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CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten warned on Monday that Vice President Kamala Harris’ current national lead over former President Donald Trump is too slim to signal a likely victory in the November election due to the electoral college. Harris’ national lead over Trump grew by just a single point following their debate last week, despite a majority of viewers believing she won, according to ABC News/Ipsos data released on Sunday. Enten, on “CNN News Central,” noted Harris’ 2.5-point lead in his polling aggregate gives her roughly a 50% chance of winning. “Okay, so basically, you note that 2.5-point lead...

Tuesday, during a segment on CNN, network data analyst Harry Enten downplayed the polling enthusiasm for Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris. According to Enten, if the margin of error from 2016 and 2020 is factored in for battleground states, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump still has an advantage. “Yes, right, exactly. I mean the thing that – we put out those poll numbers yesterday,” he said. “You know, The New York Times, Sienna College, we covered them. I showed you the Ipsos polling. All of which that showed Kamala Harris with clear momentum, enthusiasm potentially on her side. But I...

CNN data reporter Harry Enten said Wednesday on CNN’s “News Central” that polling shows President Joe Biden’s base wanted him to get out of the race more than former President George H.W. Bush’s base in 1992, who lost that race. Host Kate Bolduan said, “So growing number of voters want President Biden to drop out of the race after his poor showing at last week’s debate. This is coming from new numbers out this morning in a CBS News poll. How does this all add to the overall picture of what Biden is up against at this moment and can...

CNN senior political data reporter Harry Enten said Monday on “News Central” that former President Donald Trump has historic strength with black voters. Host John Berman asked, “Where does the race stand among African-American voters right now?” Enten said, “I keep looking for this to change, to go back to a historical norm and it’s, simply put, has not yet. In 2020, Joe Biden was getting 86% of the African-American vote. Look at where it is now. It’s 70%, that’s a 16-point drop, John. And more than that, it’s not just that Joe Biden is losing ground, it’s that Donald...

1:33 CNN poll analyst Harry Enten said Wednesday on “News Central” that polling shows most voters don’t care about the New York business records case against former President Donald Trump. Enten said, “It feels like only yesterday to me, John, that it began, but apparently, it is 44 days. You crack the numbers, you’ve run the numbers. All right, let’s take a look here. Think Trump did something illegal in the New York hush money case. I’ve been interested in whether or not these numbers will change at all during the course of this trial?” He added, “Simply put, they...

On Thursday’s broadcast of CNN’s “OutFront,” CNN Senior Political Data Reporter Harry Enten said that inflation and population-adjusted disposable personal income has declined over the past quarter and since the first year of the Biden administration and “there is this disconnect. But I don’t think there’s this disconnect between Americans and what’s actually going on. I think there might be this disconnect between what President Biden thinks is going on and what is actually going on.” Host Erin Burnett began the segment by saying that President Biden admitted that “Americans are not feeling the positive effects of an economy that...

Washington (CNN)First things first: The theme song of the week is the theme from The Larry Sanders Show. Poll of the week: A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds that President Donald Trump's approval rating among voters nationwide is 45%. His disapproval rating is 52%. This makes for a net approval (approval - disapproval) of -7 points. The average poll has Trump's net approval among voters at -9 points. What's the point: Trump's 2020 strategy seemed to be in full swing this past week. He looks to be doubling down on a campaign of hardline immigration policies and racial...

The political future of President Donald Trump and the Republican Party over the next two years really comes down to one question: Do traditional measures of popularity mean anything when it comes to Trump? If they do, the Republican Party and Trump could be in major trouble. Usually, we wouldn't even think to ask whether a president with around a 40% approval rating would end up hurting his political party. Yet Trump did something that was seemingly impossible in 2016: He won the presidency, despite being the most unpopular candidate since at least 1952 and with Americans seeming to like...

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio’s campaign, which officially kicks off Monday, has so far attracted paltry support from Republican voters, according to polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, as well as nationally. He’s down near Chris Christie! Yet, when we talk about him in the FiveThirtyEight office, we usually put Rubio in the top tier, in front of everyone except Jeb Bush and Scott Walker, the two candidates at the top of the polls. Why? Rubio is both electable and conservative, and in optimal proportions. He’s in a position to satisfy the GOP establishment, tea party-aligned voters and social conservatives. In...