Then again, Trump might win in a landslide. The polls so scattered and the circumstances so unusual that there's no way of judging what will happen until election night. And the waiting is the hardest part, as Tom Petty said (or was it Bon Jovi?).
Electoral College Results (1980-2012)
1980 - Reagan/Carter ( 489 / 49 ) ( 40,830,763 / 37,577,185 ) Winner: Reagan ;-)
1984 - Reagan/Mondale ( 525 / 13 ) ( 54,455,075 / 37,577,185 ) Winner: Reagan ;-)
1988 - Bush/Dukakis ( 426 / 111 ) ( 48,886,097 / 41,809,074 ) Winner: Bush
1992 - Clinton/Bush ( 370 / 168 ) ( 44,908,254 / 39,102,343 ) Winner: Clinton
1996 - Clinton/Dole ( 379 / 159 ) ( 45,590,703 / 37,816,307 ) Winner: Clinton
2000 - W Bush/Gore ( 271 / 266 ) ( 50,456,062 / 50,996,582 ) Winner: Dubya ;-)
2004 - W Bush/Kerry ( 286 / 251 ) ( 60,693,281 / 57,355,978 ) Winner: Dubya
2008 - Obama/McCain ( 365 / 173 ) ( 69,297,997 / 59,597,520 ) Winner: Obama
2012 - Obama/Romney ( 332 / 206 ) ( 65,444,241 / 60,587,978 ) Winner: Obama
Year - Winner /Loser (EC Votes - 270 = win) (popular vote) Outcome