The conventional wisdom is that Pennsylvania is Trump's surest way to 270. Trump is trailing in the Pennsylvania RCP average by 7.3 points, so quite a few pundits are confidently writing Trump off as a sure loser. The problem with this confidence, however, is that Pennsylvania is not Trump's surest bet. In fact, the Midwest plus Florida and possibly New Hampshire, provides a clearer and currently quite realistic path to 269, the actual number that he needs. Trump is only trailing by an average of 2.5 points in these states, with the largest lead being four points, but the rest...