Britain: There's not going to be an election

QuentinLangley.net ^ | 20 August 2007 | Quentin Langley

[qlangley]

Ever since Gordon Brown became Prime Minister at the end of June he has had a lead in the polls over David Cameron's Conservatives. So speculation is rife that he will call an autumn election.

I have already pointed out a couple of flaws with this. He would need to do so in September, on the basis of three months opinion polls, and two of those months would be July and August, when most people's minds are not really on politics. He is too cautious for that. He remembers 1970, when Harold Wilson, having trailed in the polls for some time, called an election on the basis of a few months in the lead, and lost.

Secondly, there is nothing to be gained from an election. If he called an election after four months in power and won, the Blairites would claim the victor as theirs: Tony\'s Fourth Term. And if he lost, he would be the shortest serving Prime Minister since Canning, almost 200 years ago. Neither result would be ideal for a man of such monumental self-belief.

But a further factor has occurred to me. What if the polls are right, and Brown's lead is maintained? What if Labour gains votes in the election, but he still loses?

This seems entirely credible to me. I have always expected that under Gordon Brown's leadership Labour would be more popular with its traditional voters, but somewhat less popular with the voters Blair called 'Middle England'. Tony Blair is the only Labour leader alive who ever successfully connected with that constituency.