Stratfor War and Geo-Political Analyais (Don't miss this one!)

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[BullDog108]

They already got the sart date WRONG.

[Semper Paratus]

I disagree with the 'sideshow' labeling of North Korea.
If we don't stop their plutonium process in the next 3 months they will have mad enough to export untold number of dirty bomb material.

[BullDog108]

Make that START date wrong.

[the gillman@blacklagoon.com]

I agree with the general premise, that it isn't oil, but the strategic location that we need. Our being in possesion of Iraq is an effective check against our other enemies, who are legion.

I disagree with their take on China. US possesion of Iraq, puts them back on their heels. I believe we are in a world war, like it or not, and taking Iraq puts us in a strong position to start from.

Don't see Korea as a sideshow. There will be war on the Korean peninsula.

[advocate10]

I post them, I don't write them.

[xzins]

I followed stratfor pretty closely during the kosovo war. They got it wrong. I don't remember all the details, but I remember my support for the Serbs and the inadequacy of the case against them.

Stratfor focused in the same area as I did...that's why I followed them. But they called it wrong.

Clinton did go in, he did defeat Yugoslavia, he did impose his will on Kosovo.

[advocate10]

I am forced to brag a little at this point.

When Desert Storm began, I was on active duty with the USAF stationed at the Air Reserve Personnel Center in Denver. We had the job of calling the selected reserve personnel to active duty.

I had no access to anything classified in this regard, but knowing that the reserve call-up was nearly complete, and playing with other factors, I predicted the date and hour of the attack on Baghdad many days in advance. (Actually, I was 40 minutes off because I did not factor in flight time from Riyadh to Baghdad.) So I really only predicted take off time.

It wasn't too difficult to consider: troops in place, the phases of the moon, Islamic holidays and a general hunch.

Anyway, I was watching Dan Blather at about 20:40 MST as the bombs started falling on Baghdad. I had predicted they would start at 20:00 MST.

[stuartcr]

With human nature as it is, there will always be some phase of a cold war somewhere.

[advocate10]

"I followed stratfor pretty closely during the kosovo war. They got it wrong. I don't remember all the details, but I remember my support for the Serbs and the inadequacy of the case against them. "

You remember correctly. Stratfor did miscalculate a lot of things about Kosovo.

[Cicero]

Stratfor is a group of very intelligent outsiders. It has the advantage that they think outside the box. They probably don't work with inside information or tips from the security agencies.

They have been pretty good, except in the case of the Afghan campaign, which they got completely and utterly wrong.

This analysis seems sensible to me on the whole. It's what Freepers have already been saying. EXCEPT, as already pointed out, that North Korea is probably miscalculating and going too far, as STRATFOR recognizes that France has, and there will probably be at least a strike to take out their nuclear reactors.

China is the great enigma. This will weaken them in some ways, because they were hoping to control events in central Asia through their ally, Pakistan. They were hoping to expand westward as well as into Formosa. Instead, the U.S. is moving into that region. It looks as if we will wind up holding TWO centers of control: in the Middle East oil region and in the Central Asian "great game" region. We are more likely to firm up in alliance with Russia than with China. China poses the greatest potential threat to our future, after militant Islam.

[sd-joe]

It may be worse than "dirty bomb material".

Iraq has the technology to make real nukes. All it is lacking is the plutonium.

Pakistan has the technology.

China is unreliable in what technology it will export.

North Korea may have the technology.

There is the real danger of actual nuke devices, not just dirty bombs.

[ravingnutter]

Why? Because, ultimately, after Iraq, dealing with Pakistan will the next overriding objective for the US.

Hmmm...hence Pakistan's sudden cooperation? Hope they are sincere and not just trying to get off of the s**t list by turning over Mohammed.

[mondonico]

Fascinating post.

[Semper Paratus]

It may be worse than "dirty bomb material".

Yeah but the plutonium can get out sooner and easier.

[We Happy Few]

Stratfor's evaluation of Iran is pretty vague. The important question is whether, with Yanks to the left of them and Yanks to the right of them, the younger Iranians will have the resolve to overthrow the theocracy and establish a secular democracy.

[Stefan Stackhouse]

Taking a major capital is a scale of task hitherto unattempted in US military history

Mexico City

Richmond

Algiers

Rome

Paris

Manilla

Seoul (twice)

Kuwait City

Kabul

[Free the USA]

http://www.freerepublic.com/perl/bump-list

[Norman Arbuthnot]

Stratfor did miscalculate a lot of things about Kosovo.

I believe Stratfor also predicted that the Taliban were going to be a tougher opponent than they turned out to be. OTOH, I'm concerned about Stratfor's assessment of the Korean situation. If they think that there is no real danger of war breaking out in Korea then we better get ready because rounds will probably be flying across the DMZ soon.

[finnman69]

Good analysis, but start date is blown.