I know I'm nosey..:-)
I'm still waiting for Saddam to reply to my e-mail. ;-)
Seriously, here is what I see unfolding, assuming there is no diplomatic breakthrough on Monday and Saddam doesn't suddenly decide to take asylum. I believe Saddam is holding out hope that the UN, led by France, will bail him out. Once he sees that they will not be able to hold the TAA back is when he will strike out, yes, with a first strike; however, I don't believe the first missiles he lobs will be aimed at us. He knows that if it is simply him against us, he will be wiped out. His strategy, IMHO, will be to start a war between Israel and her Arab neighbors. He will try to accomplish this by lobbing missiles and bombs into Israel, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. He may also send a few into Iran and Kuwait. That, I believe, is his plan. How successful he would be is another story. First, he needs people to pull the triggers, and, secondly, we will certainly do everything we can to prevent any offensive weapons of his from hitting foreign soil.
Why would Saddam use such a strategy and strike out at his Arab neighbors? First of all, he has NO love for any of those neighbors. He fought a decade-long war with Iran, took over Kuwait, and threatened to invade Saudi Arabia. If we had not taken action to kick him out of Kuwait, he would probably inhabit those 3 countries by now, especially if he had developed "the bomb". As we know, he has gassed his own people, so he certainly would have no problem with attacking fellow Arabs, especially ones aiding our efforts here (Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan). If he does attack these other countries along with Israel, he would then announce to the world that an American/Israli war on the entire Middle East is under way. He would want the world, especially the Arab world to believe that it is Israel and US that has attacked Jordan and Saudi Arabia. He would want Israel to think that the bombs landing on them are from Jordan and Saudi Arabia. His only hope is utter chaos. Remember the American and British uniforms that Saddam has? He could well put out video of supposed Alliance atrocities against innocent people at the same time he starts the bombing. Obviously, he would be trying to get the world, especially the Arab world to rally together and fight Israel and the Alliance.
Now, of course, with detection equipment it can be shown where these missiles are originating from, but Saddam wants to imflame the people of these other nations into thinking they are under attack from the Alliance and Israel. He would like the people of these other nations to ignore what their "puppet" regimes, and the Alliance/Israel is telling them. If a bomb hits Amman, Jordan, and Saddam announces that "Jordan is under attack from Israel" the Jordanian people may believe him rather than the "official" denials. Again, this is just an opinion, based upon what he has done in the past and what his current actions are, including his troop movements. This is why I say his "first strike" targets will likely NOT be the TAA forces. He would hope that by NOT attacking us directly, he could buy himself a little more time to execute his other strategy, because he knows once he directly attacks us it is over.
It sounds frightening if this truly is his strategy, but I don't see him pulling it off for various reasons. As previously mentioned, he needs people to pull the triggers and drop these bombs. Some may refuse to do so. He also has to hope that he gets past the defensive measures we have taken. I would assume that Jordan and Saudi Arabia are prepared for such a scenario and have taken defensive measures themselves, although it's certainly not out of the question for a missile or 2 to get through. I believe the heaviest loss of American life in Operation Desert Storm was when a missile hit a base in Saudi Arabia. Finally, one of our initial goals is to dismantle or takeover Saddam's ability to communicate with his forces and with the outside world. It is important for us to be able to communicate directly with Iraqi people ASAP, so we are not going to let Saddam's propaganda drag on once the bombs are falling. He may get a few shots off with a first strike strategy, but we will end that ability quickly by eliminating the weapons, his ability to communicate, and by the surrendering of Iraqi troops.
Once the TAA goes on offensive I believe we will indeed see the "shock and awe" we have heard so much about. Expect massive surrendering by the Iraqi troops initially, and more still after a little "S & A". The hope is that after witnessing the utter hopelessness of propping up Saddam, that even his most loyal forces in Baghdad will turn on him, and give him up. If there's much street fighting it could well be a civil conflict between those opposed to Saddam and those trying to protect him. Of course we would love those closest to him to produce his head on a platter before we fire one (more) bullet, but we are prepared to do as much of the work ourselves. While I don't believe Saddam will ever surrender voluntarily or leave Iraq voluntarily, I wouldn't be surprised to see some of his top advisors, even his sons split when things go down, so don't be surprised if everyone we are looking for is not accounted for when the smoke clears and the dust settles. They will be fugitives.
One more aspect of this that I would like to touch is the reaction of the Iraqi people. Believe it or not, I see a lot of similarities between this situation and the Elizabeth Smart abduction. What in the world is to be compared there you ask? Well, think about it. ES was taken by a madman, held against her will, and (likely) abused in most every fashion imaginable. Hasn't Saddam done the exact same thing to his people? ES learned that survival depended upon one thing - obedience to her "master". The Iraqi people know the same thing - disobedience will not be permitted. This was so ingrained into poor ES, that even when questioned by police she tried to deceive them. Does anyone think that in her heart of hearts she really wanted to remain with these people? I don't. I am afraid that she must have been so terrorized, that in her mind, allowing ANYONE to know her secret meant terrible consequences. Her mind was so twisted to this notion that it was hard for her to accept that it could be any other way, even with armed police officers there. It meant she had to reveal the secret that was the only thing to keep her alive for months. It was simply hard for her to let go of that, but once she realized she was safe and she broke down. I know she has a long way to go, but I would bet that she is much happier today than she was a week ago. Here's another anology. Let's say a very cruel dog owner slams the door on his pet everytime it tries to go outside. Obviously, that dog will be conditioned to not go outside. Then one day the man is hauled off and somebody nice invites the dog to come outside and play. Do you think that dog is going to be a little reluctant to do so? Of course, due to conditioning. I think many of the Iraqi people are currently under similar circumstance. Some don't want to admit they have a brutal dictator, because to admit as much in public meant certain punishment. Once they realize that their liberation is at hand, and they no longer have Saddam to fear, I think they will "break down" and accept their new-found freedom with tears of joy. I don't know the exact moment that will happen, but I would think that once it is announced and proven that Saddam is dead, their national nightmare will be over as far as they are concerned.
See what ya get for being so "nosey"??? LOL
Keep the faith and keep the President and our troops in your prayers.
God Bless