Posted on 03/15/2009 5:10:58 PM PDT by arthurus
Since this current bear market took sixteen months to materialize, I estimate that within one year from today, fifty percent off the losses will be recovered, which would put the DJIA at around 10,700. The following year, we'll probably see an additional 30-40% rally, which will push it above 14,000.
(Excerpt) Read more at seekingalpha.com ...
A very clever twist on one of my favorite Reganisms.
Okay, that run-up from 1980-1997 seems unsustainable. And also, it would skew the results of the overall graph and make it a higher slope than it would be otherwise. So, the sustainable slope should even be lower than what is shown by the lower slope that is given, overall.
I see where they are coming up with the 3,000 and 4,000 Dow... :-)
And if Hoover first, then FDR had stayed the hell away from it all there would have been a classic "Panic" and a rapid recovery. It would all have been over in 5 or 6 quarters max.
LOL. I said the same thing about $950 gold back . . . in the 1970s.
sw
Obama is a politician. While he is definitely a socialist at heart, he is a politician first. I am not missing anything. I know what they are doing. But the reality is that he is going to have a lot of very able bodied Americans furious with him, namely all of the business owners. His support is already dropping, and losing Democrats that weren’t part of his pay and play scheme. That is why he is trying to ram all this through right off the bat, because if he waits there will be no support for it. He needs to act now. America isn’t going to stand for this long. The Tea Parties are already starting. 10th Amendment claims being made. He will have to cooperate sooner or later just to keep his office. The problem is the whole country is being run strictly by politics now, and there is no rational thought about consequences.
30 largest caps
What is the basis for this author’s conclusion? Did he factor in President Obama and the Gang that couldn’t shoot straight?
Sounds like someone may have some stock they are trying to dump
Well, he could be right.
Rapid currency devaluation could get us there very quickly...
if the market is going up, it’s only because congress no longer takes Barry seriously.
All weekend the talking heads have been saying that energy and healthcare taxes are DOA. Hearing them say this, in the nicest way possible, has been like watching a game of twister.
The current market trend is down. The trend is your friend. Even with the last few days rally the volume has been decreasing as the market moves up. This shows weakness.
IMHO I think we see 3,000 before we see 10,000
This person must be a socialist.
The only good news I’ve heard is that there is 7 trillion on the sidelines waiting for a real bottom.
If much of that goes into the market we might see 10-11,000 in a year, but 14,000 seems far fetched to me.
Fake bubbles are the only way to make money IMO.
ping to chart in post 78. IMO we are 1/2 way through the 70’s bear market, getting ready for one of those little bumps.
Want to get really depressed? :-)
"What cost $950 in 1979 would cost $2680.35 in 2007."
The crashes of 29, 37, 71 74, 82, 87, 02, we’re all ended not with a fizzle, but a straight up move. For reasonable and rational people to think that this will end with some long drawn out process is stupid. Crashes are shaped in a V pattern, not a U.
The best time to make money, is in the turn, or the frothy bubble bull market. My studies indicate that fed actions are generally the inflection points. m2m and uptick, are the catalysts our history boooks will point to as the end of this mess. Furthermore, most people apparently have an iq of less than 90, because the banks are making an obscene amount of money right now, and since they are the heart of the “problem”...
If I had to guess, I’d say the dow is up between 50-80% in the next 12-15 months.
I just hope, unlike the Panic of 1907, that instead of getting even more speculative, and more leveraged, that the world finally learns its lesson. I’ll be paying close attention, will not be holding the bag for the really, really big one.
And if you look at the charts between 1969-1982, that is exactly what happened. After a couple whipsaws, it created a trading range. Just a tip, but a wee bit before the old highs, as everyone else gonna be thinking and doing the same.
So, in your opinion, those drug companies doing 200b in stock deals in the last month are really, really stupid, have no idea of what they were doing?
I love too, how people loudly whine carp and moan about printing money, inflation, then think they’re intellectuals as they say stocks will not go up. Well gee whiz, what the heck do they think inflation, inflates?
Oh, only bread, oil, wood, prices of goods?.... But yeah, no publicly traded stock company makes those goods, right?
The real story here, is inflation inflating goods/services, stocks, real estate. Then, you inflate away the liabilities of you, me, and uncle sam. The real victims, will be the treasury holders left holding the bag. Most likely, right in here, we just created a low on interest rates that will probably hold for 25-30 yrs.
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