Here is the raw data on the recall. The large majority of this vote is still absentee in the count. Trust me.
Yes 1,777,447 55.5
No 1,428,386 44.5
I looked at the site. It seems that the total votes recieved by the candidates is roughly equal to those cast for or against Prop 54 and like you said roughly 10% below the total yes, no on recall. If Cruz loses by less than 10% , it could be Bush/Gore redux because the dems will claim that ther folks were told they couldn't vote for a candidate if they voted no on recall and some judge somewhere will agree with them.
Good luck!:-}