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Posts by spetznaz

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  • Ukraine Strikes Yet Another Ship in Russia's Black Sea Fleet [4th this week]

    03/26/2024 6:32:07 AM PDT · 3 of 26
    spetznaz to canuck_conservative

    For a country without a navy it is quite amazing how successful Ukraine has been in destroying the Russian BS fleet. Amazing.

  • MSNBC Guest Flips Out after Trump’s Court Win: ‘I Don’t Even Know What to Do’

    03/26/2024 6:05:44 AM PDT · 6 of 42
    spetznaz to Sam77

    I really hope we get the same monsoon of Lib tears this November that we experienced in 2016.

  • A shipping container struck a bridge support in Baltimore, Maryland, causing its collapse into the harbor. Multiple vehicles and 20 people fell in.

    03/26/2024 4:16:36 AM PDT · 15 of 83
    spetznaz to davikkm

    Maybe they should send that ship to attack the Kerch bridge in Crimea …

  • Ukraine says it sank Russian large landing warship in Black Sea

    02/14/2024 3:59:05 AM PST · 8 of 77
    spetznaz to Chad C. Mulligan

    Drones have been an absolute game changer. The cost of one/more drones versus the cost of a ship is mind boggling.

  • Ukraine says it sank Russian large landing warship in Black Sea

    02/14/2024 3:57:40 AM PST · 7 of 77
    spetznaz to marcusmaximus

    If the USAF is the world’s largest distributor of MiG parts, then Ukraine is the world’s largest manufacturer of Russian submarines …

  • Russia uses Zircon hypersonic missile in Ukraine for first time, researchers say

    02/14/2024 3:22:32 AM PST · 42 of 50
    spetznaz to Justa

    Fully agree. All ICBMs/SLBMs are hypersonic.

  • Russia uses Zircon hypersonic missile in Ukraine for first time, researchers say

    02/14/2024 3:21:48 AM PST · 41 of 50
    spetznaz to ifinnegan

    He is insane. Everyone who plans a game of brinksmanship is insane. To make it credible one has to be partially or fully mad.

    As for your other statement:

    1. You are correct - Russians would not have their country destroyed with nuclear fire.
    3. However, the same applies to the West. This is exactly why I was mentioning that no Western leader will play a game of chance with their own citizens. That’s the only good thing about nuclear weapons - it makes all sides take a pause and think a bit.
    3. Why do 1 and 2 exist?
    Step a: Russia knows it cannot defeat NATO conventionally, thus its nuclear doctrine allows for use of tactical weapons when they are about to be massively outrun by a superior conventional force.
    Step b: NATO knows they can defeat Russia conventionally, and thus have to calculate what that would mean in terms of escalation. NATO knows that if Russia used tactical nuclear weapons, they would have to respond with their own similar weapons.
    Step c: Russia knows that the NATO tactical response would most likely escalate into the use of strategic weapons.
    Step d: Ditto for NATO.
    Step e: Neither NATO nor Russia wants to risk such outcomes, and thus everything is done in a moderated manner (eg, Germany going from only delivering helmets to now giving tanks, artillery systems and anti-air missiles - everything has been very paced, much to Ukraine’s chagrin …!!!!)

    What does all of the above mean?

    - Both NATO and Russia will not escalate.
    - In the same way Putin/Russians will not risk nuclear war with NATO because of Ukraine, in the same way no French President or Italian Prime Minister or Western whatever will risk nuclear war with Russia over Ukraine. No matter what fans of either side think, that will not happen.
    - Finally, it will result in what I said. An armistice, with the borders being frozen more or less where the frontlines currently are. Russia has enough weapons to make life miserable for Ukraine, but not to take over the country. Ukraine can score wins against Russia (eg a ship here, a plane there), but that will not take Russia back to the February borders (be it Feb 2022 or Feb 2014).

    An armistice will happen by the end of this year. I’d bet on it. Definitely if President Trump wins/ Republicans keep at least one of the houses of Congress.

    Should Biden seem to be on the way to a triumphant end, then maybe the armistice will happen in mid/late 2025.

    But an armistice will happen. There will be no winner to that war. Ukraine is afraid for political reasons to mobilize the 500,000+ people it needs; and Russia is still playing that ‘special operations nonsense’ they’ve been squawking about for two years.

    And NATO will not get more involved than they are now. I can only imagine how the German Chancellor, for example, would explain to his citizens (who are already really angry at the economy, considering Germany always needed cheap energy to maintain the industrial edge they enjoyed for decades) that the German military will be fighting Russia. Will never happen.

    But, let’s see. I could be wrong. :)

  • Ukraine destroys Another Russian Warship, Caesar Kunikov, Near Crimea

    02/14/2024 3:07:00 AM PST · 3 of 62
    spetznaz to janetjanet998

    It appears that Ukraine is really good at converting Russian warships into submarines. Unfortunately for Russia, those submarines never seem to ever surface once they dive. Not sure if that’s a big or a feature.

  • Russia uses Zircon hypersonic missile in Ukraine for first time, researchers say

    02/14/2024 1:25:16 AM PST · 38 of 50
    spetznaz to Chode; MeganC; GBA; ifinnegan; Extremely Extreme Extremist; Kazan; McGruff; hardspunned; EEGator; ..

    My view …it’s a message. The Zircon is nuclear capable, and the message is that Russia has the ability to launch a tactical nuclear attack on Kyiv that the Ukrainians would not be able to stop.

    Consequently, it wouldn’t matter if it hit an apartment building or hit the town square - the result would be the same.

    There is a lot of ‘conversation’ going on between Russia, Ukraine, and NATO. This was just another message between the three (more like, between Russia and NATO).

    I hoped that this war would be a quick one - and that Ukraine’s early successes would result in Russia opting to quickly save face and return to the borders as at 24 February 2022). That is now out of question, with too much lost for both Ukraine and Russia for a sensible outcome to be agreed upon. If Ukraine gave up, it would be over for Zelenskyy. If Russia gave up, the same for Putin.

    And if the West gets directly involved (as in, directly not just sending weapons), then things get tough for everyone. Why? Because Russia has no chance against NATO in a conventional war, and in such an outcome, Russia’s nuclear doctrine allows for the use of thermonuclear weapons.

    Now, there are some who say (1) that Russia’s nukes ‘don’t work’ and/or (2) Russia would never use its nuclear weapons, assuming they work, because they would be destroyed themselves.

    The thing though is this - there is no Western leader, not even Biden, who would take such a gamble and put their own citizens on the line in such a bet (and, similarly, no Western leader would ever risk sacrificing their own citizens for the sake of Ukrainians). Not even Biden would sacrifice America’s national interests for the sake of Ukrainian lives, even though the current happenings at the border do create some concerns. Otherwise the border issue, not even Biden would risk a thermonuclear conflagration for the benefit of Ukraine. Definitely not the other Western presidents/prime ministers would do this.

    This explains why, for example, when a Russian missile flew over Polish airspace, all that happened was a stern warning from Poland and an increase in Polish AF F-16C flights. Both Russia and NATO leadership do not want a direct engagement between themselves because (a) Russia would lose and (b) Russia would go nuclear. It really is that simple,

    And that, in my opinion, is why they fired an ‘unstoppable’ weapon at ‘an apartment.’ (Again, I am assuming that the statement it only hit an apartment is true and not propaganda - all sides have been pumping a lot of tripe). It is to send a message - that there is a point where Russia could simply use a tactical strike, which would be a major escalation.

    Which takes me back to my initial hope that it would have been a quick war with Ukraine bloodying the nose of Russia and making them go back to their 24 February 2022 position (ie, with Russia in Crimea but outside the rest of Ukraine). That will not be the case!

    Options going forward, in my view:
    1. Continued stalemate that results in a long-war where both countries keep paying the butcher’s bill in a drawn out fashion. Ukraine would be waiting for a counter offensive next year (2025, assuming Biden wins reelection and the Dems win both houses of Congress and can thus authorize military aid with limited resistance), and Russia would be waiting to see if Western assistance dries up and they can move in with minimal resistance (due to lack of Ukrainian weapons and, especially, soldiers).

    2. Continued stalemate that results in some sort of armistice similar to what happened with the two Koreas, resulting in a permanently frozen war. This is actually the most likely option, and it would come with some sort of carrots for Ukraine (eg, joining the EU) but not everything they want (not being part of NATO, but maybe with some sort of bi/tri-lateral security guarantees), and Russia keeping the territories on the other side of the line (and thus giving Putin his ‘win’). By far the most likely situation and the one I would bet money on. I doubt that even the most rabid pro-Ukrainian supporters still believe Ukraine can achieve a total win; and even the most fervent Putin-fanatic stopped believing Russia could take Kyiv in under a week TWO years ago. The outcome will be some sort of armistice with Ukraine joining the EU but not NATO.

    3. Ukraine achieves an outright win, and pushes Russia back to either (a) the 24 Feb 2022 borders or even, as some commentators were claiming last year, to (b) the 20 February 2014 borders (prior to Russia moving into Crimea). This, in my view, is impossible! Russia will never let Crimea go for example. They will nuke Kyiv before that happens using tactical weapons.

    4. Russia wins and conquers all of Ukraine. Not sure if this was their plan at all, but if it is/was, it is also an impossible task. Russia simply does not have the ability to hold such ground (let alone capture it in the first place), and even if a dark miracle happened and they captured it (impossible), it would result in an insurgency nightmare that would make Fallujah seem like Sunday brunch).

    5. NATO gets involved directly. I would hope this is impossible, as it opens up certain permutations that can go wrong quick. I doubt any Western leader would face their nation and tell them they are going to war on behalf of Ukraine, but there are still certain situations that can result in that. For example, scenario A: Ukraine is losing and some commander decides to bomb the nuclear power plant and blame Russia, with radiation flowing into neighboring countries. Or, scenario B: Russia is losing and they attack Ukrainian F-16s based in a NATO country. Not likely, and under normal conditions ‘impossible,’ but unfortunately there are certain scenarios where a desperate Ukraine or Russia can trigger the involvement of NATO.

  • President Biden Urged to Seize Texas National Guard - Joe Manchin Calls for National Emergency

    01/24/2024 9:15:48 PM PST · 31 of 255
    spetznaz to Responsibility2nd

    Perfect.

  • Wheel of a Delta Boeing 757 comes off while it was preparing to take off

    01/24/2024 5:51:16 AM PST · 122 of 127
    spetznaz to SharpRightTurn; SnuffaBolshevik

    Maybe it is not sabotage, and maybe it’s not affirmative action. Both of those are possible, but it is more likely that Boeing is now being led by accountants and not engineers, and a renewed focus on cost cutting has resulted a shift from top-notch quality control with unfortunate consequences.

    It is crazy that more and more American companies are making inane DEI choices, and it’s easy to place blame on such choices for wings falling off and the milk boiling over, but proper attribution analysis would show that many of the issues started when Boeing shifted to an ‘enhanced profitability’ approach years back.Unlike Airbus, which is (literally) led by an engineer, when you have ‘financial types’ leading an airline they will always try and save costs.

    That can come with dire consequences.

    But it’s easier to claim it’s affirmative action (which, as a black man who has made it in life without the need of such useless crutches, I deeply detest). Makes everyone concur, all the blame is placed there, and then another Boeing plane loses a wheel or a door or its ability to maintain level flight (!!!) and the song and dance goes on.

    When it is all about VERY poor leadership at Boeing.

  • Putin's Decree Triggers Ominous Alaska Calls

    01/23/2024 8:54:01 AM PST · 40 of 74
    spetznaz to Timber Rattler

    How can Russia ever hope to challenge the US when it cannot even handle Ukraine?

    That’s the one thing I have never understood with those claiming Russia is this big bad dread. They are big (in geography) and bad (in most things - their food, their military, a lot of things), but how can they be the big bad dread if they cannot even defeat Ukraine?

    Poland alone would be sufficient.

    I wish someone could explain how Russia can be both pathetic yet to be feared at the same time.

  • Ukraine DEMANDS women join the war and orders 50,000 ladies uniforms in last ditch effort | Redacted

    01/22/2024 5:55:13 AM PST · 29 of 51
    spetznaz to canuck_conservative

    Good point.

    Whether one likes or hates Zelenskyy, the point still remains that Ukraine was attacked by an external party. Even if someone tries to come up with ‘reasons why,’ it still doesn’t take away from the point that Ukraine was attacked by an external party.

    Sometimes people just want to fight back. Maybe they are silly, maybe they are misguided, maybe they are patriotic - but sometimes people stand in the gap against a larger force and say ‘come take it.’

    It often doesn’t end the way movies like to show it, with the silly/misguided/heroic fighters winning.

    But sometimes people just have to fight for their homeland.

    whether or not their leaders are ‘good’ or ‘bad.’

  • Vivek Ramaswamy drops out of Republican presidential race

    01/15/2024 11:05:11 PM PST · 82 of 106
    spetznaz to stars & stripes forever

    Too swampy to be part of the Trump admin? That is hilarious.

    I like President Trump and hope he gets elected this year, but let’s be serious. His administration was filled with traitors and had more swamp slime than the Everglades during summer.

    His last administration had Mike Pence as VP, Nikki Haley as ambassador, Chris Christie as head of the transition team, Omarossa as advisor, and a bunch of other interesting names. Many of these people stabbed Trump in the back.

    Vivek would be an improvement over any of them!

  • 2 Navy SEALs missing off Somalia coast were on a nighttime boarding mission: US officials

    01/14/2024 5:50:33 AM PST · 2 of 21
    spetznaz to devane617

    Very sad. Brave men.

  • Ukraine Has a Path to Victory?

    01/10/2024 12:33:03 PM PST · 41 of 75
    spetznaz to desertsolitaire

    Wouldn’t be use of biological WMDs by Ukraine within Russia fully justify the use of nuclear WMDs by Russia on Ukraine? I think it would be a flash of brilliance by Ukraine, similar to bombing the Kerch bridge or sinking the Moskva, but resulting in a counterattack that would (simply put) end Ukraine.

    With that said, unless something drastically improves, I can see Ukraine having to pull a Hail Mary move to try and engage real help. I think an attack on the nuclear power plant or in a NATO country (by Russia, Ukraine, or some unnamed third actor) would do the job. Only the full involvement on NATO will stop Putin. Sending MBTs and Vipers will not do it.

  • Canadian Carry Shotguns – Short Barrels are Legal

    01/09/2024 5:58:35 AM PST · 2 of 8
    spetznaz to marktwain

    Unfortunately, given time Canada’s gun laws will become like those in the UK and Australia. Liberals always opt for blanket restrictions whenever they come to a hard bend. At first I used to think it’s because they want to control things, but I later realized that it was also partially because they are lazy. Why lazy? Because when a shooting happens, it is easier to confiscate firearms from law abiding citizens than it is to (1) tackle the real issues that led to that shooting and/or (2) go after criminals. It is lazy because they know that (most) law abiding citizens will abide to the new regulations, and thus the evening news can show thousands of firearms being destroyed.

    Unfortunately, criminals do not adhere to such edicts for one simple reason - they are NOT law abiding citizens. That’s why we call them criminals.

    Liberals don’t understand that, they need to control people, and they are too lazy to tackle the real problems.

  • Update from Ukraine | Ruzzia is losing the Critical equipment in Avdiivka | Ukraine wins the fight

    01/04/2024 8:54:09 AM PST · 60 of 138
    spetznaz to Chad C. Mulligan; UMCRevMom@aol.com

    That is a matter of opinion, Chad. Even if they are childish memes, it is still quite strange for one person to make over two dozen own-posts on her thread. Allowed, yes, but definitely strange.

    Even if the six that were not hers may/may not be childish memes, hers do come across as gross propaganda.

    FR is about truth.

    Or, at least it used to be. There was a time when FR had solid thinkers posting material that made sense and made people think. That was a long time ago though.

    Nowadays, it is either:

    1. FReepers supporting Russia, which is very strange considering the GOP was always the party that stood strongest against the Reds. Putin is not a good guy, and Russia has committed war crimes. It is one thing for someone to say they’re not interested in the Ukraine war, it is another thing to support Russia!

    2. People posting his Ukraine can do no wrong, how it is shooting down ‘95% of missiles’, videos from Denys that always show how Ukraine is ‘always’ winning, how ‘RuZZian orcs’ or whatever childish name they’re calling them are ‘always’ losing, etc etc. The MSM and propaganda channels like Denys’ (which is what it is - a propaganda channel) even show a Ukrainian retreat as ‘strategic’ and a Russian advance as a ‘small and non-important.’

    Ironically, it is such talk that has partially cost Ukraine a lot! How? Because for months people were hearing how Ukraine was ‘always winning,’ and thus they expected a miracle from the so-called Summer Offensive; and when it did not exactly work out as planned, hearts and minds began to shift. A more realistic approach - such as, Ukraine is fighting against barbaric invaders who are occupying sovereign Ukrainian land and benefit from 10x the population and economy, and thus the West needs to support Ukraine in its David vs Goliath struggle - may have worked better than the MSM cheerleading squad we saw for two years. Which is a problem because Russia has a vote in the war, they are almost as committed as the Ukrainians, and in a war of time and/or escalation, for Ukraine to win it needs Western support. And for two years the MSM has been telling people how Ukraine is valiantly winning, and ignoring the fact that in every single war that Russia won, the first two or so years Russia suffered terrible losses before they turned the tide!

    Example: the Winter War between Finland and the USSR, where the Soviets lost a lot before they won.

    Ukraine needs all the help it can get, and propaganda channels do not help. It’s not about making people feel warm fuzzy feelings, but helping a country gain victory.

  • Update from Ukraine | Ruzzia is losing the Critical equipment in Avdiivka | Ukraine wins the fight

    01/04/2024 2:28:57 AM PST · 32 of 138
    spetznaz to UMCRevMom@aol.com

    32 posts in this thread, and all but 6 are yours.

  • Zelensky Vows Russia Will Feel ‘Wrath’ of Ukraine With Arrival of Western F-16 Fighter Jets in New Year

    01/01/2024 11:22:48 AM PST · 30 of 55
    spetznaz to lurk; ChicagoConservative27; Sacajaweau

    What would be interesting is if:

    1. If the pilots and maintenance crew are NATO pilots and maintenance crew (including ‘recently retired pilots’, which was an option offered by the former head of the company formerly known as Blackwater).

    2. Whether the F-16s are based in NATO territory, as in, they take off and land from airports outside Ukraine. This would be an interesting one since basing the F-16s outside Ukraine would make them more survivable, but raise some questions on whether that is a - cough cough - escalation.

    3. The most interesting one though is if the F-16s are allowed to keep their LINK-16 system, enabling secure and tactically-helpful data links with other NATO assets. If so, this could mean that NATO AWACS operating, say just inside the Polish border, could provide situational awareness of ‘Ukrainian’ F-16s. Maybe even provide better targeting for AMRAAMs.

    Any of the three would be quite helpful to Ukraine. Of the three, only 2 would be easily ‘provable’ while 1 and 3 would be difficult to prove by the Russians (unless a live pilot or a mostly intact plane was captured). And even then it would be he said/she said …like the case of German crews being caught in a destroyed Leopard II.

    Anyway, interesting days. Let’s see what happens.

    The biggest fear though I think Sankara escalation. Eg, Russia performing a false flag attack where alleged Ukrainian soldiers massacre a Russian village. Similar to how ‘Chechen or Dagestani’ terrorists bombed a building and sparked the Second Chechen war.