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Great news! Toomey 45% - Sestak 38%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/pennsylvania/2010_senate_election/election_2010_pennsylvania_senate

“...what its pollsters have been saying in private: that Obama’s alienation of independents and white voters, along with the enthusiasm gap between the right and the left, means that Republicans are on a trajectory to pick up massive numbers of House and Senate seats, perhaps even to regain control of Congress.”

Winning over a clear majority of Independents and independent minded Dems (Reagan Dems) is always the key to either party’s chances. The Dems and Obama proved this true in 2006 and 2008, but unfortunately for them the pendulum has swung the opposite way this cycle, they are in for a very bad night on 11/2/10.

One more point about the poll, Obama made a highly publicized campaign swing through Nevada on Sunday the 11th (the poll was taken on 7/12 - 7/14) with Reid that received glowing coverage by the State MSM. Isn’t it reasonable to assume that Reid would definitely enjoy a bump in his numbers during this time period (just like Corzine in 2009 after Obama’s 2 highly publiczed and very well covered campaign swings through the State)? The answer is obviously yes. Lastly, Reid made a seismic gaffe when he said on video that there are no illegals working on construction sites in Nevada. That comment will haunt him for the rest of the campaign because it is directly related to the MAIN ISSUE of the race, jobs. As long as Angle sticks with her game plan and makes jobs, jobs, jobs the issue, she wins. Nevada recently passed Michigan as the State with the highest unemployment in the country (14% and growing). People’s prime concerns these days are jobs and the economy. Bob McDonnell proved this by running a positive campaign focusing on improving the economy and creating jobs in the face of brutal attacks from Creigh Deeds, the DNC, the DGA and the MSM. Deeds and company banked on attacking McDonnell and defining him as an extremist (sound familiar?), and he lost by 18 points. Harry Reid has not delivered jobs nor an improving economy to Nevada, and that why is he will lose this race.

http://www2.newsadvance.com/lna/news/local/article/mason-dixon_poll_mcdonnell_up_by_8_points_over_deeds/20278/

Bob McDonnell won by 18 points, 59-41, he also won Northern Va and Tidewater by substantial margins.

How can you credibly say that one of the most accurate pollsters in the business, Rasmussen, has a 2-3 point Repub bias? How? Please give me an example. Ras claimed during the heat of the 2008 campaign that Obama had a 7+ point lead, he was right on the money. Enlighten me.

Do you remember this poll? Other polls around the same time showed Bob with a larger lead than 8. Bob won by 18 points:

http://www2.newsadvance.com/lna/news/local/article/mason-dixon_poll_mcdonnell_up_by_8_points_over_deeds/20278/

Rasmussen has Angle +3 during the same time period, in addition, Mason Dixon wasn’t even close in their polling on the 2009 Va Gov race, Ras and Survey USA were right on the money.

“Not only that, look at RCP averages. Rasmussen has been one of the best for quite some time.”

Don’t forget Survey USA, their State by State polls are very accurate, they and Ras were right on the money in the 2009 VA governor’s race.

Mason Dixon had Reid +3 over Angle on 5/24 - 5/26, close to the same time that Research 2000 had Reid +6 and the Las Vegas Review had Angle +3. Mason Dixon and Research 2000 are the ONLY polls I could find that EVER showed Reid with a lead.

“Blaming a pollster as respected as Mason Dixon is just sticking your head in the sand, imo.”

You keep hanging your hat on Mason Dixon, why, what makes you think they are so credible? Rasmussen and Survey USA are the best in the business, look it up. Like I said before, Mason Dixon wasn’t even close in the VA governor’s race last year while Rasmussen and Survey USA were right on the money.

“but Mason Dixon is one of the gold standards of polling....”

What makes you think they are the “gold standard?” They weren’t even close in the VA governor’s race last year.

Sorry, not buying a Mason Dixon poll, no way, Rasmussen has her +3, I’m also waiting on Survey USA which probably has the most accurate State by State polls in the business.

CNN, what’s that? (s

“Three vacations in less than three months...!?”

I agree with you, it’s disgraceful.

Castle, Kirk and Fiorina would be the new RINO’s in residence joining Snowe, Collins and Brown. The good news is we would be the majority party.

I think there is a very real possibility the Repubs could win control of the Senate in 2010. Isn’t it funny how this MSM article mirrors earlier MSM articles that stated the Repubs could never pick up the House in 2010? I don’t read that anymore.

But, for some of the reasons you mention and others:

1) Toomey’s wildly successful fundraising

2) The fact that the DSCC has already spent their entire allotment of $1.6 million on coordinated State expenditures in PA, they spent it all on Specter, and the GOP hasn’t spent once cent of their allotment yet.

3) Sestak’s voting record

4) And most importantly Corbett’s, the Repub nominee for Governor of PA, strong showing in the polls to date should push Toomey over the top nicely.

Lastly, check out the latest Generic polls on RCP (link below), TIME has the Dems +1 among “Adults” and Bloomberg has the Repubs +8 among “Likely Voters,” two bad harbingers for the Dems’ chances this Fall.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-901.html

“People there belive that Reid will save them from their own failures.”

Where did you read that? From what I’ve read it seems that root canals are more popular in NV than Harry Reid. Angle is doing fine, she’s raising a lot of money and still leads Reid by at least 3 points after a highly publicized and hugely covered campaign swing by Obama this past weekend.

http://whitehouse.blogs.foxnews.com/2010/07/13/obama-heads-north-not-south-for-weekend-vacation/

Check out this article, it’s right on the money.

The “drop” was also the result of US automakers not laying off workers during the summer as they have traditionally done in the past, reason being is they have already shaved their employment ranks to the bone.