[SoConPubbie]

Sarah needs to nail down what’s behind the unfavorables. Otherwise rats will rape us with Romney like they did with McCain.

HIstorically, POTUS polls have a wide swing to them.

Be very careful of making prognostications or speaking of the inevitability of Sarah losing this far out.

11/05/2010 11:26:39 AM PDT · 24 of 36
Al B. to onyx; SoConPubbie

Harris Poll January 29, 1980:

CARTER NOW FAR AHEAD OF BOTH REAGAN AND BUSH

"President Carter so dominates the American political scene now that his margin over Ronald Reagan in a post-Iowa trial heat has risen to an overwhelming 65-31 percent."

Also, Time magazine ran a big story in March of that year basically saying Reagan was unelectable. Gallup had a poll in that time frame with Reagan down 25 points.

Here's another blast from the past, March 10, 1980. The GOP establishment had decided they needed another candidate besides Bush to stop Reagan and started recruiting Gerald Ford:

ABC News - Harris poll: FORD LEADS BOTH CARTER AND REAGAN, ALTHOUGH STILL UNDECLARED CANDIDATE

"Former President Gerald Ford is the first choice of Republican and independent voters to head the GOP ticket, even though he has not yet declared himself a candidate for the Republican nomination.

Ford also leads President Carter among the general electorate."

Here's another one for your collection:

Historic Whispers: Ronald Reagan Had Little Chance of Winning the Primary

White House political strategists have concluded—regretfully—that Ronald Reagan is fading and will have little chance of winning the Republican presidential nomination in 1980. Why the regrets? Because Carter's aides are convinced that the conservative, 68-year-old former California governor is an easy target. (April 2, 1979)

Here's another one for your collection:

Historic Whispers: Ronald Reagan Had Little Chance of Winning the Primary

White House political strategists have concluded—regretfully—that Ronald Reagan is fading and will have little chance of winning the Republican presidential nomination in 1980. Why the regrets? Because Carter's aides are convinced that the conservative, 68-year-old former California governor is an easy target. (April 2, 1979)

[Al B.]

Also be wary of surveys of "party insiders".

At about the same time (April, 1979) that U.S. News 'Washington Whispers' report came out, a survey of GOP insiders had both Reagan and Bush tied for a distant third in preference by 'insiders' for the 1980 nomination -- to both John Connally and Howard Baker.

That was why US News in the link you posted said Reagan was "fading" and the Carter WH was sad about it. Connally subsequently spent a huge amount of money (for the time -- $11 million) in his campaign and got exactly one (1 delegate to the 1980 convention. LOL.

Once we have declared candidates and they start going at one another, everything changes. That's why Team Rove/Romney/Gillespie et al want to stop Palin NOW.