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And what are you suggesting, Mark? That we move to the Czech Republic before it’s too late?

Here’s a story of mine. Back in the 1960s, at a meeting of young conservatives, I met an old lady more immediately from Cuba, and prior to that from Russia. She said as a young woman, she escaped from the Soviet Union, and got to Cuba. And, as an old lady she escaped Castro’s Cuba, and got to America. Sympathy was expressed for her. She said no, she was lucky. She had someplace to go. Where will you go when your country falls to the communists?

As best as I can tell, the bias in the Fox Poll is 3 points. Real close to your claim of 4 points.

correct

The betting odds indicate that this is a close race.

To use a race horse analogy, the horses are still forming up at the gate. Four years ago, when the other side kept the Green Party candidate and Kanye West off the ballots in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin (and several other states), we probably lost those three states and the election. This year, it looks like the Green Party candidate will get on a lot of ballots and Cornel West, who knows.

Then there is RFK Jr. I’m not sure he’ll draw more from one or the other side. But, I think he’ll draw more from Biden than from our guy. Let’s see if RFK Jr. gets into the debates the way Ross Perot did during the 1990s.

In Georgia, Trump has a 7 point lead in the 5-way; In Michigan, he has a two point lead in the 5-way; Pennsylvania is tied in the 5-way; and, in Wisconsin, Biden has a 2 point lead in the 5-way.

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-trump-bests-biden-3-points-michigan

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-biden-trump-2024-pennsylvania-rematch#

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-biden-trump-remain-deadlocked-wisconsin

Thank Diana

Marquette isn’t a bad poll, but it tilts a little Democrat. If we’re ahead in the Prez and tied in the Sen in this poll, we’re in good shape. Admittedly, it’s early.

I see the Green Party is on the ballot, and I’m pretty sure RFK Jr will get on in Wisconsin. I’m not hearing anything from Cornel West regarding Wisconsin. In 2020, the Green Party candidate and Kanye West weren’t on the ballot. That was when deadline and checking signatures counted. We might’ve won the state if those two were on the ballot.

Check out this guy Cornel West. He is so far wacky left, I can only imagine him drawing votes from Biden.

https://www.cornelwest2024.com/

Pelosi and many other Democrats hate conservatives regardless of race, creed or color.

thanks airdalecheif

These polls are on the small side of statewide polls. So, sampling errors for each state are a bit large. The sample, as a whole, is pretty big. We can feel confident about where we stand at this time in the battleground states.

Regarding Wisconsin, one point down ... Trump tends to outperform the polls by more than one point. In 2016, nobody gave Trump a chance based on the polls in this state. But, Trump won Wisconsin. In 2020, Trump came from far behind to just barely lose (with maybe the other side harvesting some votes). So, I wouldn’t be disheartened by one, small poll.

Regarding Arizona, where there is some hullabaloo concerning a state supreme court decision on abortion, we have two other recent polls:

https://breakingbattlegrounds.substack.com/p/new-arizona-abortion-survey-results

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000018e-dfa4-dd93-a19f-fffe83440000

The three new these polls, together, are pretty solid.

Unlike Donald Trump and Keri Lake, the other side doesn’t want a compromise that protects privacy early during a pregnancy, and protects the kid after 12 or 15 weeks. They want abortion up until birth, and maybe infanticide, and they also want euthanasia.

Why do racists expect blacks to be over-represented in baseball?

In 2023, whites constituted 60 percent, Hispanics 30 percent, blacks 6 percent, and Asians and others 4 percent. Considering MLB draws from about half the world, I’m not sure blacks are underrepresented.

The percent white has hardly changed since the mid 1980s. The percent other than white has changed substantially, shifting from black to Hispanic and now a little bit to Asian. These changes among the other than white mostly reflect the entry of foreign players.

The last time I looked, nobody was holding any body back. No chains binding anybody’s feet. Indeed, baseball is kind of a funny team sport, with most of the players staying quite a distance away from each other. Except every now and then, you get a double play or maybe a pitcher covering first base. But, to show you how smart we human beings are - and it’s really kind of amazing - did you ever see an outfielder take off for a fly ball right when it’s off the bat.

These racial things change. There was a time, Italians seemed to dominate baseball. Also boxing. And, a time when college kids dominated track and field, and Jewish kids dominated basketball. There was a time, a long time ago, when blacks and Irish dominated horse racing. There’s a lot of history jammed packed into this still young country. Better enjoy it before the anti-Americans flush it all down the toilet.

Biden “asks” Israel and Ukraine to not attack Iran and Russia. Should work as well as releasing illegals without bail. Soft-headedness gets us into war and gets our cities overrun with crime. In the meanwhile, Biden is relentless in attacking working class people.

Bill Kristol has a problem with real conservatives. For decades, he was a democratic socialist. Then, the Democrats got wobbly on Israel and a strong national defense in general. So, he became a neo-con (short for neo-conservative). About the only thing he “contributed” to our party is getting us into stupid wars. He and the other neo-cons believed in the “transformational power” of elections. What an ass! The only more stupid is people who refuse to learn from mistakes. Voting doesn’t make people into industrious, self-responsible citizens. Working and providing for yourself in a competitive free market economy is what is transformational. Being as stupid as he is, he thinks you can win the hearts and minds by giving them stuff. We conservatives think welfare breeds contempt. You can never give people enough money. They always want more.

Tai, you didn’t answer the question. I’ll ask again. Why did Trump outperform the polls in 2016 and even more so in 2020?

How does this sound, Tai? In 2016, Trump outperformed the polls. In 2020, even more so. So, if Biden has to be ahead in the polls by 4 points to feel like he (Biden) is going to win. As it is, Trump, not Biden, is AHEAD in the polls, nationwide and in the battleground states. Now that I’ve answered your question, how about you answer one of mine? If Democrats cheat, for example, by voting dead people, how do you explain Trump outperforming the polls?

newzilla, you’ve commented “it’s a crap poll” to several of my posts. Are these the only English words your handlers taught you?

You sound gleeful concerning America not surviving. Is this because you are a Putinbot, or maybe are you a disheartened conservative?

My family isn’t so long in this country. I have three older uncles who served in the military during WWII. My father during the Korea War. I during the Vietnam Was. My son during the War on Terror. We’re not giving up on this country. No way in hell. The Cubans, when they lost their country to the communists, they came here. Assuming you’re a disheartened conservative, and not a Putinbot, where do you plan to go when this country falls to the progressive left?

I was in Nevada last week. Lots of paid campaign ads on the internet, all for Biden. I would appreciate hearing from people in battleground states. Are you seeing paid campaign ads?

Getting back to the Arizona polls. Big difference in these two polls is the Senate race. The Bullfinch poll shows a competitive Senate race, while the Raba poll shows the Democrat well in front.

The Realclear average is a bit stale for Arizona. Since the most recent poll included in that average, this poll (by Bullfinch Group) and another (by Raba) (which has a Democratic tilt) show Trump ahead. This poll (again, Bullfinch) has Trump ahead by 6, and the other (Raba) by 3.

Trump is generally running ahead of his Republican counterparts, like Senate and Governor candidates. Hopefully, he drags a few of them across the finish line in November.

correction: I figured you would NOT read my follow-up comment.

I figured that since you didn’t read the original post (that showed Trump ahead and you said the following, “Once again a poll that says something we do don’t like so it has to be bogus...” I figured you would read my follow-up comment. Then, when I beat you worse than UCONN beat each team it meet in the tournament, you took no issue with the facts I presented.

It is well known that Putinbots and Soros shills are on quotas. They have to cruise in, say something to sow discord, and then move on. So, if you’re not one of those people, you should spend enough time to read what you’re commenting on, and say something meaningful.

Hi mbrill. See Franklin’s answer at post 5 for why, in spite of cheating, Trump outperforms the polls.