China quietly gets ultra-cutting edge advanced SU-30MKK Fighter Bombers from Russia.

Notes from the Pentagon. (Washington Times) via Drudge Headliner ^ | 14 FEB 2003 | Bill Gertz and Rowan Scarborough

[vannrox]

Russia delivered the latest batch of advanced SU-30MKK fighter bombers to China within the past month and additional jets are on the way, according to U.S. intelligence officials.

Russia's arms exports used to be public. But under pressure from Beijing, Moscow agreed to keep secret its major weapons systems transfers to China.

[AppyPappy]

With all the excess pork and wasted billions in the Federal budget, why would your first thought be to cut off money used to help millions of people who are suffering and dying?

Because it's not the federal government's job to save people overseas from themselves.

[Poohbah]

That's a possiblity, but at the same time, if they can take out a 688 or two, it might be a problem for us. Think of an undersea Mogadishu.

Very unlikely, because the ChiComs wouldn't have the strength left to capitalize on the alleged "success."

We MAY lose a 688. But the blockade would be broken--and so would the PLAN, for at least a generation.

[hchutch]

If things go well. But no battle plan survives contact.

Might not hurt to do some serious planning for some possibilites.

[GOP_1900AD]

Not to mention the scenario where the fusilade of warheads is delivered against the West and its Asian allies from the combined forces of the PRC, DPRK, Russia, other CIS, and Pakistan. Points of launch would likely be mostly mobile platforms (including "unfair" things such as TELs on "civilian" ships, etc.) and less reliant on fixed silos. Most of the megatonnage would be focused on our fixed silos, C4I, the half of our ICBM subs always in port, and, bases and deployments of strategic forces in general. Within minutes, via a surprise attack, the forces of the West and allies would suffer at least severe damage and at worst total defeat. Our ability to muster retaliatory counterforce or even countervalue strikes is hardly assured. Counterforce strikes also become highly problematic in response to a first strike launched from a dispersion of mobile enemy launch platforms. The ability of our retaliatory assets not to mention substantial portions of our C4I and military leadership to absorb a first strike per PDD60, is by no means assured. Whereas both Russia and the PRC have invested substantial resources (right up until the present) trying to harden their assets, and contigency planning for fighting and winning a nuclear war, we in the West have fallen into a self created mental trap. We long ago discounted the possibility of nuclear war between great powers and now have no fully developed plans to deal with it. We have gambled our entire strategy on treaties, scare tactics and diplomacy as means to "prevent nuclear war." A most unfortunate mistake!

[Squantos]

BTTT

[ALOHA RONNIE]

.."IS it SAFE?" = HILLARY on Senate Armed Services Committee..

http://www.TheAlamoFILM.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=629

[Jeff Head]

Was all over this thread from about post 63 to post 91.

The ChiComms continue to acquire as much newer technology as they can. In my series, they put these SU-30's to heavy use, and they begin license building them inside China in full production in the series, along with the other equipment I introduce in the books.

[Technogeeb]

The ChiComs will go with a sub blockade, IMO. Romeos and Mings will beused to take out merchant vessels and to serve as cannon fodder, while the ChiComs use their more advanced subs (Hans, Kilos and Songs) to take out anything we send to deal with the blockade

They would have to be remarkably clever in order to get something like this to work. Their older subs are so loud that detecting them from a distance isn't that hard, and while their newer diesel-electrics are much more quiet, they'll still have to move for a blockade to work and we can catch them on a cz with screw noise far beyond their effective torpedo range.

The only thing that I can see that would make such a strategy workable would be political failure on the part of the US (for example, another "Carter" in office at the time they try to pull it off). Of course, that's certainly within the realm of possibility, but it isn't a particularly pleasant thought...

[lavaroise]

The Chinese really aren't buying new stuff fast enough and in enough quantity to make up for the continuing rapid obsolescence of most of their forces....overall, arguably, they're getting weaker year by year, particularly in terms of their air force.

I don't think the Chinese are getting weaker in their abilities and intents to sin against us, get a grip.

[lavaroise]

The WAR against America continues... stay tuned.

That says it all about trans asian axis reality.

[lavaroise]

Despite the technology, if the history of the PLA is any indication, they won't be able to keep them flying.

Utter nonsense. They will sell the ropes with which we will hang them.... , need we say more?

[lavaroise]

What crash in Russia? Man does not live of bread alone. Nukes are vital sober medicine in fact.

[lavaroise]

I never denied that it was. I merely point out that, even with the significant improvements in capability that these weapon systems would afford, China still has a very weak military posture relative to ours.

So we should let them sin? Forgetabout it, you guys think China is building these so its people can keep praying Christ....

And in the light of how much trouble Saddam was with his little army.... people keep thinking China could not sin like it.... and why not????

[GOP_1900AD]

Naysayers fall into two major buckets. One bucket contains those who vastly underestimate the PRC, as a great power per se. They talk of pending civil wars, pending "Soviet style melt down," economic crisis and any number of other scenarios by which the China jugernaut becomes a flash in the pan. This view reflects a tremendous ignorance regarding the staying power of both dedicated Stalinist-Fascist-Corporatist regimes (which aptly describes the PRC) and of the Chinese culture. The second bucket are those who will admit that the PRC is not undergoing or slated for internal collapse, but rationalise their view by quoting the "official" knowledge regarding the PRC's military capabilities. This is highly naive, since the chances of covert military developments, be they ones that are in disregard of the FEW arms control treaties that the PRC have signed, or, are in compliance with them, is high. More than any other great power of modern record, the ability of the PRC to deny transparency and to deny even the most vigorous intelligence gathering attempts by the West, is legend. Our own intel orgs admitted as recently as 2 years ago that they had more case agents assigned to po dunk third rate monarchies in the Middle East than they did to the PRC! How can we gather decent intel with such an attitude in force? I pray that events prove me wrong.

[Tailgunner Joe]

bttt

[lavaroise]

China seem to hedge its bet between Russian and Western technology, and it is quite interesting to see that they have two prongs in their strategy: one of independent western type development, and the other the convenience of cheap yet effective Russian arms.

The big picture people are missing here is the comprehensive and serious approach of China. These people are not stupid, and it is strange to see the arrogance of some here about Chinese inabilities and disabilities when TAs and researchers at US universities teaching them some stuff come from China in great part...

[lavaroise]

On that note....


WHITE PAPER: RECOMMENDATIONS FOR CORPORATIONS IN SUPPORT OF HOMELAND SECURITY


February 14th, 2003 A.D.


Given the various strikes against the West and our allies, including the EP-3 attack, 9/11 and others, it has become abundantly clear to truly discerning analysts that massive conflict between the Trans-Asian Axis and ourselves, as described by such authors as Jan Senja, Anatoliy Golitsyn, J.R. Nyquist, Yossef Bodansky, Col. Lunev, and Dr. Alexandr Nemets, is inevitable.


In addition to overt threats posed by terrorism and WMD against the West and allies, there are dangerous behaviors that we, in the West and truly allied nations, theoretically have ultimate control over. What we are specifically referring to are behaviors demonstrated by certain corporations based in the US, or operating in the US, which, ultimately, based on the observation in the first paragraph, serve to undermine the security of the West and our allies.


Certain corporations have, for some years, done, and continue at present, to do, the following things:


A. Sell dual use items and technologies to customers in nation states whose goals include the destruction of the West and our allies.


B. Conduct operations in nations whose goals include the destruction of the West and our allies.


C. Recruit, hire and employ citizens of nations whose goals include the destruction of the West and our allies, both for assignments in their own nations, and, in the West and allied nations.


D. Source supplies and services from nations whose goals include the destruction of the West and our allies.


Based on the apparent geopolitical timbre of the times, these behaviors not only constitute a long term threat, due to the likely future supply and business interruptions, of corporations themselves, but may actually constitute treason, espionage and violation of the Patriot Act. In order to prevent any further damage to Homeland Security, the following explicit recommendations are made:


1.All employees of corporations based in or operating in the USA and abroad should be thoroughly investigated by the FBI, US Attorney, Homeland Security, and others as applicable, for treason, espionage and terrorist activity or support. This must include all managers and executives in order to be maximally effective.


2.All operations in, export to and sourcing from, the following nation states should be ended or proscribed by no later than June 1, 2003: The People's Republic of China, Russia and other former Soviet states, The Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Laos, Vietnam, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Sudan, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Angola, Brazil, Venezuela, Cuba, and, Libya.


3.Focussed investigations should be made by the CIA and DIA regarding operations involving MCST in Russia, the Russian government and governments of Soviet states, the government and army of the PRC (and companies partly held by them) as well as the government of Pakistan.


4.Aggressive prosecution, for any crimes described herein, of employees, management, executives, partners, board members and others having specific relationships with offending firms.


We surmise that only by taking aggressive action in these regards may we prevent further compromise of our Homeland Security and our position in coming military conflicts.


The Founders of the New Alliance, Concerned Employees and shareholders of General Electric, Concerned Employees and shareholders of Hewlett Packard, Concerned Employees and shareholders of Dell Computer, Concerned Employees and shareholders of Sun Microsystems, Concerned Employees and shareholders of Tyco, Concerned Employees and shareholders of Boeing, Concerned Employees and shareholders of General Motors, Concerned Employees and shareholders of IBM, Concerned Employees and shareholders of Daimler Chrysler, Concerned Employees and shareholders of Microsoft, Concerned Employees and shareholders of Cisco Systems, Concerned Employees and shareholders of Solectron, Concerned Employees and shareholders of Loral Space Systems, Concerned Employees and shareholders of Hughes.


CC: FBI, Homeland Security, U.S. Attorney

[lavaroise]

Proof of deception is the way these people prosecute themselves and own country's power incidentaly. I may be paranoiac (but I am not since I am aware of the natural conquest consumptions of China), but these people are in utter denial.

[Poohbah]

Not to mention the scenario where the fusilade of warheads is delivered against the West and its Asian allies from the combined forces of the PRC, DPRK, Russia, other CIS, and Pakistan.

Yeah. Great scenario. Several of these nations have mutual hostilities with each other.

Points of launch would likely be mostly mobile platforms (including "unfair" things such as TELs on "civilian" ships, etc.) and less reliant on fixed silos.

No fixed silos equals MUCH less accurate shooting, unless you're a Trident II boat--and the W-88 warhead is but one piece of that puzzle.

Most of the megatonnage would be focused on our fixed silos, C4I, the half of our ICBM subs always in port, and, bases and deployments of strategic forces in general.

Great. You just lobbed a lot of MTs, and most of them landed off-target relative to the Minuteman force.

When you strike at a king, you must kill him.

Within minutes, via a surprise attack, the forces of the West and allies would suffer at least severe damage and at worst total defeat.

How so? You do not have a convincing theory of victory here.

Our ability to muster retaliatory counterforce or even countervalue strikes is hardly assured.

Where are the alert Tridents again? You seem to assume they merely going to say "Well, shucks! Guess they hornswoggled us!"

Counterforce strikes also become highly problematic in response to a first strike launched from a dispersion of mobile enemy launch platforms.

In the scenario you just described, counterforce strikes aren't worth our time and effort--there's no force left to counter.

We will all go together when we go, every Hottentot and Eskimo...

The ability of our retaliatory assets not to mention substantial portions of our C4I and military leadership to absorb a first strike per PDD60, is by no means assured.

PDD 60 is from the PREVIOUS administration.

The previous owner of my house would not shoot any burglars. You feel like breaking in to my place tonight, based on that info?

Whereas both Russia and the PRC have invested substantial resources (right up until the present) trying to harden their assets, and contigency planning for fighting and winning a nuclear war, we in the West have fallen into a self created mental trap.

Thinking that "hardening" does you any favors against really accurate RVs is a prime example of a self-created mental trap.

It's like sticking the toughest helmet on your head...and then expecting to survive free-falling from 30,000 feet with no parachute just because you land head-first.

We long ago discounted the possibility of nuclear war between great powers and now have no fully developed plans to deal with it.

We ARE the great power, period.

But we do have plans to use the nukes if need be.

We have gambled our entire strategy on treaties, scare tactics and diplomacy as means to "prevent nuclear war." A most unfortunate mistake!

If nuclear war doesn't scare other national leaders, NOTHING will.

[Poohbah]

What crash in Russia?

Do you, perchance, recall the events of 1989-1991?

Man does not live of bread alone.

Fine. Please demonstrate the objective reality of that claim by abstaining from eating for a year, and I'll be happy to talk further with you.

Nukes are vital sober medicine in fact.

And a fat lot of good they did the ol' USSR, eh?