'Smallpox' in Pakistan only chickenpox: World Health Organization confirms disease mislabeled

A reported outbreak of smallpox in the Swabi district of Pakistan has turned out to be nothing more than chickenpox, reports the World Health Organization.

The "epidemic" of deadly smallpox was first publicized in the Pakistan Dawn June 9. WorldNetDaily reported on the supposed outbreak after contacting officials from the World Health Organization and Centers for Disease Control.

"There has not been a case of smallpox anywhere in the world since the late 1970s, and all rumors since then have been proved to be false," Iain Simpson, a spokesman for WHO, told WorldNetDaily before the organization's probe was completed.

"There have been several recent rumors from Central Asia and the Middle East. In all cases, it has turned out to be the result of poor translation. In each recent case, the disease was actually chickenpox."

In WHO's latest correspondence, Communications Officer Dick Thompson wrote: "Investigators on the ground have confirmed this is an outbreak of chickenpox."

In recent months, the threat of a smallpox bioterror attack has raised new questions about who might have access to the virus and how it could be used as a deadly weapon against large population bases. The Centers for Disease Control last week wrapped up a series of public forums to discuss how the U.S. should use the smallpox vaccine "before and after a potential smallpox outbreak or bioterroist attack."

I'd like to take credit for predicting this!

See posting as follows:

Posted by bonesmccoy to TheLooseThread
On News/Activism Jun 11 6:40 PM #53 of 121

I think you're seriously over-reacting! The incubation time of small pox is around two weeks. So, these cases are unlikely to be smallpox. It's far more likely to be a simple case of Varicella Zoster, chickenpox!

Post Reply

How could you conclude anything from the incubation period? How would you know when the initial exposure of these people would have been?

At the time, I thought that the important clues (suggesting measles or chickenpox) were that there were no reports of any deaths and that all or most of the infected people were children. There also was clearly a potential language translation issue. There were previous instances of reported "smallpox" in that part of the world that turned out to be measles or chickenpox.

Well, you could conclude that this was not a smallpox outbreak based on the incubation period and probable lack of community-wide immunity. Since smallpox hasn't been seen in one generation, most of the planet is susceptible to the germ. On the other hand, chickenpox is routinely spread and there is lingering community-wide immunity in all people.

The initial reports suggested that the outbreak began 4-6 weeks prior. This meant that at least two cycles of the virus occured. The initial case infected one person, and that person infected someone else (otherwise, you wouldn't get a 4-6 week period. The period would have been 2 weeks instead).

Since the initial report gave this time interval and the fact that "children" were involved, it was logical to conclude that the physicians in Pakistan were making an incorrect diagnosis. Why?

Because if it were small pox, you would have had entire communities (both adult and children) getting the disease. The mathematical projections for spread of a virulent virus show that the initial contagious period is the worst. Because no adults were noted with the disease, it was likely that they were immune to the virus. Because Pakistan has not been immunizing people for 20 years (just like US), the adults are susceptible to smallpox. The continuing herd immunity to chickenpox would limit contagion to adults.

Thus, it was logical that the initial report was false. Thanks for letting me discuss the matter further!

Thanks for your thoughts. That's essentially the same reasoning I had followed, but I thought of it as being based on the sick people being children and on the lack of reported deaths. You're right in saying that the argument also depends on more than one incubation period having passed and on the general lack of smallpox immunity in the population.

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