Study: GOP to dominate for generation

WND ^ | December 4, 2002 | Jon Dougherty

[hchutch]

LOL.

True... but I don't buy into PC nonsense.

[u-89]

There are way too many variables to make such a prediction. 1st if it weren't for the war the GOP might not have faired so well against Democrat attacks this past year. Second increasing numbers of immigrants could tip the balance back to the Dems. Then there is vote fraud. There is the GOP itself aka. The Stupid Party. They're good at screwing things up or depressing the base. Next if the war goes wrong somehow or a major economic downturn occurs the GOP will be wiped out.

On the plus side the malcontents over the immigration issue will still vote GOP just out of fear over a Dem winning. They can carp all they want but they're not going anywhere just like conservatives who cry about RINOs and the establishment. Also a plus for Bush and the GOP is that they have recognized the reality that we are a socialist welfare state and old fashioned conservatism is dead so they are forging a new centrist party. They will not try to out liberal the liberals they will paint the liberals and the old conservatives as out of the main stream. They will forward a pragmatic "workable" governance program and go after the undecided voters and centrist Dems. This could be a long term winning "stra-tee-gery". From my libertarian point of view it might not be so keen but from cold analytical perspective it's workable.

[Poohbah]

Second increasing numbers of immigrants could tip the balance back to the Dems.

Especially if the GOP manages to make itself vulnerable to charges that they are anti-immigrant in general. They did that in 1994 in California. (I thought they recruited David Duke to design some of the campaign ads for Proposition 187.)

They're good at screwing things up or depressing the base.

Well, the base didn't sure didn't show up in 2000. The unappeasables did their worst, so they'd better get used to the idea that anything they get from now on is a freebie, because Bush doesn't owe them a damn thing.

Next if the war goes wrong somehow or a major economic downturn occurs the GOP will be wiped out.

Reread the article--the war and the economy are closely interlinked.

Bush has communicated quite clearly that this is going to be a long war, not a Clintonesque "Wag the Dog." And the Democrats have gone out of their way to make themselves look like abject idiots on the subject. One major disaster in the war on terror will not grant them instant credibility.

[u-89]

Regarding the war I did not say the Dems could look credible in anything. I said something going wrong could wipe out the GOP. Small actions and quick battles are one thing, a long drawn out mess is something else. Can you imagine the political fallout if we had a Bat. ambushed and wiped out here, a Regt. there, or a long occupation and a heavy volumn of terrorist attacks resulting? Or the whole region going up in flames , a draft? I am not saying these things will happen but they are potential happenings. As I started out my comments - "many variables" and a foriegn policy disaster COULD wipe out the GOP. Nothing spectacular in that statement. Think Rove never thought of it?

[Poohbah]

Regarding the war I did not say the Dems could look credible in anything. I said something going wrong could wipe out the GOP.

In order for that to happen, the Democrats would have to have more credibility than the GOP does.

And thanks to their abject idiocy since about October of last year, there is no way in hell that they will get that, even with the massively unlikely scenario you propose.

In general, BTW, if you do not understand what the military is, what it does, or how it does it...the simplest rule is to bet on the Americans. Mogadishu was far less about Osama "winning" as it was about Bill Clinton losing control of his bladder because he's a coward.

[u-89]

In order for that to happen, the Democrats would have to have more credibility than the GOP does.

No the GOP to look less credible or in others words, faith in their leadership shattered in which case Dems win by default.

if you do not understand what the military is, what it does, or how it does it...

That sounds a bit condescending Pooh. Don't let your faith effect your reading comprehension. My statements outlined possiblities. Possiblity meaning things that can happen. "Can" does not equal inevitability. And that "massively unlikely scenario" which you dismiss has been brought up by US generals on TV and in print. When planning a war it is best that all things be considered. Same could be said for plans to rule for a generation.

[TRY ONE]

"GOP to dominate for generation ..."

Is this sorta like two years ago:
"The budget surplus is here for ~10 more years!!

[Poohbah]

No the GOP to look less credible or in others words, faith in their leadership shattered in which case Dems win by default.

It doesn't work that way. The GOP has to lose ENOUGH credibility for that result to come about, and that is a LOT vis-a-vis the Dems, who have yet to figure out the simple logic of "when you find yourself in a hole, stop digging."

if you do not understand what the military is, what it does, or how it does it...

That sounds a bit condescending Pooh.

Only because you've earned the condescension.

And that "massively unlikely scenario" which you dismiss has been brought up by US generals on TV and in print.

Yeah, brought up by the former perfumed princes of Clinton era, who know about as much about real war as they do about fornicating, at least in a heterosexual mode.

[truth_seeker]

"Was Rasmussen's prediction made before or after the Dubyuh DUI story broke?!"

Your point is well taken. I watched his polls, posted gleefully here on FR, in the weeks leading up to the election. They showed Bush up by a comfortable margin.

Then the DUI, which was brushed off (or so we thought). I don't recall that Rasmussen's polls were frequent enough, to show an impact.

I sent an e-mail, to Rasmussen, asking him for an analysis, of the missed prediction, in 2000.

[TaRaRaBoomDeAyGoreLostToday!]

bump for later reading!

[TaRaRaBoomDeAyGoreLostToday!]

[Willie Green]

"One of the surprises in the data … was that the economy and war issues were intertwined, almost as a single issue. As international tensions rose, the economy suffered, so one of the best economic policies for the president to follow was to focus on national security problems."

Following the 9/11 travesty, it's not surprising at all that this was true for the 2002 elections. However, it is unlikely that it will hold for '04, let alone a whole "generation". And sadly, Dubya's pushing all the wrong economic/trade/immigration buttons to turn things around.

The article is more wishful thinking than thoughtful analysis.

[Texasforever]

So Pat has a chance?

[Willie Green]

So Pat has a chance?

I think Pat has the answers, but not the chance.
I told Miss Marple on another thread earlier that I think whoever
follows Bush in '04 will likely be 1000 times worse from my perspective.
But that doesn't alter my opinion of Bush's policies.
IMHO, he's sowing the seeds of his own defeat.

[Texasforever]

If he loses he loses.

[Mudboy Slim]

"Then the DUI, which was brushed off (or so we thought)."

I've had a theory that the DUI was--in fact--"brushed off" by the Voters, but it provided cover for the RATS to implement their RampantVoteFRaudPlan wherein the ballots contradicted all the polls running up to the election. Seriously, how many folks are soooo STOOOOOPID that they'd vote fer a lowlife scumbag like Algore just to punish Dubyuh fer something he did as a young man?! Fer Heaven's Sake, we know for a fact that Algore spent the majority of his 20's in a MaryJewWanna-induced stoned-out funk, and folks want him with his finger on the nuke-ular button instead of a teetotaller who messed up a generation prior?! It don't pass the smell test fer me...MUD

[TaRaRaBoomDeAyGoreLostToday!]

The demon queens will hiss like the ranchid demons from hell they are...

[Salvation]

Traditional Values Coalition

Democrats Face Minority Status For Generation

Thursday, December 05 @ 20:31:10 EST


Summary: Two recent analyses of the future of the Democratic Party show that it may be relegated to minority status for the next generation as voters shift allegiance to the Republican Party.

National Review and WorldNetDaily have reported that recent polls and surveys indicate that the Democratic Party is losing power and may be relegated to minority status for the next generation.

Byron York with National Review reported on November 12, 2002 that a significant number of voters believe the Democratic Party is failing to respond properly to our nation’s war on terrorism—and that the Republicans are doing the right thing. Sixty-four percent of those polled by Gallup say the GOP is tough enough on terrorism; only 34% said Democrats were tough enough.

The poll also found 57% of those polled believe that the Republicans are doing the right thing on our economy. Sixty-percent also were encouraged that Republican control of the Senate would allow President Bush to get his judicial nominees approved.

To read Byron York’s article, go here: http://www.nationalreview.com/york/york111202.asp

WorldNetDaily also reported on the future demise of the Democratic Party on December 4, 2002. WND published the results of a post-election analysis of pollster Scott Rasmussen who wrote “The GOP Generation.” According to the introduction to this report: “Building upon proprietary survey data…[the report] explains underlying issues, trends and other factors moving the nation to a lasting Republican majority.”

According to Rasmussen: “What I see is that because of the performance of the president in the past couple of years, the Republicans are now truly a majority party, and it’s a lot deeper than I or other analysts first thought.”

To read more on this: WorldNetDaily: Study: GOP to dominate for generation

To learn more details about Rasmussen’s report, go to: The GOP Generation