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So here’s what the plethora of recent polling gives us since the GOP convention:

Alaska
Rasmussen 9/11
McCain 64, Obama 33
McCain +31

Alabama
AEA/Capital Survey 9/11
McCain 55, Obama 35
McCain +20

Colorado
InAdv/PollPosition 9/11
Obama 49, McCain 46
Obama +3

PPP (D) 9/11
Obama 47, McCain 46
Obama +1

FOX News/Rasmussen 9/9
Obama 49, McCain 46
Obama +3

Florida
InAdv/PollPosition 9/11
McCain 50, Obama 42
McCain +8

FOX News/Rasmussen 9/9
McCain 48, Obama 48
Tie

Quinnipiac 9/11
McCain 50, Obama 43
McCain +7

PPP (D) 9/9
McCain 50, Obama 45
McCain +5

Georgia
InAdv/PollPosition 9/11
McCain 56, Obama 38
McCain +18

Strategic Vision (R) 9/11
McCain 52, Obama 39
McCain +13

Idaho
Rasmussen 9/11
McCain 68, Obama 29
McCain +39

Maine
Research 2000 9/11
Obama 52, McCain 38
Obama +14

Maryland
Gonzales Res. 9/9
Obama 52, McCain 38
Obama +14

Michigan
InAdv/PollPosition 9/11
Obama 44, McCain 45
McCain +1

CNN/Time 9/11
Obama 49, McCain 45
Obama +4

Rasmussen 9/11
Obama 51, McCain 46
Obama +5

Strategic Vision (R) 9/9
Obama 45, McCain 44
Obama +1

PPP (D) 9/8
Obama 47, McCain 46
Obama +1

Mississippi
Research 2000 9/11
McCain 55, Obama 37
McCain +18

Missouri
CNN/Time 9/11
McCain 50, Obama 45
McCain +5

Montana
Rasmussen 9/10
McCain 53, Obama 42
McCain +11

Nevada
InAdv/PollPosition 9/11
McCain 46, Obama 45
McCain +1

New Hampshire
CNN/Time 9/11
Obama 51, McCain 45
Obama +6

New Jersey
Fairleigh Dickinson 9/10
Obama 47, McCain 41
Obama +6

New Mexico
Rasmussen 9/11
Obama 47, McCain 49
McCain +2

North Carolina
Civitas/TelOpinion (R) 9/11
McCain 47, Obama 44
McCain +3

PPP (D) 9/10
McCain 48, Obama 44
McCain +4

SurveyUSA 9/10
McCain 58, Obama 38
McCain +20

North Dakota
Rasmussen 9/10
McCain 55, Obama 41
McCain +14

Ohio
Quinnipiac 9/11
McCain 44, Obama 49
Obama +5

InAdv/PollPosition 9/11
McCain 48, Obama 47
McCain +1

Strategic Vision (R) 9/11
McCain 48, Obama 44
McCain +4

FOX News/Rasmussen 9/9
McCain 51, Obama 44
McCain +7

Oklahoma
SurveyUSA 9/9
McCain 65, Obama 32
McCain +33

Pennsylvania
Quinnipiac 9/11
Obama 48, McCain 45
Obama +3

Strategic Vision (R) 9/10
Obama 47, McCain 45
Obama +2

Virginia
CNN/Time 9/11
McCain 50, Obama 46
McCain +4

FOX News/Rasmussen 9/9
McCain 49, Obama 47
McCain +2

SurveyUSA 9/9
McCain 49, Obama 47
McCain +2

Washington
SurveyUSA 9/9
Obama 49, McCain 45
Obama +4

West Virginia
MBE 9/10
McCain 44, Obama 39
McCain +5

Wisconsin
Strategic Vision (R) 9/9
Obama 46, McCain 43
Obama +3

Wyoming
Rasmussen 9/11
McCain 58, Obama 39
McCain +19

Of the states in play going into the conventions, here’s what’s happened (sorted in their order bluest to reddest as they were in May 2008):

10 Minnesota - Pawlenty not chosen, PPP polling in CO suggests little intrastate convention bounce for Ds, likely little then for Rs in MN, is probably no closer than O+5 and is at the edge of being in play.

11 Washington - Alaska connection popped McCain in Eastern Red Washington. The state is now at O+4, on GOP radar but not a tipper state.

4 Maine - No indications that Maine has closed. McCain was thought to be at the edge of play in early 2008, now solid Obama.

3 Delaware - Biden pick sends DE off the screen. Not that it was weighing in much before.

7 Oregon - Washington +4, makes needed polling in OR interesting, if WA is at O+4, then OR would be at O+2-3%.

10 Wisconsin - Closed to O+3, skating at the edge of coming into play. But for me MI flips before WI, maybe even PA before WI.

15 New Jersey - NJ toys with GOP optimists but its really out of reach, and not a tipper. GOP optimists should look at MI, PA, WI, MN, NH, OR and WA, probably IA before NJ. Hell if NJ goes, the Big Kahuna CA would be in play at roughly 3 points behind NJ.

7 Iowa - Ethanol ... game over. I don’t expect to see it move below O+5 if we get a poll soon. MN will flip before IA.

21 Pennsylvania - Weird result from Quinnipiac, with OH+5 and PA+3. AA vote out of Philly is going to be big. O’s insult to rural PA hurts. Looks like the GOP is going to spend money here, but O’s got 65 field offices open, wow!

4 New Hampshire - Weak post GOP Convention number tells me NH is following ME out of play. If McCain hadgone with a pro-choicer like Ridge or even a Purple Shocker Play with Olympia Snowe. But with Palin New England will go solid Blue.

5 New Mexico - O’s weak Hispanic crosstabs in the Ras poll should have O peeps concerned BUT CO PPP Hispanic crosstabs don’t match. Something’s not right. Until we see other evidence of Hispanics moving toward McCain with Bush levels of support, we should assume NM is still O’s to lose.

17 Michigan - Lots of troubles here for O, with kooky D-Town Mayor and unpopular D Gov. Plus Palin might as well be from the UP as Alaska. Lots of Hockey Moms. In my mind MI is the most vulnerable Kerry and at 17EV, it offsets CO + IA’s 16

9 Colorado - The leading Tipper. As a CO homey, I want CO to go Red, but my brain thinks its O here by a nose. McCain got drubbed by Romney. My wife and I were the only McCain votes in our caucus. I buy the Palin works where Hillary and Huckabee were strong theory. O crushed Hill and Huck got little run in Colorado. CO may stay the #1 tipper into Nov. 538.com has it tipping 45%.

20 Ohio - Quinnipiac ruined my day with the O+5, three other polls brought me out of depression. McCain should carry OH by 1-2%, but having 20EV’s this exposed makes me VERY nervous. But at least the O peeps need to be worring about MI too.

5 Nevada - Yucca Mountain plus libertarians plus housing in LV. Lots going on here. Yucca is being run into the ground by O. I would like to see NV at M+3-4, which would hold us in the light red assuming Nate’s estimate of 2 points of M bounce left to fade is correct.

13 Virginia - Three polls have it just under M+3. Nate’s analysis says 2 points come off M from the bounce. Looks like VA is going to be close and creates new path’s for O is the Western Hispancs walk in NM and CO and/or the hockey moms in MI flip.

3 Montana - Palin sealed the deal. Its out of play.

11 Missouri - I expected a bigger Palin pop here than we got. M+5 isn’t impressive. MO is not a red, its a purple.

11 Indiana - No new polling but I expect it to be in M+7-10 territory. Hell if the Hispanics are moving McCain and WA #’s hold south through eastern CA, Cali might well be under 10 right now. For O optminists, IN is a reach and not a tipper.

27 Florida - I think FL is drifting away from O. 4 polls average M+5, that’s one point off NJ going the other way. There’s enough Red Florida to offset purple Florida which may be drfiting back and forth and also Blue SE Florida

3 North Dakota - O optimists want to believe but the reality is that ND like MT are heading towards Bush 04 numbers. ND at M+14 is a bigger reach for O than Cali is for M. The game isn’t here.

15 North Carolina - The SurveyUSA M+20 isn’t supported by anything else, and appears to be an outlyer. They clearly got that one botched up. NC should be JUST off VA. If VA is M+2.7, then NC is M+3-4. The other NC polling agrees. With VA, NC offers a Plan C for Obama if, the West falls away and MI collapses. Since I doubt both will befall O, I don’t think his path to victory will require both VA and NC. But it might need one of them.

3 South Dakota - SD is about 3-5 points more blue than ND, if NC is at M+14, then SD is off the table at M+9-11

3 Alaska - Palin, done.

5 West Virginia - Interesting M+5 number from a local firm got attention. We need a major to come in a verify. Kind of hard to understand what’s happening here if M is strengthening in PA and OH as well as the red South. Could come back into the game by month end.

We Americans should keep a little history in mind, when talking about our allies reluctance to go to war in Iraq. The Western Democracies don't move to war easily. Frankly, because war is something good people, in control of their governments, don't desire.

Remember:

Britain and her Dominions (Canada, India, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa et al) stood alone against Hitler from France's collapse through Pearl Harbor. The good old U.S.A. helped out with arms and some semi-coverts in China but we were essentially on the sidelines from September 1939 through December 1941.

In 1956, our allies France, the UK and Israel went to war against Egypt for seizing and nationalizing the British/French Suez Canal (the equivilent of their Panama Canal) and we actively opposed them, perhaps rightly.

No doubt Anti-Americanism is in vogue. But never forget it is not Iraq. The Euro Left went to war in the Balkins with no more cause or authority than Iraq. The USA is the leading alternative, globally, to Euro style socialism. Remember William Buckley Jr's instruction .. the Left has no enemies on the Left.

Anti-Americanism is really the second place socialist leading the rest of the global failures in opposing their superior alternative and therefore, threat. So anti-Americanism aka anti-capitalism is also in vogue with reformed and unreformed communists - Chicoms; state fascists - Baathists; state populists - Peronists; and state mafias - the French Center Right Coalition and Kofi's UN). Socialism's only alternative is Democratic Capitalism - led by the US Republican Party, the British, Aussie and Canadian Conservatives and Japan's Liberals, with kindred spirits on the Right in Spain, Italy, Poland, Netherlands, Norway, Austria, Denmark and elsewhere. The US Democrats, the British Labour Party, the German Christian Democrats and maybe even elements within Putin's Russian Orthodox Nationalists are torn between the two.

The war in Iraq is merely an opportunity to wage opposition to and undermine our alternative Democratic Capitalism to their socialism.

1939 - 1980 was the world conceived by FDR and Churchill.

1980 - the present is the world conceived by Reagan and Thatcher.

Chirac-Annan Mafias, Euro Left Intellectuals, obsolete 2nd & 3rd World Leftist intellectuals and Pols, and Islamofacist Neanderthals not withstanding.

Cheers

Does anyone have the list of which nations voted for and against the resolution condemning the Communist Cuban Regime?

Cheers

I wonder if we could find a Congressman who'd be willing to introduce a bill extending an invitation to Alberta to join the Union.

Just a thought.

Not since France defeated Greenpeace by blowing up the Enviro's anti-nuke testing ship as it sat in harbor in New Zealand have young French men and women been so victorious. Using paint and stones, France's finest liberate several thousand square feet of Paris from the evil USA global fascist terrorist group MacDonalds.

Keeping France safe to manufacture Mirage jets parts, nuclear reactors and chemical weapons gear for Joseph Stalin wannbes everywhere.

Lovely,

Haben ein guten tag, Frankreich

THE UNITED STATES AND THE UNITED KINGDOM ARE TWO GOVERNMENTS WHICH DIVIDE A COMMON PEOPLE.

(to modify the old saying about our shared language)

Cheers, Gratefully, from the USA

MAYBE WE SHOULD FLY THE "GRAND UNION" FLAG (UNION JACK IN THE FIELD OF THE STARS AND STRIPES - PERHAPS TOO WITH THE AUSSIES' SOUTHERN CROSS STARS IMPOSED OVER THE STRIPES)

Allen asks, "How long do you think France and Germany can remain allies"

We were a few points from Ann Merkel's Christian Democrats ruling Germany. (Merkel said she would have signed the Letter of 8). I doubt the Center-Right lose again. So the answer? Soon after the next German federal election.

First rate analysis! Encourage this one to be read widely.

We should learn from the French, when Greenpeace causes you problems (say by monitoring your South Pacific nuke tests) you go to war with them and maybe blow up their ship in a harbor. I think France's Greenpeace War maybe the only one they've won in almost a hundred years.

So when you "also teach at Columbia" you get to have student s do "work" unpaid I assume, for a third party? Nice racket these creeps have going.

Peace (Mir) means an absence of resistence to Communism, so attacking the USA is peaceful and preventing an attack on a Baathist national socialist is peaceful.

Its doublespeak in Orwell's terms - I'd say "unwar" in good Ingsoc (Ingsoc - from 1984, the term meaning the modified English language of Socialism that precludes the conceptualization of resistance, therefore, by extention anything other than peace)

We should learn from the French, when Greenpeace causes you problems (say by monitoring your South Pacific nuke tests) you go to war with them and maybe blow up their ship in a harbor. I think France's Greenpeace War maybe the only one they've won in almost a hundred years.

So when you "also teach at Columbia" you get to have student s do "work" unpaid I assume, for a third party? Nice racket these creeps have going.

Peace (Mir) means an absence of resistence to Communism, so attacking the USA is peaceful and preventing an attack on a Baathist national socialist is peaceful.

Its doublespeak in Orwell's terms - I'd say "unwar" in good Ingsoc (Ingsoc - from 1984, the term meaning the modified English language of Socialism that precludes the conceptualization of resistance, therefore, by extention anything other than peace)

For the moment lets assume that the Carnegie Endowment isn't a front group and this Jessica Tuchman Mathews is well intentioned.

The critical flaws are many, but here goes

1)Her proposal requires a large forced (several hundred thousand combatants) forward deployed for a rather long and undetermined period while the inspections proceed. A) The cost of this force in the field is significant. B) The USA and UK have mobilized reserves, the troops are deployed in the field not in fixed bases. I assume Mrs. Mathews has not spent say 120 days in the Kuwaiti desert sleeping in the sand in a tent and eating MREs. C) The total force projection causes power vacuums around the world. USA force projection capabilities are not endless. This deployment represents a significant percentage of our capabilities. Others will cause mischief while we're tied down.

2) How much will the USA have to pay nations to allow us to be the UN's right arm. What are the consequences politically of such large forces stationed in arab countries. Iraq gets to prepare massive defenses to face off against our troops fixed deployments. Islamist or Baathist supported terrorist get to hit our troops in station.

3) Iraq, Islamists and opportunistic anti-American Leftists would have time to build their fifth column power against any use of the US force. Iraq would expand and target its bribes - both direct of individual leaders on the UNSC and of the country's themselves on the UNSC.

4) Saddam can play the game indefinately. Giving enough to ward off attack while seeking to develop a WMD inventory which would become large and sophisticated enough to become a deterent to any US action. The game continues until Saddam eventually is able to have the rate of growth in his covert WMD program exceed the rate he must give up elements of his WMD to the UN to ward them off and reach deterence.

If I'm Saddam I'll take this offer happily. I'll ask the French to raise it for me at the UNSC. I'll ship some of my WMD peeps to say Sudan and work on Bios and Chems there. ($ and people can be moved off shore for a secondary development play). Hell I'll buy a bunch of freighters and station labs on them and float them around the Indian Ocean. I'll hire some good Euro-Lawyers to find the types of ships the UN can;t search and put stuff on them. Maybe I'll move some labs to Embassies and smuggle stuff in diplomatic bags.

Give me more than just a few minutes to think on this and I'll cook up plenty of other ways to get around it. Here's $2 billion for some more French Mirage Jets.

Wonder if the Japanese would amend their pacifist constitution to allow military ops approved by / under the UN Security Council. Then we could push for the Japanese to replace the French on the UN Security Council - after we take Baghdad and out the French-Iraqi Fascist connections (illegal military and economic activity in violation of UN resos and sanctions).

Here's what I sent Mary:

So Turkey voting to thwart a northern front trumps all your sound reasons to keep Turkey out of the EU. Hmm. Your assertion that the Turk's action will stop US action in Iraq is simply wrong. The 4th Inf will move south and be used in a second wave assault on Baghdad if needed. It stops nothing. If anything it shows that Turkey is more Islamic than European which you seamed to have recognized and now ignore. Your notion that Turkey rejected due to a desire to be more like the French is absurd. They're Muslims first not asiatic-French and they didn't like the US objections to them going into Kurdistan. No USA troops in northern Iraq makes a Ottoman Turk entry into Northern Iraq less contrained.

I guess the EU border will be a Turkish Imperial Kurdistan. I didn't realize that EU membership should be based on anti-Americanism. Nice.

Cheers from the Evil America,

Glenn

Taking the lead from George Orwell's 1984, English Socialism in Newspeak was reduced to Ingsoc. So, perhaps in his honor we should reduce Eurosocialism down to the more Big Brotheresque - Eurosoc.

Cheers
7o62x39