Free Republic

The Washington Times offered an article today about improving GOP prospects that, to me anyway, seemed long on conclusions and short on evidence. Their thesis: There has been a palpable shift in the mood in Washington in recent weeks. No longer are insiders in both parties sharing predictions of a Democratic rout of Republicans. Some on both sides had expected an election debacle for the Republicans, driven by the Iraq war, high gas prices and the perception that a Republican-led Washington can neither shoot nor spend straight.Now those perceptions have changed. First off, let me just note the strategic...

I noted with interest the recent publication of a Research 2000 poll from Indiana's 2nd Congressional District. It showed Democratic challenger Joe Donnelly with an impressive 8% lead over 2-term representative Chris Chocola. Even more worrisome for Chocola is that Donnelly has hit 50%. What is more, several previous polls have given Donnelly a lead outside the margin of error.The Indiana 02 race serves as an interesting contrast to what has been happening in many districts around the nation. Races that, perhaps in the Spring, seemed to be vulnerable for the Republicans are now appearing to be less vulnerable....

There are two main reasons why pundits are so bullish about a Democratic capture of the House of Representatives. The first is the generic ballot. The second is the high voter negatives on "right track/wrong track" questions. These two bits of evidence underlie the "tidal wave" metaphor we see everywhere, which implies that voters are going to act nationally this year.I dealt with the first issue in my last column. If you correct for the systemic pro-Democratic skew inherent to the generic ballot, you will see that - as of today - it is essentially predicting a draw. And, much...

In yesterday's column, I looked at the overall fundraising picture for the two parties' national committees. I argued that, contrary to the conventional wisdom, the Democratic Party's fundraising receipts are not being enhanced by a positive political environment. Rather, DCCC and DSCC receipts are being enhanced at the expense of the DNC, whose chair, Howard Dean, has made some unconventional spending decisions.In today's column, I would like to explore how candidates for office are performing in their fundraising tasks - once again making use of FEC data. This can give us a sense of the size of the playing field...

For the second time in three months, stories are once again circulating about the feud between Democratic National Committee (DNC) chairman Howard Dean and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) chairman Rahm Emanuel. Last week, the Chicago Tribune's Jeff Zeleny reported, More than a month after a strategy meeting between Emanuel and Dean ended in an explosive dispute, the two men have not spoken directly. And Emanuel said he is beginning to doubt whether the party's nuts-and-bolts operation will be ready to compete with Republicans in key districts. (snip)At the party's new headquarters, the friction is so palpable that during a...

In recent weeks, the talk among pundits about the inevitability of Democratic triumph has simmered down. For some reason - one that I have not yet ascertained - Bush in the high-30s induces an entirely different storyline than Bush in the mid-30s. While the logic does not make sense, the result is nonetheless a move in the right direction. We seem to have returned to the much more sensible conversation that we were having in March: for the Democrats to win the House, they will actually have to do something.What do they have to do? This is the $2.3 trillion...

The last two weeks have brought a shift in the perception of the parties' electoral prospects. The President has enjoyed some good press in the last few news cycles, which seems to have had a positive effect on his job approval rating. The Democrats, meanwhile, are looking quite divided. The spectacle of Hillary Clinton and John Kerry, their best-known representatives, taking opposite stands on the issue of the day from the same podium was a stark indication of the division within the party. This has given the press pause in their rush to prejudge the November election. Many pundits have...

The results from California's 50th district are now in - and Republican Brian Bilbray has defeated Democrat Francine Busby in the contest to complete the tenure of Duke Cunningham. This was Busby's third try at seizing the seat. She is now 0-for-3. The two will face off again in November, but it seems highly likely that the GOP will hold the seat.Pundits and partisans across the land have examined the returns to divine some kind of meaning from them. What did the voters tell us? Many answers have been offered - not all of them valid. Many people have seen...

Thomas Riehle and Lance Tarrance offered a thought-provoking piece last week discussing the generic congressional ballot, i.e. the question in media polls that asks which party respondents will prefer in the congressional election.They write: The new Cook Political Report/RT Strategies national survey...shows Democrats leading Republicans by 12 points among registered voters...the Democratic advantage in these generic ballot tests is into double digits, beyond the reach of the normal overstatement of Democratic prospects that critics correctly cite as an historic fact when looking at either the partisan Congressional control question or the generic ballot test. It is true that critics (such...

 Rolling Stone has a splashy cover story that asks if George W. Bush is the worst president in American history.Smart rock fans, of course, ignore Rolling Stone. A rock magazine that once wrote that Exile on Main Street shows the Stones "at their most dense and impenetrable" and taking "a minimum of chances"; and that once characterized Who's Next as "dangerously close to sterile," is a magazine that is not to be taken seriously on the good, the right, or the true of rock music, let alone politics. When they opine about the latter, I usually laugh and move on.This...

Several astute readers have written to offer an objection to the thesis I presented in yesterday's column. Namely, they argue that we might expect a Democratic capture of the House, but not the Senate, because the Republicans have a numerical advantage in this year's Senate contests.Specifically, with a Democratic caucus numbering 45, the party "should" have to defend 15. However, they must defend 18. The GOP "should" have to defend 18.33 seats this year, but only have to defend 15. The reason for this is that each Senate seat falls into a class that determines when it comes up for...

The recent election talk from our pundit class has been about the chances of a Democratic takeover of the House. Many expect this. I am open to this possibility; however, as I have written in the past, I think the data favors a Republican retention. I am also open to, and would be interested to read, a thorough argument that supports a Democratic takeover. Many pundits draw this conclusion, but I have yet to read the support necessary for it. In other words, my real objection is not so much to the conclusions of pundits, but to how they have...

Richard Morin, The Washington Post's polling director, had an interesting piece in yesterday's edition. Morin argues that, in states Bush carried in 2004, his job approval numbers have slid so much that we can no longer really think of many of them as "red".Writes Morin, "States that were once reliably red are turning pink. Some are no longer red but a sort of powder blue. In fact, a solid majority of residents in states that President Bush carried in 2004 now disapprove of the job he is doing as president. Views of the GOP have also soured in those Republican...

Last night Democratic candidate Francine Busby failed to reach the 50% + 1 mark in her quest to take the seat formerly held by Republican Duke Cunningham. She finished in the low- to mid-40's.Judging by the early reports on the election, the media is going to spin this as a good development for the Democrats in their quest to take the House. I could not disagree more.The election will go to a June runoff, but this seems to me to have been the Democrats' only real chance at this seat. GOP candidates pulled in a majority of the vote...

Many conservatives thought last month's selection of John Boehner as House Majority Leader was a sign that the Republican caucus is prepared to change its spending habits. Though most in the conservative crowd preferred John Shadegg, Boehner's promise to hold the line on "earmarks" satisfied many conservatives that the vote was a step in the right direction. However, restraining discretionary spending has been, since the election of Reagan, a "one step forward, two steps back" sort of progress for the GOP. Despite their allegiance to the principle of limited government, Republicans members have never changed how Congress spends money.Why have...

The conventional wisdom has obviously congealed around the idea that the Republican Party is headed for trouble this November. Last week alone, I encountered nearly two dozen opinion pieces making the same argument. While I agree that the Republicans will lose seats in the House – probably about nine – I was also amazed at the reasons upon which so many professional pundits based their predictions. Many columnists seem downright naïve when it comes to congressional elections, content to repeat commonplace arguments without first checking if the facts fit the theories. In instance after instance, they do not. So many...

With the announcement of Bill Thomas’s retirement, many have begun to take closer notice of the number of open seats in 2006 – and how they seem to favor the Democrats. Most political observers have recognized that the number of open seats is a critical factor in the partisan composition of the House, and that this year the Republicans must defend more than the Democrats. However, few have correctly surmised that the Democrats enjoy little-to-no real advantage because of open seats.All political scientists agree that open seats are a key method of party changes in the House of Representatives. Only...

Sometimes, I think this new 24-hour news cycle creates more problems than it solves. Case in point: last week’s FOX News poll on the 2008 presidential elections. Not content to inquire about any of the 504 elections we will have in 9 months, FOX preferred to ask about the one in 33 months. They even saw fit to ask what people thought about Oprah or Arnold as president. I was prepared to let this inane poll slide – to silently wonder how FOX could waste so much airtime pondering the electoral chances of a man constitutionally barred from the...

Two days ago, I began to discuss what I believe to be the best way to predict congressional elections. Developed first by Edward Tufte and later refined by Gary Jacobson, the “Tufte/Jacobson theory” is starting point I have chosen. It argues that we can predict the outcome of a congressional election based upon three factors: exposure, presidential job approval and changes in real disposable income per capita (RDI/cap). It is time to supply the details, supplement the theory with some extra concerns, and make a prediction for 2006.Exposure is the extent to which the party of the President is above...

Most political commentators remain ambivalent about the chances of a Democratic capture of the House. Most are willing to say that they cannot capture the Senate – especially now that Lott has decided to return. It would require them to run the tables on every vulnerable and “vulnerable” incumbent Republican out there: Santorum, Dewine, Burns, Chafee, Talent. This would be at a time when incumbents are, historically speaking, as invulnerable as they have ever been, and Republicans are as invulnerable as they have been since Hoover. Most think this is impossible.But what about the House? To take the House, the...