150 grain 30-06 at muzzle, 2970 ft/sec has 2938 ft-lb of kinetic energy, and at 400 yards and about 1900 ft/sec, still has 1232 ft-lb of kinetic energy.
But, to be fair, the foam-to-insulation situation is tougher to cipher. Each of the items can lose energy to deformation, or to cutting (sharp edge might slice off a piece of tile rather than crush it), so we have to consider the shape of the impacting object; the angle of impact, relative hardness (in a bullet-to-tissue event, tissue loses, but in a bullet-to-steel plate event, the bullet loses), and many other factors.
I think the indications all point to increased drag on the left wing, and hope that we will someday have information that permits us to have some certainty regarding the cause of this disaster.