[Poohbah]

The developing geo-political and military situation is not good at all. If we are sucked into any kind of major warfare in the Mid-East ... meaning that they actually fight and give us any kind of difficulty, then it is not too far a stretch to think that N. Korea tries to go south.

The Army's TACWAR system could do what Saddam Hussein couldn't do: actually get his troops to fight--and that is why our casualty estimates were an order of magnitude too high. The Iraqi Army has even less reason to fight for the greater glory of the Husseini al-Tikriti clan today.

BTW, if the DPRK charges south, my money's on the ROKs, with or without significant US assistance. Another prediction: If Kim Jong-Il tries anything nuclear against Japan, the JSDF will suddenly reveal what they did with the missing plutonium, and our postwar problem will be "OK, how the f*** do we keep the Japanese from trying to establish the Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere?"

My read on the global situation is that the "conventional" (read: "usual") threat scenarios are going to be overturned by 2015, and we're going to settle into an uneasy standoff between us, the Franco-German Axis of Europe, and possibly Brazil. Japan may jump in either direction, depending less on economics and more on cultural shifts.

Our significant allies will be Russia (or as much of Russia as will be actually governed from Moscow), the UK, Eastern and some of Southern Europe, Israel, Iraq (post-Hussein), and Iran (post-theocracy). Minor allies will include the South American neighbors of Brazil.

Not-so-fun places will be mainland China (warlords, famine, and nukes, oh my!), the Arabian peninsula (where we will have to smash the odd Wahabbist uprising), and Africa (as always).

[Noswad]

PooBah... It seems to me that you are afraid to list your theory about who our real enemy is. What is more unfortunate, is that by listing it, you know you will not be able to back it up with real data.

What is it about Germany that really concerns you?

As for Russia and China, the data confirms a real threat. Also, look at the source of the very first source and deliver to me something that would indicate that Bill Gertz is not a valid source (Washington Times or not)?

Meanwhile, upgrade your methods to be less dialectic and more informative. I'm certain you have a real opinion and real information on the subect of the thread rather than a disingenuous obligation to debate it.

[Jeff Head]

The Chinese, if they are going to make any move at all ... will do so before 2015. They will probably do so in conjunction with the North Koreans and would certainly love to get the Islamic nations to create as much of a diversion as possible. Right now I believe it is actually premature for their major move ... but stranger things have happened.

They see the same things we do ... and will be in an economic position to make their play (if one is to be made) within the next few years time frame.

In order to do so, they will have to negate the US Navy and they know it. A tall order for sure, but one they are planning for. No other scenario will work for them ... or for anyone else for that matter.

They are trying to use limited numbers of Sunburn and the newer Yahkont missiles to move in that direction, but that is playing against the CBG's strength, which is air defense and which has not been sitting still since the introduction of the Sunburn quite a few years ago.

Even so, those missiles could maybe pull off taking down an Aegis cruiser or Carrier with a saturtion attack ... and over the next few years perhaps they will develop enough resource to mount a couple of them. But then they would face a retrribution that would destroy their entire navy in short order and so defeat the reasoin for making the attack in the first place.

So, short of something much more effective, that plan can only be considered a complimentary strategy in any major war scenario. I still believe that the most serious, most viable threat to the CBG is sub-surface. I went to some ends to develop a purely fictional super-weapon in my series of novels to make the rest possible.

If they ever did come up with something that could negate our sea power advantage ... it would make the entire situation orders of magnitude more dangerous and difficult.

In the real world, short of something like that, they will fail. But we cannot discount them for two reasons:

1. They are trying to develop just such avenues and we must ensure that we stay abreast of and ahead of anything they might put forward.

2. The fact that they will fail without something fairly amazing does not mean we are clear of the danger ... Yamamoto and many of the Japanese knew that they would fail too. It didn't stop them from going for it when they thought they had no other option and killing a lot of our folks in the process of putting that particular genie back in the bottle.

I believe the Chinese know all of this and are trying to develop plans, however furtile to our way of thinking, to overcome our advantage and play to their strengths. Putting their genie back in the bottle might end up being a very formidable task, particular in any ground campaign(s) on mainland Asia if it came to that.

We shall see.