China quietly gets ultra-cutting edge advanced SU-30MKK Fighter Bombers from Russia.

Notes from the Pentagon. (Washington Times) via Drudge Headliner ^ | 14 FEB 2003 | Bill Gertz and Rowan Scarborough

[SauronOfMordor]

China's strategy so far seems good: concentrate mostly on building its industrial base, making lots of money, and accumulating lots of people with high-tech skill.

Meanwhile, Chinese industry makes US industry go away. Chinese tech people coming in via H1B take away US tech jobs, and make tech careers unattractive to US kids.

The Chinese understand the fundamental weakness of the US military: military spending may not adversely affect the US standard of living or spending for "social services". If they can cripple the US economy to the point where we can no longer afford a first-class military, they win. Like the story of the tortose and the hare, they will plod along until the US gets tired and takes a nap, then pass us while we sleep

[Poohbah]

You are assuming that the ChiCom economy won't implode in the process.

Hey, nobody thought Enron could go broke as long as they were selling electricity in California, but they did.

China's just Enron with the trappings of a nation-state.

[GOP_1900AD]

Poohbah you ARE COMPLETELY WRONG! Russian GNP - 5%. US GNP - 2%!

[GOP_1900AD]

So does that make you, oh grand one, a 12 star FR "general?".....

[GOP_1900AD]

Aha, you have finally revealed your own secret to mental acumen! PROZAC!!! ;)

[Poohbah]

Poohbah you ARE COMPLETELY WRONG! Russian GNP - 5%. US GNP - 2%!

Our 2% growth, because we are starting with a far larger base, makes their alleged 5% growth (if that is anything resembling reality--which, with things pertaining to Russian economics, is not guaranteed) look like a teaspoon of sand piled next to Mount Everest.

[Poohbah]

Guess again.

Some folks need Prozac--such as the people who predicted 197 of the last ZERO massive nuclear attacks on America.

Others, like me, merely need to actually read the professional-grade material.

[Poohbah]

So does that make you, oh grand one, a 12 star FR "general?".....

Nope.

But many of the same folks screaming "THE COMMIES ARE COMING! THE COMMIES ARE COMING!" were also screaming "QUAGMIRE! QUAGMIRE!" during Afghanistan and Iraq...

[GOP_1900AD]

Hrumph, hrumph, hrumph..... Professional grade material.... hrumph, hrumph, hrumph..... group think.....hrumph, hrumph, hrumph..... organizational momentum.... hrumph, hrumph, hrumph... that's how we've "always" done it.... hrumph, hrumph, hrumph.... there's NO WAY that [fill in the blank with a pet assumption that massages a "powerful" bureaucrat's political asipirations].....hrumph... hrumph... hrumph.....

[GOP_1900AD]

I was not saying or screaming "QUAGMIRE!" In both cases my only utterance, if any, was, "so when can we get this show on the road? Time's a waistin'!"

[M Kehoe]

Ivan needs the cash, and the Chicoms want Taiwan. No matter, I would love to watch the Chinese when they begin carrier ops. The video would bring millions.

5.56mm

[Poohbah]

Hrumph, hrumph, hrumph..... Professional grade material.... hrumph, hrumph, hrumph..... group think.....hrumph, hrumph, hrumph..... organizational momentum.... hrumph, hrumph, hrumph... that's how we've "always" done it.... hrumph, hrumph, hrumph.... there's NO WAY that [fill in the blank with a pet assumption that massages a "powerful" bureaucrat's political asipirations].....hrumph... hrumph... hrumph.....

Look, moron, if you're arguing that we face a specific threat, you need to support it with something more substantial than a bunch of "maybe they can do this" and "maybe they can do that."

In other words, you need solid EVIDENCE that they're doing all these amazingly-outside-the-box things.

And that's something notably lacking in the folks screaming "NUCLEAR LAYDOWN! NUCLEAR LAYDOWN! ANY DAY NOW!"

[Poohbah]

Carrier ops requires a carrier...and carriers take YEARS to build.

[M Kehoe]

I thought the Chicoms bought one. Russian, I think.

5.56mm

[Poohbah]

They bought a Kiev-class CVH. And turned it into a floating hotel/casino.

There were persistent rumors that the ChiComs were buying the Varyag, incomplete at Nikolayev. Nothing ever came of them.

[M Kehoe]

They bought a Kiev-class CVH. And turned it into a floating hotel/casino.

8^)

Maybe one day we will be able to get along with the Chinese.

5.56mm

[GOP_1900AD]

I seem to recall that the casino thing never happened and that "plan" (or, was it disinfo?) was shelved. I also am led to believe that the hull is in a highly secure drydock area undergoing unknown modifications.

[Antoninus]

Hey Poohb--For the record, while I tend more toward the alarmist end of the Chinese problem, I find your posts informative, level-headed, and honest. They've talked me in off the ledge on many occasions and I much appreciate them.

I'm looking for that Chinese rebellion sooner, rather than later. I wonder if we'll see any signs at their Olympic showcase in 2004...

[Antoninus]

In order to do so, they will have to negate the US Navy and they know it. A tall order for sure, but one they are planning for. No other scenario will work for them ... or for anyone else for that matter.

Even after 100+ years, Alfred Thayer Mahan is still relevant...

[Poohbah]

Actually, it'll be in 2008. Athens has the 2004 slot.

Can you imagine the fun?

Just imagine if the Sarejevo Winter Olympics had been in 1992 instead of 1984 :o)