Posted on 01/29/2003 9:09:24 AM PST by robowombat
Saddam's Nuclear Arsenal
Time magazine (January 12, 2003) published an interview with Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed El Baradei, who states Iraq is a long way from developing nuclear weapons.
Fantasy is fine for the silver screen and wonderful books late into the night, but when faced in the harsh light of present day geopolitical threats it is time to pull our heads out of the sand and open our eyes. There exists an unpleasant set of facts that suggests Saddam Hussein has not only developed Hiroshima type atomic bombs, but has successfully tested these weapons. Furthermore, Hussein did all of this prior to first Gulf War.
According to multiple sources, in 1986 Iraq formed a nuclear research program called Group 4. Saddam’s son-in-law, Hussein Kamel al-Majid directed the nuclear development. The primary scientists involved in the effort as Dr. Khalid Ibrahim Sayeed and Dr. Jafaar Dhia Jafaar (most recently seen at the U.N. negotiating with Secretary General Kofi Annan, regarding inspections [October 2002]). Group 4’s charter was the development of a uranium type weapon.
It is one thing to develop a nuclear weapon; it is an entirely different thing to test and prove the design. Iraq had two major problems: no fuel and testing without detection.
The fuel was acquired from Brazil through a South African front company. By 1989, Iraq had enough fuel to build three crude weapons. That is not a typo; the year was 1989—two years before Desert Storm.
A test site where the weapon could be detonated and remain undetected posed a more difficult prospect. Lake Rezzaza is 90 miles southwest of Baghdad. It was a popular resort during the 1960s. In the late eighties it assumed a more sinister attraction. Lake Rezzaza has a lava cave that extends under the lake, and unless satellites were tasked to search for the cave it remained invisible.
Iraq has proven to be masters of camouflage, and the Group 4 project was no exception. Lake Rezzaza transformed into an irrigation and farming project. From the God’s eye view provided by satellite reconnaissance, the entire project appeared benign. It needs to be remembered that in the late eighties, the primary focus of western intelligence was the Soviet Union, and Israel’s space based assets were extremely limited to non-existent. Finally, Iraq was engaged in a bloody and fruitless slugfest with Iran— something American policy makers tacitly cheered.
The work force consisted of political prisoners and a specialized scientific cadre. Security fell to the Special Republican Guard. The cave under Lake Rezzaza was extended and reinforced. Work stopped on a schedule dictated by orbiting American satellites. Russia or China or both probably supplied the schedules.
Group 4 erected an elaborate scaffold inside the main cavern beneath the lake. The purpose was to hide the effects of the constellation of Defense Support Program satellites designed to detect the nuclear detonation flash (among other things). They also needed to dampen the blast effects to avoid seismic detectors. The scaffold suspended the weapon inside the cavern and the yield was estimated to be approximately 10 kilotons. Once armed, the cavern leading beneath the lake was back filled and sealed with 4 kilometers of concrete.
One September 19, 1989, 10:30 A.M. local time Khalid and Jafaar detonated the bomb. The event registered 2.7 on the Richter scale on the nearby University of Sulaymaniyah’s seismometer. The doomed prisoners collapsed the mouth of the cavern using conventional explosives and washed down the entrance to dilute any radioactive leakage. Those hardy enough to survive the ordeal were ordered shot and buried in nearby caves by Hussein Kamel al-Majid.
The scientists responsible for the bomb’s development live under a pending death sentence should they talk.
There were two other weapons created by Group 4. Rumors place these weapons in underground bunkers somewhere in the Hemrin Mountains north of Baghdad. The sketches accompanying this article are allegedly from a defector known as LEONE. According to nuclear bomb designers, the design depicted is unconventional but workable.
A couple of questions need asking:
If Saddam had a nuke, why didn’t he use it during the Gulf War? I speculate that Saddam lacked a credible delivery system. Remember Saddam’s air force had an average flight time measured in seconds before AWACS directed aircraft shot Iraqi planes down. It is unlikely Group 4 had time to develop a warhead design capable of fusing and surviving a ballistic missile launch.
Does Saddam currently have nuclear weapons? Besides Group 4, Saddam commissioned Group 5. The purpose of the second group was to develop a thermo-nuclear device. There is no known way to light off a hydrogen bomb and hide the effects. Saddam has had five years since the UNSCOM teams under Richard Butler were expelled. He may have had time to perfect a delivery system. The counterbalance is the technological advancements for the United States. If Saddam has a delivery system, it is probably vehicle based. It is doubtful the Saddam will have any better luck in getting his planes into the air.
However, anyone who states Saddam is five to fifteen years away from developing nuclear weapons, only has to examine the Korean peninsula or the Pakistan/India border. If they can do it, so can Saddam. These states have made it clear that they have nuclear weapons in an effort to deter others from leveraging military force. This is a defensive strategy.
Saddam continues to deny the existence of any WMD. It suggests he intends to use WMD against American forces, daring the White House to respond in kind. We do know that during the first Gulf War, the Bush White House issued an ultimatum that any WMD would be met with show stopping force. It is unlikely in light of September 11, the current Bush White House has backed away from such a policy.
There remains the other possibility that Saddam intends to depart this world in a blaze of glory and hopes to take as many us with him as possible. Personally, I think we should have put a .308 between his eyes a long time ago. Certainly it would have been cheaper and safer than the war we are about to join
Hank
The signiture was not hidden. As the article states:
The event registered 2.7 on the Richter scale on the nearby University of Sulaymaniyah’s seismometer.
Our seismic network was presumably deployed to detect testing in the USSR and the PRC. Maybe it cannot detect testing in Iraq.
Still, I remain skeptical. The official US government position is that Iraq has not yet tested a nuclear device. Until my error is demonstrated, I will presume that we would have detected any such testing.
I do not argue that Iraq must have tested nuclear weapons before an assault is justified. We cannot allow Saddam Hussein to even come close to developing nuclear weapons. His chemical and biological weapons programs are also ample justification for a pre-emptive attack. Anyone who develops an aflatoxin weapon must be stopped!
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