO much sooner than they would prefer.