There is no one possibly w a chance to win in 2012 other than myth or thugbama.
I will vote for neither; I refuse to vote for a socialist.
If the GOP wants my vote, then they really need to quit only saying things and start actively pursuing the party platforms such as: illegalizing abortion, government accountability, reducing the size of government, being fiscally responsible. As it is, there are very few who actually make any efforts towards these goals, so as-a-party I can only assume that they are liars, always making excuse for not following through.
(Remember the bailouts, they started with Bush and the airlines; remember TARP, it would not have passed without Republican participation; remember that the Republicans held the executive and legislative under Bush and did not do so much as propose a resolution to consider the unborn as persons for the sake of homicide; remember also NY-23, wherein the GOP endorsed the Democratic nominee rather than a Tea Party republican candidate who had won the primary.)
If the result is that the Dems win for the next ten, twenty, or forty years then good on them; for they at least are active in pursuing their stated goals. (I may find those goals repugnant, but they aren't lying about the things they want: more government control & regulation.)
My point: it is better to be shot at from the front than it is from the back.