[One Sided Media]

Because of the concern about the incident at the launch involving the material that fell off of the structure between the shuttle and the main booster, had there been a great deal of damage I think the camera's around the launch pad would have picked up extensive damage on the surface beneath the wings. You would have to lose alot of tiles to increase the drag that is being talked about during the press conference.

To instigate the amount of force needed to counter rotate the shuttle to the degree that had to occur to bring the inertial controls significantly online as they were reporting today would take more then a few tiles falling off. So if I am right that the tiles are a red herring, I have to envision a situation where there is a gradual loss of control. If the shuttle slowly began dipping the left wing toward the earth with the inertial control system trying to counter it, I envision a slow see-sawing of the left wing dipping down and then partially, but not completely, correcting the attitude, with the resulting heat measurements over the left wing surface and upper left side of the fuselage rising as it is exposed more and more to the atmosphere. I don't know where the telemetry electronics and antenna are located, but it wouldn't surprise me if if was housed somewhere near the top of the fuselage and maybe even on the left hand side.

I believe the rise in temperatures after the loss of the telemetry dramatically increased, with the explosion that has been seen in the video all day long being the result.

I don't know how the elevon control structure works but a slow degredation of the attitude is consistent with the increasing temperature, before they it became critical, which occurred after the telemetry was lost.

[_Jim]

Because of the concern about the incident at the launch involving the material that fell off of the structure between the shuttle and the main booster, had there been a great deal of damage I think the camera's around the launch pad would have picked up extensive damage on the surface beneath the wings. You would have to lose alot of tiles to increase the drag that is being talked about during the press conference.

Comment: Damage, although not evident, could still be present. Damage could also have been inflicted to the doors covering the wheeel wells. This looks to be a more likely scenario given the sequence of temp sensors losses and/or elevated temps followed by their loss too.

Do you understand that *some* of what they were indicating was the *loss* of the wiring to various temp sensors?

This last point is VERY important. It means something was buring through or something was being ripped away. Ripped away!

To instigate the amount of force needed to counter rotate the shuttle to the degree that had to occur to bring the inertial controls significantly online as they were

Comment: Attitude control. And they are online during this portion of flight continuously.

The attitude controls were correcting for an apparent roll to the left. As time went on - more correction, more Elevon deflection, was required.

reporting today would take more then a few tiles falling off. So if I am right that the tiles are a red herring, I

Comment: At mach 18 - I don't know the numbers ... depending on where the tiles were lost - or perhaps it was a corner of the wheel-well doors ...

have to envision a situation where there is a gradual loss of control. If the shuttle slowly began dipping the left

Comment: At no point (yet) did they lose control - more 'trim' was being required as TIME went on - indicating, perhaps that tiles were being stripped off slowly ...

wing toward the earth with the inertial control system trying to counter it, I envision a slow see-sawing of the

Comment: Attitude control. More and more input to the Elevons to 'correct' for a tendency of the shuttle to 'roll' left - due to drag on the left side.

left wing dipping down and then partially, but not completely, correcting the attitude, with the resulting heat measurements over the left wing surface and upper left

Comment: Here's where you're wrong. The corrections from the Elevons appear to work here (later - who knows).

Also - you can't account for the gradual loss of the temp sensors during this time.

The only thing that makes sense is - there was a hole on the wing - leading edge, underneath at the wheel well or top - somewhere.

side of the fuselage rising as it is exposed more and more to the atmosphere. I don't know where the telemetry

Comment: Nope. Roll is indicated to be corrected for (so far).

electronics and antenna are located, but it wouldn't

Comment: On top. surprise me if if was housed somewhere near the top of the fuselage and maybe even on the left hand side.

I believe the rise in temperatures after the loss of the telemetry dramatically increased, with the explosion that has been seen in the video all day long being the result.

Comment: This sentence doesn't make sense to me!

We don't have *any* data after the loss of telemetry (data transmitted from the shuttle).

I don't know how the elevon control structure works but a slow degredation of the attitude is consistent with the

Comment: BUT - the attitude was corrected .. but something was dragging - what was it?

Wheel well door? Tiles? Elevon damage? Internal hydraulics?

increasing temperature, before they it became critical, which occurred after the telemetry was lost.

Comment: At some point - the continued inputs for attitude adjustment made by the flight could no longer correct for more 'drag' on the left. At that point - they were in mortal danger!

Burn-up would follow ... as they shuttle was no longer in a nose-up position with it's best heat shields (on the bottom basically) doing their job ...