Pakistan - We are at War! We have to fight it whether we like it or not

We are at war. India has finally imposed another war on Pakistan. Although its leaders claim that they only want a limited war in Kashmir to punish Pakistan for what they call “infiltrating terrorists” in to the occupied Kashmir, Pakistan has warned that if there was any aggression, the war will not remain confined to Kashmir or any other specific sector.

Like in 1965 and 1970 it is India which is imposing a war on Pakistan defying appeals for restraints from the World comity. Since Pakistan’s ruling junta has got the country stuck into deep internal and external security crises, Indian generals and politicians may have thought they may not find any better opportunity to undermine the security and integrity of Pakistan. So they are out on the front of their choice – Kashmir pounding tons of artillery explosives on Pakistan’s side of the Kashmir.

It is said that good generals don’t give any opportunity to their enemies to launch an attack and always start the war when they want to and where they want to (timings and front) fight. By this definition, our generals, who proved themselves as a total failure on the political front after September 11 terrorist actions in the United States and the referendum drama in the country on April 30, have also proved that they are equally worse in the military leadership. By no means is it a good time for war for us. But unfortunately the way the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir is being violated by the Indian artillery shows that our enemies know this fact better than our generals. Perhaps this is why they have chosen this time for an all out aggression. Our generals are still obsessed with a false ego and are not willing to mend fences to unite the nation behind the armed forces.

Until the Indian government made it clear to US emissary Christina Rocca that it would not defuse the military standoff with Pakistan on US pressure and that it was committed to carry out targeted strikes in Kashmir to destroy the bases of Kashmiri freedom fighters, our generals were not even ready to think of a possible war with India. They had so deep faith in the US protection that they never thought about any real threat of war. For them the guarantee to peace and perpetuation of their dictatorship was the unconditional obedience of the US which they are continuing to do without learning any lessons.

When Rocca told a different story and the Washington delayed Richard Armitage because of the rigid attitude of New Delhi, the generals perhaps realized for the first time that now they would have to fight for which they were never prepared mentally or militarily. In one of our articles recently we shook the ruling junta to realize the military threat and even after that the generals said stubbornly that there are no chances of war.

They believed that the US would defuse the tension as it did in December 2001 after the terrorist attack on the Indian Parliament and the war would be averted. But what they did not take into account was that rapid developments have changed the scenario during the last five months and now the US may not be so interested in averting a war rather it may have given a tacit approval to India to “teach a lesson” to Pakistan.

In December 2001 and in 1998-1999 the US and India knew that Pakistan was ready to deploy nuclear weapons and if the war was imposed on Pakistan, Pakistan may not hesitate to use the nuclear deterrent.

But, now the US has especially taken care of the Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. Many people doubt that General Musharraf has allowed access to the US forces in Pakistan to the nuclear arsenal and these doubts are further strengthened by his statement to the international media a couple of months ago in which he said that “Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are in safe hands.” I wish it is wrong and incorrect.

Even if General Musharraf has not given away Pakistan’s nuclear programme, it is very difficult if not impossible to deploy the nukes when the US forces have established special monitoring centres in Pakistan to have maximum information about Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities. According to some reports US brought equipment worth $5 billion to Pakistan only to monitor Pakistan’s nuclear programme. CIA’s spy planes that keep flying on more than half of the country day and night may not been ignoring the “targets” with in Pakistan.

This situation indicates that Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent has unfortunately been neutralized by the US, the godfather of our ruling junta. When there is no danger of nuclear fallout, why should the US bother to defuse the tension? Why should not it allow India to go ahead and “teach a lesson” to Pakistan, Pakistan’s generals, Pakistan’s people who favour the Jihad and Pakistan’s Jihadis who are considered a threat to US and its new ally in the region – India?

India is much closer to US in all respects – India has good relations with Israel that is a weakness of policy makers in US. India is as big an enemy of Muslim movements as is the US. India has five times bigger economy than Pakistan that can be turned into a market of US consumer good manufacturers. India can be used to contain the influence of China, Pakistan can’t do it. So why should US support Pakistan against India? Pakistan has lost frontline status in US war with Afghanistan, as now the Afghanistan itself has become a frontline state for US’ future military adventures in the region.

Unfortunately our military leadership is so ambitious in perpetuating its illegal and unconstitutional rule in Pakistan that it overlooked all these factors and committed strategic blunders by becoming a pawn in the US war in Afghanistan and by handing over military bases to US without considering the aftermath of these strategic decisions.

After all these mistakes, committed intentionally or unintentionally, the generals claim that “Pakistan is a castle of Islam.” True. Pakistan is a castle of Islam but the castle is a good defence only if the enemy is kept outside the castle. If the guards of the castle open the doors for the enemy or friends of the enemy, the castle may become an easy target for the enemy.

Our generals have put the nation between a ditch and the mountain. If at one hand the US is pushing the generals for a military operation in tribal areas, at the other hand we are rendered helpless in using our legitimize deterrent for our defence. The country that used two nuclear devices to kill hundreds and thousands of civilians in the World War –II to win a war is now making it a sin to think about the deployment of nukes.

Now the question is that what our generals are going to do to tackle this situation? Nothing. They are sitting besides the telephone waiting for a call from Washington that the India has agreed to defuse the standoff. But this call may never come like the 6th fleet of the US Navy never came to save Pakistan from a humiliating defeat in East Pakistan.

Though the ruling generals have disappointed the nation, the nation still has hopes from the ranks of the armed forces that they would put up a solid defence for the homeland and in this effort they will find every individual of the nation besides them. Pakistan belongs to the people of Pakistan and any attack on Pakistan means a war with the people of Pakistan and the people of the country would not be hesitant to render any sacrifices to defend Pakistan.

Jihad in Kashmir is the struggle for the universally accepted rights of the people of Kashmir and the US and India cannot force the people of Kashmir to abandon their struggle for freedom. The only way for durable peace in the region is to recognize the rights of the people of Kashmir and let them decide their future. Kashmir is an unfinished agenda of the partition of India and unless it is resolved, the people of Pakistan are bound to extend every possible support, moral, political and material, to their brethren in Kashmir. Neither General Musharraf nor anybody else has the right to abandon Kashmir against the desires of the people of Kashmir.

The Pakistanis brought this on themselves by supporting terrorism from their soil. If Mexico were supporting Arizona Separatists from its soil we would invade as well. It’s a Muslim thing against anyone that is not like them. The Muslim Pakistanis don’t like Indians because they are "infidels": Non-believers in Islam. Just like Christians, Jews, Buddhists and yes...even atheists.

If Pakistan's military situation is as bad as Majid Qazi says, perhaps Pakistan will be forced to allow the destruction of the terrorist bases by India and let it go at that, thereby averting all-out war. You have to wonder if Pakistan's nukes are already locked out of the war. At one point they were considering storing them in China, although what good that would do who knows.

Well, there were reports saying all their nukes were Chinese anyway, shipped to Pakistan after India tested its own nukes.

India will probably attack the camps in Kashmir. And the condition of Pakistan's military; not as bad as these guys say, is my guess.

Despite all the rattling by Indian leaders, it is unlikely that this will lead up to war. India has a lot to lose , Pakistan has nothing to lose. That is the assymetry which will prevent India from launching an all out war. Indian leadership knows a war will put its economic program by decades and stupidity has been least of their traits in the past. Indian Artillery pulverizing Pakistani positions while being within the LOC is a likely scenario. The new war will be to blead Pakistan rather than destroy it. India has maintained good ralationship with muslim nations in the past. Its not a battle against Islam - its a battle against the military dictatorship of Pakistan. Democracies have never waged war against other democracies and the best hope for Pakistan is to have civillian government with military playing a secondary and subordinate role to civilian authority like it is in matured democracies like India.

Hardline view.

What I find interesting is the title. Apparently Majid Qazi believes there is enough dissention that he has to argue the point. Maybe Pakistan is not the monolithic block of Islamic jihadists that we've been led to believe.

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